Thundersnow12 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 IWX A STRONG 150 KT UPPER JET STREAK DROPPING INTO WESTERN CANADA/NW CONUS WILL AID IN DIGGING A LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY. A PV ANOMALY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY SPIN UP A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PER FAVORED GFS/UKMET/GEM TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA AND SE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND MODEL THERMAL PROFILES MAINLY FAVOR A RAIN EVENT... POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS A BRIEF WINTRY MIX IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AND ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING AS DEFORMATION AXIS WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN CAA REGIME SWINGS THROUGH. OBVIOUSLY WITH THE JET ENERGY/SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM ARE ALMOST EXPECTED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Yeah, in this case you want to be well NW of the track, like MSN/MKE and Traverse City, in order to achieve mostly snow. If the storm trends stronger, cold air might be more readily produced closer to the low, but as it stands now, even Milwaukee and Muskegon may be marginal with a track through Indy, which is normally very good for us. Eh a track through Indy, MKE is usually all snow. And in this case would be too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Yeah, in this case you want to be well NW of the track, like MSN/MKE and Traverse City, in order to achieve mostly snow. If the storm trends stronger, cold air might be more readily produced closer to the low, but as it stands now, even Milwaukee and Muskegon may be marginal with a track through Indy, which is normally very good for us. Particularly in the beginning up until the low passes directly south of your location if you're near the lake. That's when the most pronounced lake mixing occurs. For those of you that had lake effect snow already... was there mixing issue near the water? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Yeah, in this case you want to be well NW of the track, like MSN/MKE and Traverse City, in order to achieve mostly snow. If the storm trends stronger, cold air might be more readily produced closer to the low, but as it stands now, even Milwaukee and Muskegon may be marginal with a track through Indy, which is normally very good for us. Shhh...don't say such curse words. I would not be surprised. Muskegon almost always seems to be on the edge of rain/snow, being missed, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Eh a track through Indy, MKE is usually all snow. And in this case would be too. MKX is still going with a mix of rain and snow for the local area, and the low only gets down to 32F on Sunday night. I'll take their word for it that it could be marginal, and I'm assuming they're going with a blend of the Euro and the other more amped models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Eh a track through Indy, MKE is usually all snow. And in this case would be too. meh, the surface is a good ways south of the more important 850/700 lows until the storm gets pretty far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 meh, the surface is a good ways south of the more important 850/700 lows until the storm gets pretty far east. yeah but besides the track look at the temps of those layers, soundings, thicknesses etc. Just saying MKE is all snow the past few GFS runs, nothing else. Euro is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 MKX is still going with a mix of rain and snow for the local area, and the low only gets down to 32F on Sunday night. I'll take their word for it that it could be marginal, and I'm assuming they're going with a blend of the Euro and the other more amped models. You got 32° and I got 30° for Sunday night! LOT more bullish on the cold. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 yeah but besides the track look at the temps of those layers, soundings, thicknesses etc. Just saying MKE is all snow the past few GFS runs, nothing else. Euro is a different story. Well fwiw, the Euro Ensembles had the low in the thumb of Michigan, much different (NW) of the OP, so that's a good sign for a stronger system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 You got 32° and I got 30° for Sunday night! LOT more bullish on the cold. lol Actually, my bad I think it was 31, but I found that funny too. Farther from the lake than Waukegan and further north doesn't add up to a warmer temp, but clearly MKX is either riding the NW solutions or thinking WAA/NE winds will play a bigger part in the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Well fwiw, the Euro Ensembles had the low in the thumb of Michigan, much different (NW) of the OP, so that's a good sign for a stronger system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I don't enjoy 50 and rain. Something must be wrong with me. It could be worse. Try 33*F and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 As thought, 0z NAM still showing the strong lead wave moving across MT into ND with our wave back across OR/ID through 60hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 As thought, 0z NAM still showing the strong lead wave moving across MT into ND with our wave back across OR/ID through 60hr. 132 at 850 over MT...going to be a warm run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Actually, my bad I think it was 31, but I found that funny too. Farther from the lake than Waukegan and further north doesn't add up to a warmer temp, but clearly MKX is either riding the NW solutions or thinking WAA/NE winds will play a bigger part in the storm. They have a mix all the way back to jefferson. To early in the game to get too cute wording it all rain or all snow for SE Wisconsin. good luck getting much to accumulate with a se and east wind.. we need winds out of the NE ASAP and enough precip left to rack some inches up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 132 at 850 over MT...going to be a warm run Yeah it's not pretty. Northern plains wave turning NE by 75hr. C ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 One weird solution. Geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 This is the NAM at 84 hours! Anything can happen on the NAM is that time frame! lol That is a weird looking solution though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Not that the 84 hour NAM should be taken seriously to begin with, but that defo zone looks like it could affect S Wisconsin/C Lower Michigan in future hours, and temps could be favorable for a wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Looks like that little northern vort max mentioned last page might be trying to fully phase this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Looks like that little northern vort max mentioned last page might be trying to fully phase this time... Northern one was dominant I guess though...pulled everything up way north compared to the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 There goes the GFS to the NAM and stepping towards the Euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 what a waste of time and potential congrats UP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Only hope this run is that the little bit of bagginess in the base of the H5 trough around 96 can form a wave down along the W Gulf Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 There goes the GFS to the NAM and stepping towards the Euro.. p much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 to bad the euro lost leading the way to this outcome early and caved to other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I mean I guess this thing is still in the GOA not really getting sampled well so things could just but I just got a lot less optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I think the only time the wussy GFS leads the way and is correct is when it shows a storm waaaaay out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I guess once this thing gets sampled and the northern wave turns out weaker - then we might have something again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I mean I guess this thing is still in the GOA not really getting sampled well so things could just but I just got a lot less optimistic. At least it is not going to sit in the GOA...there is a positive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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