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December 9-11, 2012 (Winter?) Storm


weathergy

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Few reports out of SE WI

0100 PM SNOW 4 WNW LAKE MILLS 43.10N 88.98W 12/09/2012 M3.6 INCH JEFFERSON WI PUBLIC PAST 8 HOURS.

0115 PM SNOW 2 E HOLY HILL 43.24N 88.29W 12/09/2012 M1.2 INCH WASHINGTON WI PUBLIC

Rain just ending here. Temperature looks to stay near steady for awhile, before it cools this evening.

-Turtle: Did Cat 1 like the snow?

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Yeah, dont get me wrong, I hate them right now but 2010-11 was the only above normal snow season in the last 8 years, whereas everyone else (outside of da U.P.) is running a huge surplus. Plus, count me in the camp that I dont mind laying down a little snowcover up there. Speaking of 2010-11, I wish there was some way to figure it out...I will bet you the winter of 2010-11 laid down the more snow in the non-mountainous U.S. than ever before.

I've been working on a "long time" project, trying to rank the harshest winters in the Midwest. It's been a chore trying to figure out how to exactly do that...but I have accumulated a lot of data thus far. Nevertheless, I did a season snowfall ranking for the Midwest as one of the factors, using all the first order sites (42 in all)...and 2010-11 is the 3rd snowiest, behind 1977-78 and 1981-82. Hopefully someday I'll figure it all out and be ready to post my research. :D

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It would be a close call as temps are marginal. Possibly a sloppy inch or two for areas in the northeast part of the state verbatim:

CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL_48HR.gif

Isn't there a lot of cold air aloft though, That would cool the surface temperature to freezing wouldn't it.

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I've been working on a "long time" project, trying to rank the harshest winters in the Midwest. It's been a chore trying to figure out how to exactly do that...but I have accumulated a lot of data thus far. Nevertheless, I did a season snowfall ranking for the Midwest as one of the factors, using all the first order sites (42 in all)...and 2010-11 is the 3rd snowiest, behind 1977-78 and 1981-82. Hopefully someday I'll figure it all out and be ready to post my research. :D

I cannot WAIT to see that list! If theres ANYTHING I can do to help, please pm me. also...would be cool to rank the LEAST harsh as well, you know, see where 2011-12 REALLY falls on the scale. I would say a good way to determine harshness would be looking at snowfall, snowcover, and temperature DEPARTURES for a given area. Like, for instance, a winter like 2007-08 at Detroit...4th snowiest on record, and while snowcover was above normal, it doesn't even make the top 25 for most 1"+ snowcover days, nor was it significantly cold. It was a snowlovers dream, but perhaps not as "harsh" as previous winters that may have seen much less snowfall.

Perhaps a 5-part formula of 2 parts total snowfall, 1 part biggest snowstorm/frequency of big snowstorms, 1 part snowcover, 1 part temperature?

I can tell you at Detroit....

1977-78: 12th snowiest, 1st most 1"+ snowcover days

1981-82: 3rd snowiest, 2nd (tied) most 1"+ snowcover days

2010-11: 5th snowiest (tied), 9th most 1"+ snowcover days

(fwiw...2011-12: 23rd least snowy, 9th (tied) least 1"+ snowcover days).

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I cannot WAIT to see that list! If theres ANYTHING I can do to help, please pm me. also...would be cool to rank the LEAST harsh as well, you know, see where 2011-12 REALLY falls on the scale. I would say a good way to determine harshness would be looking at snowfall, snowcover, and temperature DEPARTURES for a given area. Like, for instance, a winter like 2007-08 at Detroit...4th snowiest on record, and while snowcover was above normal, it doesn't even make the top 25 for most 1"+ snowcover days, nor was it significantly cold. It was a snowlovers dream, but perhaps not as "harsh" as previous winters that may have seen much less snowfall.

Perhaps a 5-part formula of 2 parts total snowfall, 1 part biggest snowstorm/frequency of big snowstorms, 1 part snowcover, 1 part temperature?

I can tell you at Detroit....

1977-78: 12th snowiest, 1st most 1"+ snowcover days

1981-82: 3rd snowiest, 2nd (tied) most 1"+ snowcover days

2010-11: 5th snowiest (tied), 9th most 1"+ snowcover days

(fwiw...2011-12: 23rd least snowy, 9th (tied) least 1"+ snowcover days).

I'm ranking them best to worst. Season snowfall ranking wise, overall for the region...2011-12 is at the bottom. Of course, I'm doing this for the entire Midwest (IL, IN, IA, KY, MO, MI, MN, OH, and WI).

My original criteria was temperatures, snowfall, snowstorms of significance, and a few other things. It's a ton of work to be honest. Hopefully I'll get motivated...or have the time to dive back into it soon. Appreciate the thoughts/ideas and help. I may take you up on it at some point.

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Isn't there a lot of cold air aloft though, That would cool the surface temperature to freezing wouldn't it.

That's not quite how it works.

You would need intense vertical motion and moisture tapping into that colder air aloft (thus heavy snowfall rates) before it manages to have any impact on surface temperatures through the wet-bulbing process, beyond general CAA.

Even per the 12z NAM, there's still a warm layer around 2,000 to 2,500 feet to erode before one can talk about any appreciable back-side snow tomorrow. There is some lift and moisture in the DGZ early in the evening tomorrow, I don't think the snowfall rates it would be enough to completely erode the residual warm layer.

omeg.png

temp.png

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yeah was just thinking the same thing. Now a red box in AR with a tornado warning where the gulf moisture is.

Sucks the potential had to go to waste. Could of had a big cutter.

Yep, it's a disjointed failure but it's still going to be a killer snowstorm for a major metro which is cool

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Guelph, ON getting a little nasty. Freezing rain/snow mix right now, solid ground level wind. Stepped outside and was blasted with ice pellets. Ground has a thin layer of ice in some places.

Little-no snow accumulation but I'm enjoying this short blast of winter until we switch over to rain.

Temperature: -0.6 °C

Wind Speed: E 28 km/h gust 44 km/h

Wind Chill: -8 C

Dew Point: -1.0 °C

Relative Humidity: 98%

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Looks like this is the top dog...so far. 0311 PM SNOW SACRED HEART 44.78N 95.35W 12/09/2012 M17.3 INCH RENVILLE MN TRAINED SPOTTER SNOW ENDED...ONE BLOCK VISIBILITY IN TOWN...WINDY.

that's a real deal total

Somewhere around 8" OTG at MSP.

METAR KMSP 092153Z 04009KT 1/4SM R30L/2600V2800FT SN FZFG VV006 M01/M01 A2983 RMK AO2 SLP114 SNICR 1/8 P0000 T10111011

Looking at radar, they should easily tack on 1-3"

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