A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 6z GEFS had a few pretty members. Hopefully the number of members on board at 12z cotinues to slowly increase. It's nice to see the seemingly omnipresent day 10 storm finally move closer to a range when we can realistically start tracking the players on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 3, 2012 Author Share Posted December 3, 2012 first storm in a while that has my attention...actually looking forward to checking out the ensembles I wonder how long before a civil war will break out in here. We all say that we just want a storm to track, but you know it will incite rage in people when they don't get the storm, and others do. (I felt like this during the Dec 8-9, 2009 blizzard) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I wonder how long before a civil war will break out in here. We all say that we just want a storm to track, but you know it will incite rage in people when they don't get the storm, and other do. (I felt like this during the Dec 8-9, 2009 blizzard) I would be happy either way. If we get a major storm this go around cool, if it moves to the se into the heart of this sub forum cool as well,as it will fit nicely with my overall winter forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 One of my favorites! However, like Bow said, this will probably be a rain storm. A repeat of 2/5-6/2008 would be awesome! Probably have at least part of the storm rain. Hopefully the air mass north of the low will be plenty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 It would appear that the 12z GFS solution would give freezing rain to southern central and eastern Ontario with the first system, at least at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 12z GFS was a step in the right direction from the 0z run trying to have the wave come out in one piece and not stall. This is going to be a tough one to pin down for awhile. Going to be dependent on the the trof configuration and if it can go negative tilt or not and when. Several other systems during the same timeframe that could hinder max potential as well. I can't remember a cutter threat all last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 A repeat of 2/5-6/2008 would be awesome! Probably have at least part of the storm rain. Hopefully the air mass north of the low will be plenty cold. The great thing about that storm here was that it was basically all snow; even when the light precip started around 4 or 5pm on February 5, it was a wet snow at 33F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 12z GFS was a step in the right direction from the 0z run trying to have the wave come out in one piece and not stall. This is going to be a tough one to pin down for awhile. Going to be dependent on the the trof configuration and if it can go negative tilt or not and when. Several other systems during the same timeframe that could hinder max potential as well. I can't remember a cutter threat all last winter it's nice to see something.... DVN touches on model hokey pokey... maybe we get some pacific winter weather flights pegged for mid-late week if things keep up..... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 550 AM CST MON DEC 3 2012 SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SCHC/CHC POPS FOR EACH PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE RESPECTIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE HIGHLY VARIED AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN. MOST OF THIS VARIABILITY IS TRACEABLE TO THE RESPECTIVE MODEL PHYSICS AND HOW EACH IS ATTEMPTING TO PHASE VARIOUS ENERGIES TO PRODUCE STORM SYSTEMS. THE FLOW PATTERN OF THE ATMOSPHERE INDICATES AN UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE WX PATTERN WITH A TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WHEN ONE LOOKS AT THE OVERALL ENERGY BUDGET OF THE ATMOSPHERE...IT IS SUPPORTIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM. IF SUCH A SYSTEM DOES DEVELOP...IT WOULD BE NONLINEAR IN NATURE AND THUS ANY MODEL WOULD HAVE A VERY POOR HANDLE ON ITS DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION FROM RUN TO RUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 12z GFS was a step in the right direction from the 0z run trying to have the wave come out in one piece and not stall. This is going to be a tough one to pin down for awhile. Going to be dependent on the the trof configuration and if it can go negative tilt or not and when. Several other systems during the same timeframe that could hinder max potential as well. I can't remember a cutter threat all last winter I'm pretty sure there were some weak cutters, but nothing like what many of the models and ensembles of these models have been showing. Heck, there was even a warm cutter in November 2011 that had a very thin stripe of mod/heavy snow in the Upper Midwest. There was nothing of that sort this November, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Probably doesn't mean much at this time frame but the GEFS mean is well north of the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Probably doesn't mean much at this time frame but the GEFS mean is well north of the operational. I've always taken that as a bad sign for southern solutions, especially if many individual members are north and it's not being heavily skewed by just a couple. That being said, it's still a ways out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I've always taken that as a bad sign for southern solutions, especially if many individual members are north and