Jonger Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Euro is in, looks awful, storm track suppressed to the south and east, at 240hrs we now get into a warmer zonal flow, once again. Glad I stuck with my merger guess of 3.8" for MSP in Dec. Our cold pattern that looked so good yesterday is now in some doubt.... The ensembles show seasonal cold, but not the trough we had on the long range yesterday. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 GFS doesn't seem to know which piece of energy is going to be the dominant one. This run (6z) seems to prefer a later storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Our cold pattern that looked so good yesterday is now in some doubt.... The ensembles show seasonal cold, but not the trough we had on the long range yesterday. Jon I agree. It seems like the models are starting to back away from the cold. What a surprise. I'm telling you, if people want winter these days, they should go to Europe. It seems their winters have been trending colder over the past few years whiile our's have been trending warmer. GFS doesn't seem to know which piece of energy is going to be the dominant one. This run (6z) seems to prefer a later storm. The 12z GFS solution for this storm is horrific for travellers such as myself. It would seem to imply freezing rain in the Ottawa Valley on a day (Sunday 9th) that I was planning on making a day trip up there from Toronto. I want a storm, but would much rather it arrive on the monday morning. I guess you can't cherry pick what you want though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 I agree. It seems like the models are starting to back away from the cold. What a surprise. I'm telling you, if people want winter these days, they should go to Europe. It seems their winters have been trending colder over the past few years whiile our's have been trending warmer. The 12z GFS solution for this storm is horrific for travellers such as myself. It would seem to imply freezing rain in the Ottawa Valley on a day (Sunday 9th) that I was planning on making a day trip up there from Toronto. I want a storm, but would much rather it arrive on the monday morning. I guess you can't cherry pick what you want though. THat is for sure. I've noticed a big difference when it comes to winters, especially in Germany. I spoke with my aunt this morning, and she told me that they have a foot of snow on the ground. I'm from Germany originally, and don't remember winters even being extreme at all. However, it seems like climate change/pattern whatever you wan to call it, really happened. The past few winter have been crazy around that part of the world. Now here in the U/S to me it seems like Summers are much warmer across the Eastern part of the country and winters milder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 2, 2012 Author Share Posted December 2, 2012 Shifted the time frame past the weekend as it looks more like this storm is going to come later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Shifted the time frame past the weekend as it looks more like this storm is going to come later. Or we could, you know, wait until we actually have one single storm threat before we start a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Or we could, you know, wait until we actually have one single storm threat before we start a thread. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 2, 2012 Author Share Posted December 2, 2012 Or we could, you know, wait until we actually have one single storm threat before we start a thread. Or you could, you know, along with the others that disagree, ignore the thread if you wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 I agree. It seems like the models are starting to back away from the cold. What a surprise. I'm telling you, if people want winter these days, they should go to Europe. It seems their winters have been trending colder over the past few years whiile our's have been trending warmer. The 12z GFS solution for this storm is horrific for travellers such as myself. It would seem to imply freezing rain in the Ottawa Valley on a day (Sunday 9th) that I was planning on making a day trip up there from Toronto. I want a storm, but would much rather it arrive on the monday morning. I guess you can't cherry pick what you want though. I wouldn't mind a Bavarian Christmas either.... Get outta this continent altogether. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 i'm fine with this thread's existence...whether or not it's anything better than a shower/flurry or two is tbd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 I agree. It seems like the models are starting to back away from the cold. What a surprise. I'm telling you, if people want winter these days, they should go to Europe. It seems their winters have been trending colder over the past few years whiile our's have been trending warmer. The 12z GFS solution for this storm is horrific for travellers such as myself. It would seem to imply freezing rain in the Ottawa Valley on a day (Sunday 9th) that I was planning on making a day trip up there from Toronto. I want a storm, but would much rather it arrive on the monday morning. I guess you can't cherry pick what you want though. Still dont understand all the panic. We had ONE warm winter, last year. The op GFS backed off of its extreme cold scenario of a few days ago, but that scenario verbatum would have any storm be ridiculously suppressed. Any snow here would have to be soley from clippers or LES. Now, IF there was snowcover laid down ahead of that cold, someone like me wouldnt mind terribly, but a lot of the storm hounds would freak. Now if this gradient pattern pans out....someone may be sitting very pretty...and it very easily could be you (or me, or Chicago, etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 2, 2012 Author Share Posted December 2, 2012 Still dont understand all the panic. We had ONE warm winter, last year. The op GFS backed off of its extreme cold scenario of a few days ago, but that scenario verbatum would have any storm be ridiculously suppressed. Any snow here would have to be soley from clippers or LES. Now, IF there was snowcover laid down ahead of that cold, someone like me wouldnt mind terribly, but a lot of the storm hounds would freak. Now if this gradient pattern pans out....someone may be sitting very pretty...and it very easily could be you (or me, or Chicago, etc). It's ridiculous. People on this board just need to chill out. It's obvious that people are ticked on here if they're giving me hassle about making a thread on a system that's been on the models for days now. There's action on the models, and people still aren't happy. I'm pretty sure looking at the GFS around this time last year, it was nothing but a torch with the polar jet well into Canada. What we're experiencing now is pretty normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 It's ridiculous. People on this board just need to chill out. It's obvious that people are ticked on here if they're giving me hassle about making a thread on a system that's been on the models for days now. There's action on the models, and people still aren't happy. I'm pretty sure looking at the GFS around this time last year, it was nothing but a torch with the polar jet well into Canada. What we're experiencing now is pretty normal. Agree. You never, ever, EVER worry about the position of a precip shield