TugHillMatt Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Here is our forecast from midwestweather.org Thoughts? I think we will have measurable snow here along Lake Michigan. The wind will be coming from the east, so there shouldn't be as big of an influence from the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I think we will have measurable snow here along Lake Michigan. The wind will be coming from the east, so there shouldn't be as big of an influence from the lake. Do you live right on the shore? I live 5 miles in and sometimes wish it was more, but this Summer will be nice. I have a Cousin that lives on the shore down there in Montague. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Do you live right on the shore? I live 5 miles in and sometimes wish it was more, but this Summer will be nice. I have a Cousin that lives on the shore down there in Montague. I live about three to four miles in, near Fruitport. living close to the lakeshore STINKS in late fall/early winter, but once the temp drops more, you want to be near the lake...Atleast around here. The bands that hug the coast can DUMP snow. The further inland one goes, the more "snow showery" it is. The snow also sticks around much longer in the spring if you like a slower melting snowpack, since you're next to a giant ice cube. Unfortunately, since I moved here four years ago, there hasn't been a lot of great lake snows because of the stinko pattern. However, every winter I have been able to experience atleast one snow band that just dumps and we get about 8 to 12 inches in half a day. This is also a great area for Lake enhanced snows. Where you moved to is probably even better for lake effect. Some day I would LOVE to move to Hancock, MI if I can talk the wife into it. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Grasping at straws, but maybe if the precipitation arrives earlier and the WAA takes just a little longer to arrive, we could pick up a little snow tomorrw as well. Anything counts. 00z NAM leaves me A BIT hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Here is our forecast from midwestweather.org Thoughts? That thing is gonna bust in NE MN. Your too high with the totals there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 NAM a little south/weaker, we may stay all snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I live about three to four miles in, near Fruitport. living close to the lakeshore STINKS in late fall/early winter, but once the temp drops more, you want to be near the lake...Atleast around here. The bands that hug the coast can DUMP snow. The further inland one goes, the more "snow showery" it is. The snow also sticks around much longer in the spring if you like a slower melting snowpack, since you're next to a giant ice cube. Unfortunately, since I moved here four years ago, there hasn't been a lot of great lake snows because of the stinko pattern. However, every winter I have been able to experience atleast one snow band that just dumps and we get about 8 to 12 inches in half a day. This is also a great area for Lake enhanced snows. Where you moved to is probably even better for lake effect. Some day I would LOVE to move to Hancock, MI if I can talk the wife into it. Haha I've also been told that once the water cools, near the coast is a great spot to be. Also have seen a few bands already this winter that don't penetrate far inland and hug the coast and dump. One thing here that's different is the elevation as you move east. Almost always LE bands intensify as they head inland up here. There's a 600-800 ft rise in elevation that provides that extra lift. So Gaylord actually averages about 40" more snow than I do due to that. Anyway, hope you see some snow Sun-Mon..... 3-6" here forecasted with maybe 1-2" monday/night. AFD mentions advisories going up with AM package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 NAM a little south/weaker, we may stay all snow here. Nice! How is it looking here? How much snow do you have left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Nice! How is it looking here? How much snow do you have left? Well, better as well, as the warm front doesn't push as far north on this run. Grass still completely covered. Looks beautiful at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I've also been told that once the water cools, near the coast is a great spot to be. Also have seen a few bands already this winter that don't penetrate far inland and hug the coast and dump. One thing here that's different is the elevation as you move east. Almost always LE bands intensify as they head inland up here. There's a 600-800 ft rise in elevation that provides that extra lift. So Gaylord actually averages about 40" more snow than I do due to that. Anyway, hope you see some snow Sun-Mon..... 3-6" here forecasted with maybe 1-2" monday/night. AFD mentions advisories going up with AM package. Yeah, I looked for work in Gaylord and just couldn't find anything other than seasonal stuff. I also looked in Traverse City, but am glad I didn't find anything. It is a beautiful area, but I find Traverse to be very congested and too touristy. Sorry Detroit posters, but I found there to be way too many rich "city folk' in Traverse. It is the same reason I avoid Grand Haven around here, even in the winter! Well, better as well, as the warm front doesn't push as far north on this run. Grass still completely covered. Looks beautiful at night. Nice...it will probably freeze over and make a nice cold base for tomorrow's snow. I only have a few patches around here in the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Looks like i get in on the northern edge of the second wave followed by a little LE snow showers on the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Well, better as well, as the warm front doesn't push as far north on this run. Grass still completely covered. Looks beautiful at night. On the NAM, it looks like it might JUST stay all snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 1 inch is pushing for LaCrosse...maybe on the bluff. Not impressed at all with this, too much hype from NWS here... turd storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 You and the greenhouse in La Desert just might get surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 On the NAM, it looks like it might JUST stay all snow here. 4km nested run of the NAM would support that conclusion. Looks like Milwaukee just a little way back from the lake is also all snow. 540 line makes it to Kenosha, but no further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Normally our bread and butter low track from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 La Crosse looks like it's in a pretty good spot to me. DLL I think you will get a lot more than 1 inch lol. Even Hawkeye could get some accumulations. 