it's not being heavily skewed by just a couple. That being said, it's still a ways out. Given we're talking about a convoluted scenario where multiple pieces come out at different times...it would be easy for the mean to be easily polluted....i suspect the first piece that comes off remains dominant on quite a few members. Either way, it's north of the OP but not anything crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I'm pretty sure there were some weak cutters, but nothing like what many of the models and ensembles of these models have been showing. Heck, there was even a warm cutter in November 2011 that had a very thin stripe of mod/heavy snow in the Upper Midwest. There was nothing of that sort this November, though. It appears we will not be bombarbed by a never ending string of cutoff lows this season...thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Super Tuesday 2008 being thrown around, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 3, 2012 Author Share Posted December 3, 2012 I don't think anyone can reasonably speculate on the track at this point, especially when there could be phasing involved. I don't think the models handle that very well this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Some ensemble members actually try to develop something interest interesting in parts of minnesota on friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Given we're talking about a convoluted scenario where multiple pieces come out at different times...it would be easy for the mean to be easily polluted....i suspect the first piece that comes off remains dominant on quite a few members. Either way, it's north of the OP but not anything crazy. P008 and P009 are probably messing with the mean...who knows which is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Probably doesn't mean much at this time frame but the GEFS mean is well north of the operational. Well the OP is well SE, so that doesn't surprise me one bit. A couple hundred miles SE of the Euro for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Lots of impressive severe verbatims on that ensemble suite... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Lots of impressive severe verbatims on that ensemble suite... the agreement on a pretty major storm is actually quite good on this run...some monsters in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 P007 is just nasty...P004, 002 and 001 are no slouches either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Notice the EPO ridge on all of the verbatims, in addition to the Bermuda/ST high being in an ideal position for strong and timely moisture advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 The great thing about that storm here was that it was basically all snow; even when the light precip started around 4 or 5pm on February 5, it was a wet snow at 33F. Here on the 5th there was a brief period of light snow/freezing drizzle then it went over to all snow as it approached midnight going into the 6th. The temperatures was at 32-33° until about 1 pm the next day, when heavier snow brought temperatures down closer to 30°. Amounts really cut off as you got south of Waukegan. That was a 15" storm here. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/?n=020608_snow I'm not going to get caught up with this storms track for several days yet! Way too early to be stressing out on the track! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 3, 2012 Author Share Posted December 3, 2012 Just booted up my weather system to start collecting data on this event. I thought for sure I was going to have it shut down for at least a week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Here on the 5th there was a brief period of light snow/freezing drizzle then it went over to all snow as it approached midnight going into the 6th. The temperatures was at 32-33° until about 1 pm the next day, when heavier snow brought temperatures down closer to 30°. Amounts really cut off as you got south of Waukegan. That was a 15" storm here. http://www.crh.noaa..../?n=020608_snow I'm not going to get caught up with this storms track for several days yet! Way too early to be stressing out on the track! lol For sure, all I'm going to say is P003 or P004 please on the 12z ensembles! Those are great Central Lakes cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Euro should be interesting. not sure I buy the op gfs 2 part deal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Euro has a very tight gradient at H5 associated with the wave that carves out the trough over the Pac NW at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Euro should be interesting. not sure I buy the op gfs 2 part deal.. Well at 150 it's a storm, not the most intense one (between 1000 and 1004 mb). We are in the coldest rain possible, and there are light to moderate snows in the typical areas that see a blizzard with Western Lakes cutters (NW half of Wisconsin, southern half of Minnesota, etc.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 the euro is right there within the general range of solutions on the table right now...in fact the spread is pretty thin all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 the euro is right there within the general range of solutions on the table right now...in fact the spread is pretty thin all things considered. At this juncture I agree. I'm sure there will be some kooky runs in there at times, so we have to remain patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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