A-L-E-K Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 The NAM did drop the southern wave farther west this run when compared to the 12z run at the same time. It's going to take a lot more seperation between those two waves than that. EDIT: talking about putting MBY and west in play for a possible second spinup---those further east have a marginally better shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 you've got some time to baby step your way into a backdoor event...longshot obv 96+ hours out isn't unreasonable, true. But yeah, longshot. It'll keep me watching for another day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 wouldn't that be funny. Full circle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Here's one of my issues with the second low idea, and it comes from looking at the Euro. There's a northern kicker quickly following on its heels (between hours 96 and 120). Flow is pretty progressive as well, so really the timing would have to be impeccable. Course I'm talking as far west as here with this idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Here's one of my issues with the second low idea, and it comes from looking at the Euro. There's a northern kicker quickly following on its heels (between hours 96 and 120). Flow is pretty progressive as well, so really the timing would have to be impeccable. Course I'm talking as far west as here with this idea. yep...it's going to have to dig and the dominant northern piece that screwed everything up to begin with needs to get out of town quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I guess this has been pretty much the same for most ensembles today. Are the ensembles less reliable in the short range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 My backyard is literally right in the middle of that white gap between rain and snow in the middle of southern Ontario. Worst luck haha. There could still be precip one way or the other it's just funny to see it modeled like that. I guess this has been pretty much the same for most ensembles today. Are the ensembles less reliable in the short range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 What was it that happened Dec 12, 2010? I remember originally eyeing a storm which ended up tracking way west but then was surprised as a new L developed (sorta last minute) and gave us over 6" of snow, not only the first storm of the snowy winter season, but also the first of quite a few overperformer that wonderful winter. Anything similar with this setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Call me crazy, but if this thing slows down just a tad, there is a shot at some accumulating snow from maybe a Janesville/Madison to Milwaukee to Muskegon line and northwest. Some of the GFS ensembles are doing just that. The other models don't seem to be on board, so they are probably wrong, but changes in the short term like this have happened before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 What was it that happened Dec 12, 2010? I remember originally eyeing a storm which ended up tracking way west but then was surprised as a new L developed (sorta last minute) and gave us over 6" of snow, not only the first storm of the snowy winter season, but also the first of quite a few overperformer that wonderful winter. Anything similar with this setup? Basically kinda yes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I will go out on a limb and say Milwaukee gets their first measurable snow of the season by Monday morning. Everything looks marginal with precip events the next couple days, but a slight shift in timing, and we might get accums. I certainly think mby will see a light accumulation of snow, though not more than an inch for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Several of the 12z GFS ensembles still have a potent system cutting into the lakes, much stronger than the op run so I'm not giving up just yet since this thing is still out over the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Here's a little tid bit from the 307PM LOT AFD: TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...BUT WHEN IS UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SNOW TOTALS IN THIS FORECAST. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH THE NEW ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN DOES SUGGEST A POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. NO WRAP AROUND SNOW IS EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE PRECIP OF SOME SORT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHEN THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...HOW LONG THE PRECIP WILL LAST...AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 At least the NAM took a step in the right direction...definitely no phase, but the lead vort max kept closer proximity to the following piece longer, before separating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 If anything the 0z NAM was the smallest step in the right direction...northern vort is weaker/further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 What was it that happened Dec 12, 2010? I remember originally eyeing a storm which ended up tracking way west but then was surprised as a new L developed (sorta last minute) and gave us over 6" of snow, not only the first storm of the snowy winter season, but also the first of quite a few overperformer that wonderful winter. Anything similar with this setup? That's more or less what happened. 988mb low over Lake Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 00z GFS breaks apart the two vort maxes again, and shears out the second one before the following wave can phase with it. It's going to need to slow down a bit if it is to be caught by the third wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 This thread is deader than this winter technically winter is still 2+weeks away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Everybody is waiting for the next model fix - I can sense it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Anyone who has access to the individual Euro ensemble members - how many of them looked anything like the 12z op run with that delayed wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Ukie with a strong southwestern solution at 72, although it sort of gets rid of that in a hurry by 96 with a rather strange evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 ukmet gets south eastern nebraska good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Anyone who has access to the individual Euro ensemble members - how many of them looked anything like the 12z op run with that delayed wave? Put it this way.. Last nights 00z run had like 4-5 that did that while todays 12z had like 20 or so? I believe there is 51 ensemble members with the euro if i recall correctly.. Now to see if tonights run does continues off the 12z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 GGEM weakens the northern wave as it makes it's way towards WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 21z SREF has several members that are stronger/slower with this southern wave: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21500US_21z/srefloop.html Prelim. HPC discussion: THE 21Z SREF MEAN... DESPITE ITS INFLUENCE FROM NMMB MEMBERS... IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE NAM AND 18Z GEFS MEAN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY LATE SUNDAY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z/06 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. GIVEN THE BROAD SLOWER TREND FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH... WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 21Z SREF MEAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 It blows me away that there was much of a system at all that far north considering what the GFS does with the front runner and thus blows it up. One or the other i suspect is gonna have to give. Which will it be? Not talking about the southern energy which is far enough away from that system well to the ne about to exit Canada.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Euro out to 60, closed low at 500mb from hr 54-60 (north central ok) , precip breaking out in nebraska at hr 60 then goes away, light precip for kansas @hr 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 First of all, I'm sure many of you remember that I said ARX, MKE and ORD would get more snow out of this event. Well I'm here to order dinner. I like my crow cooked just a bit better than medium but not quite well done. So far as the Vulcher s**t mashed potatoes please put plenty of milk in them. Second of all, I could get hammered here in the north metro suburbs of the TC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 .10-.25 for parts of southeast kansas and eastern nebraska .25-.50" for chicago (wet) on north (snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 First of all, I'm sure many of you remember that I said ARX, MKE and ORD would get more snow out of this event. Well I'm here to order dinner. I like my crow cooked just a bit better than medium but not quite well done. So far as the Vulcher s**t mashed potatoes please put plenty of milk in them. Second of all, I could get hammered here in the north metro suburbs of the TC metro. Even raw crow tastes great when you become the benefactor of a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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