verbatum on a long range model run. As long as the long-range shows action, whether its a storm that cuts to MSP or a storm that cuts east of the apps, its showing something which means theres a better chance that something will occur somewhere in that GENERAL timeframe. I would think that for many on here, a deep trough entrenching us in dry arctic air with no storms around (just a few sparse spots of the 0.01-0.1 qpf) would be worse to see. Lets get through this week and see what happens. Basically, as any selfish weenie would, I want the cold to hang around the Great Lakes but not dip too far south so I miss snow. Yes Im greedy, we all are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 2, 2012 Author Share Posted December 2, 2012 Agree. You never, ever, EVER worry about the position of a precip shield verbatum on a long range model run. As long as the long-range shows action, whether its a storm that cuts to MSP or a storm that cuts east of the apps, its showing something which means theres a better chance that something will occur somewhere in that GENERAL timeframe. I would think that for many on here, a deep trough entrenching us in dry arctic air with no storms around (just a few sparse spots of the 0.01-0.1 qpf) would be worse to see. Lets get through this week and see what happens. Basically, as any selfish weenie would, I want the cold to hang around the Great Lakes but not dip too far south so I miss snow. Yes Im greedy, we all are I hear ya on that. If it dips too south then none of us get snow. It just goes OTA. This year is playing out like '09-'10 so far. I remember tracking a system around this time frame during that season. Here is an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 3, 2012 Author Share Posted December 3, 2012 Oh, and I haven't mentioned this yet, but my b'day is on the 9th, so let's hope for some birthday magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 The 18z GFS did what I thought it would in bringing a surface low over the Quad Cities moving to over Lake MI. Many of the 12z ensemble members were suggesting that. Some of them had good snows for MSP while others had a flat out blizzard. Just wished I could believe it, even though the GEM and GFS have been hinting at that as of late, it really doesn't have much support from the Euro. Could a comprise solution be in the works? Less snow here and more for the area just to our se? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 3, 2012 Author Share Posted December 3, 2012 The 18z GFS did what I thought it would in bringing a surface low over the Quad Cities moving to over Lake MI. Many of the 12z ensemble members were suggesting that. Some of them had good snows for MSP while others had a flat out blizzard. Just wished I could believe it, even though the GEM and GFS have been hinting at that as of late, it really doesn't have much support from the Euro. Could a comprise solution be in the works? Less snow here and more for the area just to our se? Yes, the way this has been playing out on the models brings a case of dejavu to me. Now, I'm definitely not saying it will be a storm to the magnitude of the Dec 8-9, '09 blizzard, but it's following the same track. At this point, I don't care if I get snow. I just want to track a storm in our area. That's how friggin bored I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Yes, the way this has been playing out on the models brings a case of dejavu to me. Now, I'm definitely not saying it will be a storm to the magnitude of the Dec 8-9, '09 blizzard, but it's following the same track. At this point, I don't care if I get snow. I just want to track a storm in our area. That's how friggin bored I am. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Yes, the way this has been playing out on the models brings a case of dejavu to me. Now, I'm definitely not saying it will be a storm to the magnitude of the Dec 8-9, '09 blizzard, but it's following the same track. At this point, I don't care if I get snow. I just want to track a storm in our area. That's how friggin bored I am. This x 1000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I am (as usual) having a vexing time making sense of some of this. I am just hoping for some cold. This 64 degrees crap is for April. It would be nice to see winter move in, sometime before Christmas, but I get the feeling we are going to be waiting until January before we see any real winter action. But, then, take that for what it is worth. Skilling is expecting things to get colder by mid-month. I tend to agree, but it would be nice is if it was a cold that hung around for more than 2 or 3 days at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 GFS is like WHAT COLD AIR? Pretty good storm, but no cold air to work with.. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I totally want to lock this GFS run in, wowser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I'm looking forward to things getting going after about the 10th or so of the month. This first potential system may just be something that gets the pump primed. Btw, I really am not liking this windows 8 bs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I'm looking forward to things getting going after about the 10th or so of the month. This first potential system may just be something that gets the pump primed. Btw, I really am not liking this windows 8 bs.... Why not? I think Windows 8 is great. I mostly ignore the Metro crap though. You can find Windows start menu replacements here: http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-33642_7-57496506-292/how-to-get-the-start-menu-back-in-windows-8/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I'm looking forward to things getting going after about the 10th or so of the month. This first potential system may just be something that gets the pump primed. Btw, I really am not liking this windows 8 bs.... OT: +1 horrible. very confusing to use Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 3, 2012 Author Share Posted December 3, 2012 Be careful. The forum mall cops will get us for going off topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Why not? I think Windows 8 is great. I mostly ignore the Metro crap though. You can find Windows start menu replacements here: http://reviews.cnet....k-in-windows-8/ I'm hitting enter to start a new paragraph and the enter button is not responding, new laptop so that's not the issues.... maybe I have a keyboard setting off? I don't know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 The models will be having problems too with any system and re-alignment of the pattern so this flip flopping on storm/cold etc. is not really that surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 3, 2012 Author Share Posted December 3, 2012 I'm hitting enter to start a new paragraph and the enter button is not responding, new laptop so that's not the issues.... maybe I have a keyboard setting off? I don't know... I have Windows 8, and my enter button works just fine. Might be a defect in your laptop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 3, 2012 Author Share Posted December 3, 2012 I totally want to lock this GFS run in, wowser Hah, this storm will have many faces before we get down to the short term. I'm just glad there's still a storm. At least we have that for consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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