00z looks a little better for the northern DVN CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 9, 2012 Author Share Posted December 9, 2012 Looks like everything is going according to plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Looking more likely that I'll be able to put any talk of being shutout in December to rest tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Yes, it looks like Torontonians will be in for a surprise late tomorrow afternoon. I hope the Canadian model's rendition of this plays out as I have a drive between Ottawa and Toronto tomorrow evening and, while I have snow tires and will take it slowly (good thing is that the highways should be very quiet on a Sunday evening), I would much rather face snow or ice pellets than the dreaded freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Yes, it looks like Torontonians will be in for a surprise late tomorrow afternoon. I hope the Canadian model's rendition of this plays out as I have a drive between Ottawa and Toronto tomorrow evening and, while I have snow tires and will take it slowly (good thing is that the highways should be very quiet on a Sunday evening), I would much rather face snow or ice pellets than the dreaded freezing rain. Assuming we don't have bl warmth issues, or we don't have elevated warmth issues earlier than progged, 1-2" doesn't seem unreasonable. And there's going to be a change over to ZR at some point. Probably very brief along the LOntario shore, more protracted just to the north. If I were you I'd probably just leave mid afternoon and avoid the hassle all together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 9, 2012 Author Share Posted December 9, 2012 It's possible that it may snow a lil bit here in the Detroit area around 3-4 AM before a changeover to rain. I used sort of a time estimator based on the speed of the snow band. Looking at the SKEW-T at 09z, temperatures will be slightly above freezing near the surface, but the light blue line is the wet bulb temperature which is progged to be at freezing levels. I'm not sure if it's going to snow, and how long it will, but the next few hours after that skew-t, the wet bulb temp stays at freezing. Assuming this verifies, and the snow band doesn't fizzle out, if you want to see a bit of snow here, stay up. Amazing how I would go through this just for light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Holly smokes we are going to get blitzed here at MSP, global models and short term models are now in solid agreement with 10-12" . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Hate to burst your bubble bud, but that's all virga in northern IL and IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 9, 2012 Author Share Posted December 9, 2012 Hate to burst your bubble bud, but that's all virga in northern IL and IN. Probably is, but it doesn't mean that it won't snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 It's possible that it may snow a lil bit here in the Detroit area around 3-4 AM before a changeover to rain. I used sort of a time estimator based on the speed of the snow band. Looking at the SKEW-T at 09z, temperatures will be slightly above freezing near the surface, but the light blue line is the wet bulb temperature which is progged to be at freezing levels. I'm not sure if it's going to snow, and how long it will, but the next few hours after that skew-t, the wet bulb temp stays at freezing. Assuming this verifies, and the snow band doesn't fizzle out, if you want to see a bit of snow here, stay up. Amazing how I would go through this just for light snow. That strong dry layer has to be overcome before any precip will fall IMO awful dry between 800 and 900 mb's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Probably is, but it doesn't mean that it won't snow. Well, that skew-T for DTW shows an awful dry layer too. But, good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 9, 2012 Author Share Posted December 9, 2012 That strong dry layer has to be overcome before any precip will fall IMO awful dry between 800 and 900 mb's Yeah. Worried about that. Hence why he's mentioning virga. I'm hoping for a crapshoot. Sad it's come to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Yeah. Worried about that. Hence why he's mentioning virga. I'm hoping for a crapshoot. Sad it's come to this. Actually if you look at the composite radar loop for DTX that band is already extending to Lake Erie but it is not falling at the surface due to the dry air aloft. That dry layer is quite stout and the band isnt large/strong enough to overcome it I believe. I would be surprised if any ends up reaching the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 9, 2012 Author Share Posted December 9, 2012 Actually if you look at the composite radar loop for DTX that band is already extending to Lake Erie but it is not falling at the surface due to the dry air aloft. That dry layer is quite stout and the band isnt large/strong enough to overcome it I believe. I would be surprised if any ends up reaching the surface. Keep an eye out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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