dmc76 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 At least it is not going to sit in the GOA...there is a positive! Lots of cold air behind the system is a huge positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Lots of cold air behind the system is a huge positive. Terrific, cold bare ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I guess once this thing gets sampled and the northern wave turns out weaker - then we might have something again. get so sick of hearing that on here and in afd's. you know there is a 90% chance your done for once the sampled excuses start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Terrific, cold bare ground. Gotta start some where, one win at a time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Gotta start some where, one win at a time... I actually am happy that this system looks to lay down some snow up north, at least someone in the region gets it, but I'm starting to worry this December matches last December's futility if we go back into a boring pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 get so sick of hearing that on here and in afd's. you know there is a 90% chance your done for once the sampled excuses start. So am I, but there's a chance that it's not being handled right by the models. Albeit slight. All the moisture has been kept up north - would like to see this drought disappear this month! Onto the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Gotta start some where, one win at a time... yeah its seems you have to take one up the fanny for those well NW of us to get things going in winter. My lube and patience is about run out from last december. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 what a waste of time and potential congrats UP I hope its wrong in regard to this storm, but over the next 384 hours the U.P would be absolutely BURIED with lake effect and synoptic storms. Almost makes me want to take a 2 week vacation to Houghton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I actually am happy that this system looks to lay down some snow up north, at least someone in the region gets it, but I'm starting to worry this December matches last December's futility if we go back into a boring pattern. The next 2 weeks is colder and more active than any single day last winter. How is it boring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Would be a shame to "waste" this storm because of wave interference so to speak but the trends are undeniable. We've seen dramatic last minute adjustments before but you don't want to have to rely on those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 GGEM trends toward a stronger lead shortwave further north, ala Euro and latest GFS. UKMET still showing a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 get so sick of hearing that on here and in afd's. you know there is a 90% chance your done for once the sampled excuses start. Not speaking about this storm as being different in this case, but the lack of data sampling over the Pacific is a known issue and small deviations in a model can make huge differences down the road, which is why it is mentioned here and with the NWS. So I would be cautious about your unilateral skepticism of it being mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 GGEM looks like it has the northern wave, then 2 waves on the southern side. One passing by Chicago at 90hr and then the piece in TX that shoots out 12 hours later. UKMET is still all southern solution. Edit: In the end, it would be nice to see the southern solution -to be able to chip away at this drought. Any form of water would be welcome to the Plains states particularly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Euro is a big fat mess again, again amplifies that lead wave and leaves behind the secondary vort max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Euro is lost..need to see what happens in between hour 90 and 120... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 wundergound snowfall maps are working again.. not that is matters this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Not speaking about this storm as being different in this case, but the lack of data sampling over the Pacific is a known issue and small deviations in a model can make huge differences down the road, which is why it is mentioned here and with the NWS. So I would be cautious about your unilateral skepticism of it being mentioned I understand the so called lack of data over the pacific and I should have left the afd's useage out of it in the middle range but, I was having a baby tantrum after the 00z gfs. Its when weenies start throwing the sampling card out when the trend is crystal clear that we're screwed that grates at me. Funny how the Euro way back with 'all that lack of data sampling' had the storm ending this way first until it caved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 4th and long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Maybe the 12Z will have better sampling and bring it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XcNick Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Maybe the 12Z will have better sampling and bring it back. Watch the 12z, bet they will go South and have us on the Nothern edge of the storm . Either way I welcome Rain or Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Need that northern low to dig a bit further south and it would at least be interesting around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 The sampling line holds water…but we have pretty good consensus right now for a major fly in the ointment…this isn’t something that will be corrected by minor sampling related shifts. Definitely looking like a waste of some pretty good potential during a pattern shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 It almost looks like the southern wave wants to take over on the 6z GFS at 63 hours. I see lower pressure to the south and not north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 It almost looks like the southern wave wants to take over on the 6z GFS at 63 hours. I see lower pressure to the south and not north. not even close to mattering...just watch the 850 low...it passes into the UP, we aren't even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Short and sweet no weenie AFD from MKE. Maybe new model Data will burn them FOR SAT NT AND SUN...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO MN WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION OF THE SW USA. AT THE SFC...A LARGE S-N INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS WITHIN THE TROUGH. ONE THAT WILL TRACK FROM MN INTO NRN WI AND ANOTHER FROM IL TO LAKE ERIE. THE SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY MILD TEMPS SO WILL MAINTAIN A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN ALL RAIN FOR SUN OVER FAR SE AND FAR SRN WI. THUS ONLY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND MAINLY OVER THE NW CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Short and sweet no weenie AFD from MKE. Maybe new model Data will burn them FOR SAT NT AND SUN...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO MN WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION OF THE SW USA. AT THE SFC...A LARGE S-N INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS WITHIN THE TROUGH. ONE THAT WILL TRACK FROM MN INTO NRN WI AND ANOTHER FROM IL TO LAKE ERIE. THE SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY MILD TEMPS SO WILL MAINTAIN A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN ALL RAIN FOR SUN OVER FAR SE AND FAR SRN WI. THUS ONLY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND MAINLY OVER THE NW CWA. Definitely looks bad for most of you guys. Turtle to Daddylonglegs is still in play. 12z NAM should be a good hit for those on the northwest fringe of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Yeah they got a chance for a little early holiday mood snow...madison looks iffy and QPF starved on the euro. Basically turned in to the least desirable outcome though. hopefully the northwoods can at least clean up this mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Yeah they got a chance for a little early holiday mood snow...madison looks iffy and QPF starved on the euro. Basically turned in to the least desirable outcome though. pretty much...maybe the trends continue and that middle wave closes off super early and just plows through as a decent artic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 12 GFS weaker overall. Interesting trend with the NAM. Southern wave looks to try to steal energy from the north as the whole thing heads east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 12 GFS weaker overall. Interesting trend with the NAM. Southern wave looks to try to steal energy from the north as the north heads east. not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.