Harry Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I see the EURO is now doing what the GFS did with the front runner which may act as a blocker.. Euro also starting to go back to the stronger southern/weaker northern idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 It blows me away that there was much of a system at all that far north considering what the GFS does with the front runner and thus blows it up. One or the other i suspect is gonna have to give. Which will it be? Not talking about the southern energy which is far enough away from that system well to the ne about to exit Canada.. You may want to look at the H85 and H7 maps and focus you attention to the west. The very strong ridge between Hawaii and the west coast at that level spills over into the western CONUS and cuts off the moisture that the H5 trough tries to bring down with it. The air under the southern vort max is very very dry, there is no longer any on shore flow over the southern CA area. I know moisture has a problem getting over the mountains but in this case the flow is dry to begin with. I fell there is no need to post the maps as I'm sure you know where to find them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 First of all, I'm sure many of you remember that I said ARX, MKE and ORD would get more snow out of this event. Well I'm here to order dinner. I like my crow cooked just a bit better than medium but not quite well done. So far as the Vulcher s**t mashed potatoes please put plenty of milk in them. Second of all, I could get hammered here in the north metro suburbs of the TC metro. There will be so much crow eaten the next 4 months here that the bird will become extinct. Simply put everyone assumes their area will fail when that will not always be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Even raw crow tastes great when you become the benefactor of a nice storm. Ok I'll take it raw as long as I have a 12 pack of Miller Genuine Draft to wash it down with!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I wish we could see the 850 low position on the Euro. It looks too warm for Chicago and parts of extreme southern Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I wish we could see the 850 low position on the Euro. It looks too warm for Chicago and parts of extreme southern Wisconsin. I'm sure it's too warm for those areas, and it is probably borderline for much of the rest of S Wisconsin. We will be riding on the borderline, but it looks more and more possible we will see a good portion of this event during the darker hours (after 4:00), which could help inland areas anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I wish we could see the 850 low position on the Euro. It looks too warm for Chicago and parts of extreme southern Wisconsin. It is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 It is. The Wunderground maps (with a new scale no less) barely even shows much snow up north. Maybe the new snow scale doesn't work properly, it just showed specks of 1-2" for any 6 hour period, didn't seem right for Minnesota and NW Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 The Wunderground maps (with a new scale no less) barely even shows much snow up north. Maybe the new snow scale doesn't work properly, it just showed specks of 1-2" for any 6 hour period, didn't seem right for Minnesota and NW Wisconsin. QPF Maps show most get around .25-.35 or so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 QPF Maps show most get around .25-.35 or so. just looking at the thickness lines for MN and northern WI I could see ratios around 11-14 to one. Just a guess at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 The Wunderground maps (with a new scale no less) barely even shows much snow up north. Maybe the new snow scale doesn't work properly, it just showed specks of 1-2" for any 6 hour period, didn't seem right for Minnesota and NW Wisconsin. That map is not right, no where close to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 just looking at the thickness lines for MN and northern WI I could see ratios around 11-14 to one. Just a guess at this time Never good to guess ratios this far out. So many factors besides layer average temperature that just can't be modeled this far out have a bearing on ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Might be grasping at straws here but nearly half of the 06z SREF members go for the stronger southern wave solution with a couple even wrapping it up quite a bit (for example ARW2). As one can see, the spread is rather significant in the 558 line's placement...although there appear to be two camps, one that significantly deepens the wave diving southward and thus is slower, and further west (being less affected by the northern anomaly), and the faster, less impressive verbatim (being affected more by the northern anomaly). The slower ones also have a greater chance of being caught by the anomaly diving in behind this wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 yeah second wave isn't happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 First of all, I'm sure many of you remember that I said ARX, MKE and ORD would get more snow out of this event. Well I'm here to order dinner. I like my crow cooked just a bit better than medium but not quite well done. So far as the Vulcher s**t mashed potatoes please put plenty of milk in them. Second of all, I could get hammered here in the north metro suburbs of the TC metro. One more signature storm that highlights the subforum's beloved motto: "Congrats MSP" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Time for the next white whale. Off to a excellent 2-0 start in that department. Trying to find the meme for "WE CAN'T HOLD HER MUCH LONGER CAPTAIN"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 At least there's one weenie run left on the 6z GEFS. But yeah, moving on. WS Watches up for parts of MN and WI for the possibility of 6"+. Hope they get hit good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 At least there's one weenie run left on the 6z GEFS. But yeah, moving on. WS Watches up for parts of MN and WI for the possibility of 6"+. Hope they get hit good. You're selling it short...i counted two that made something of it...and maybe one of the SREFs lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 You're selling it short...i counted two that made something of it...and maybe one of the SREFs lock it in You're right of course. But p001 was the sexiest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 You're right of course. But p001 was the sexiest. 3z ARW2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 3z ARW2 6z p001 and 3z ARW2...quite the powerful combo. Hope springs eternal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 NAM seems to be trending better and better for Long Legs and myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 NAM seems to be trending better and better for Long Legs and myself. you guys look good for a modest little snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 you guys look good for a modest little snow storm. Temps are iffy so accumulation probably wont be great, but should see some white stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Yeah...maybe an inch of slop here... more on the bluffs? I'll be hiking if we do get some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Just for fun.... tonight thru mon morn: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 6z & 12z NAM sure brought the rain/snow line far south. Southern WI. DLL would cash in for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I don't really notice a difference grow, but first measurable seems likely tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Might as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Never mind, it looks like it could be an incredibly difficult forecast for se Wisconsin, a degree or two cooler at the surface could make a difference, still probably an inch or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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