Thundersnow12 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 The potential is there for something potentially big if anything like the GFS were to verify...IF the system as a whole were to eject out and continue moving ESE like it shows at 156/162hr and not kinda stall over the four corners region and stay with the positive tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Not sure what all this negative 00z GFS talk is about, I could easily see a solution like that happening, if anything like TS mentioned if the thing comes out all at once vs hanging back in the SW it could really be an amplified system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 0z Euro looks to have a Plains/Upper Midwest blizzard at the beginning of this timeframe (the 9th). Wouldn't surprise me at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Wow the 0z Euro just took a huge jump to the 0z GFS, totally different look than the 12z run. Has the potent wave diving southeast out of the pac NW, trof almost goes neutral tilt and a sfc low runs along a very tight baroclinic zone ( 8 deg at 850mb near the IA/IL border to -16 deg in central NE. Sfc low runs from DBQ-GRB around 996mb and deepens. This is what can happen if it comes out in one piece and doesn't stall over the southwest. Also much earlier too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Euro is very fast and very very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Wow the 0z Euro just took a huge jump to the 0z GFS, totally different look than the 12z run. Has the potent wave diving southeast out of the pac NW, trof almost goes neutral tilt and a sfc low runs along a very tight baroclinic zone ( 8 deg at 850mb near the IA/IL border to -16 deg in central NE. Sfc low runs from DBQ-GRB around 996mb and deepens. This is what can happen if it comes out in one piece and doesn't stall over the southwest. Also much earlier too. Would be quite the blizzard for Kansas/Nebraska/W Iowa and up into MN. of course on the warm side of things it would be probably something we haven't seen in a while, a severe weather outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 It's amazing how much it changed in one run. The 12z run was super suppressed. 1012mb in south TX was the lowest pressure for the same timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 That is definately a true arctic outbreak on the Euro. Looks like single digit to negative surface temps all the way down to NE Nebraska and NW Iowa by hour 180. 12 hours until it shows something different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 3, 2012 Author Share Posted December 3, 2012 That is definately a true arctic outbreak on the Euro. Looks like single digit to negative surface temps all the way down to NE Nebraska and NW Iowa by hour 180. 12 hours until it shows something different. Well the AO is progged to go negative sharply. Should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 had pretty good feeling the euro would look a lot more impressive..potential for a big storm is there like t-snow has mentioned.. now will it show any consistency after ramming a low through WI or morph in to something like the previous system in Nov that had a low through WI in the early stage for a run. doubt its anything like last storm... thinking something of a congrats MN or eastern lakes as my early favorites. hopefully a congrats MN/N-WI to lay some snow down where its needed the most in dec. Just plz have there be something worthwhile to track even if its a rain event here which is the still my most likely outcome if it comes together like I think it could. What a bunch of ramble bs lol..especially this far out and with so many possibilities on the table from New England back to Nebraska or even something that's just, meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Nice well water topper offer for Geos on the 06z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Love how accuweather is handling this for my area. High of 50, low of 13. Mix of snow and rain. So either they are on to something sweeping thru, or they are keeping their options open....wide open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Nice well water topper offer for Geos on the 06z GFS. Glad to see it on the models! Finally something to track this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 That secondary system on the GFS looks a hell of a lot like the strom on Feb 6th 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 a decent storm somewhere with a couple days of the OP range is looking like a decent bet…cold air looks to be late to the party so I'd favor a pretty narrow stripe of snow…and lean hard on further north/west solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 That secondary system on the GFS looks a hell of a lot like the strom on Feb 6th 2008. One of my favorites! However, like Bow said, this will probably be a rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 One of my favorites! However, like Bow said, this will probably be a rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 If it is a blinding rainstorm like that, I'm all for it. We need the rain after a bone dry November, the only heavy rainstorm we have had this fall was the mid-October storm. As for the snow part of this storm, early call is for a storm much like we saw in early to mid December of both 2009 and 2010. MSP, La Crosse, perhaps Green Bay, watch out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 If it is a blinding rainstorm like that, I'm all for it. We need the rain after a bone dry November, the only heavy rainstorm we have had this fall was the mid-October storm. As for the snow part of this storm, early call is for a storm much like we saw in early to mid December of both 2009 and 2010. MSP, La Crosse, perhaps Green Bay, watch out! Left turn lane is filling up. Hopefully get some snow on the ground to the NW so DaddyLongSexyLegs can get his 25 degree below temps he wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 We're getting close to the range where we can start looking for trends as far as timing/location/strength of the Pac energy into the west coast...model discrepencies by day 6 aren't totally awful and hopefully we'll start to see small movements towards a consensus over the next few days. storm is alive and well on the 12z GFS and should be stronger than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I can see ample evidence to justify a more se track than what the Euro operational track is showing. Euro op: Euro ensemble: UKMET: some of the GFS ensemble members so it as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I'm going to try to avoid talking too much about track this far out...but big storm potential is certainly looking worlds better than anything year-to-date. Usual timing/trough placement issues aside...the pieces are all there. going negative and looking good by 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I'm going to try to avoid talking too much about track this far out...but big storm potential is certainly looking worlds better than anything year-to-date. Usual timing/trough placement issues aside...the pieces are all there. agreed, but it's still fun to speculate about what the models will show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 GFS looks like it's trying to make the third piece of energy to eject out of the W coast trough the prime snowstorm threat. But I'm still not convinced that the 2nd piece doesn't trend colder. Wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 GFS looks like it's trying to make the third piece of energy to eject out of the W coast the prime snowstorm threat. But I'm still not convinced that the 2nd piece doesn't trend colder. Wait and see. first storm in a while that has my attention...actually looking forward to checking out the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Fantasy land mixed bag of crap here on the 12z GFS. But I'd embrace it for the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 first storm in a while that has my attention...actually looking forward to checking out the ensembles The ensembles have been interesting in this timeframe for days now. Nice to see, but in the past, the ensembles have always been more interesting than the reality, partly because the GFS enjoyed making something out of even boring frontal passages in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 first storm in a while that has my attention...actually looking forward to checking out the ensembles 6z GEFS had a few pretty members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 GFS looks like it's trying to make the third piece of energy to eject out of the W coast trough the prime snowstorm threat. But I'm still not convinced that the 2nd piece doesn't trend colder. Wait and see. I'm not sure if you saw my post earlier but I mentioned about how that secondary system looks exactly like feb 6 2008. Remember that one Mike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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