snowstormcanuck Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 So then this isn't for the big cutter shown on the 18z GFS? Or for the storm before that? The thread starter needs to figure that out. I don't want to put words in his mouth, but I think it's for the storm the 18z GFS has over IND at 165 hours. Not the one that blows up around 216 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 2, 2012 Author Share Posted December 2, 2012 I don't want to put words in his mouth, but I think it's for the storm the 18z GFS has over IND at 165 hours. Not the one that blows up around 216 hours. No, I don't pay attention to anything past f192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 2, 2012 Author Share Posted December 2, 2012 lol. And I get the crap in the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Maybe what we need is a Dec banter thread until we see some better consistency from run to run within a model, plus model to model agreement. All of the winter forecast's I have seen, including my own, for this area up here have the highest degree of uncertainty. You can therefore extrapolate that problem to a certain degree into the heart of this sub forum, so therefore it is not all that surprising that the models are still in mayhem mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 We don't have anything else to track so, might as well keep the thread. Storm could show up any one of those 3 days - as it looks now. Thinking next weekend will host the first snow system for the central lakes at least - if not the southern Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Maybe what we need is a Dec banter thread until we see some better consistency from run to run within a model, plus model to model agreement. That's what the long range and Dec disco threads are for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 2, 2012 Author Share Posted December 2, 2012 We don't have anything else to track so, might as well keep the thread. Storm could show up any one of those 3 days - as it looks now. Thinking next weekend will host the first snow system for the central lakes at least - if not the southern Lakes. The time frame on this thread can be adjusted accordingly, but the system during the time frame I have stated is the one to focus on. The storm after this one will require a new thread as they will probably be two different systems. If it's up to you guys, we can discuss the entire weekend on this thread, and just extend time frame accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 We don't have anything else to track so, might as well keep the thread. Storm could show up any one of those 3 days - as it looks now. Thinking next weekend will host the first snow system for the central lakes at least - if not the southern Lakes. I believe your right, the Euro from the 12/01 0z run and the 12z run have shown 3-6" snows across MN/WI or MN and all of the western to central areas of this sub forum. That was based on a ratio of 10 to 1, but temp profiles from H85 down to the surface would suggest something like 12 or 13 to 1, but like usual we have to wait and see if the bad boy gets suppressed or god forbid strengthens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Man, we need a f'n storm to pan out.... Seriously, it's not like the main Lakes/Ohio Valley main page is blowing up with new threads. I don't see a problem with it. Just make sure we update the title accordingly as things become a little more clear over the next few days. In addition, which has been mentioned, models have been hinting at something in this timeframe for 3-4 days. If it doesn't pan out, so be it. ON WISCONSIN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 2, 2012 Author Share Posted December 2, 2012 The time frame on this thread can be adjusted accordingly, but the system during the time frame I have stated is the one to focus on. The storm after this one will require a new thread as they will probably be two different systems. If it's up to you guys, we can discuss the entire weekend on this thread, and just extend time frame accordingly. For some reason, I thought the 9th was a Saturday, lol. Oh well. Man, we need a f'n storm to pan out.... Seriously, it's not like the main Lakes/Ohio Valley main page is blowing up with new threads. I don't see a problem with it. Just make sure we update the title accordingly as things become a little more clear over the next few days. Well there's been quite a bit of talk about something happening after this warm spell moved through, and the GFS has been a bit active during this time frame and after. I'd be really surprised if nothing panned out that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 This thread can't end worse than the November 26th-29th (Snow?) Storm thread started a week out can it? Guess it could...some st least see their first measurable even if it wasn't much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 OK, I understand this is banter stuff and complete fantasy land, but both the Euro and the GEM have been hinting at this. Lets take a look at the 12/01 12z Euro map. Notice the surface low just north of the border and the one just off the NE coast, and the strong surface ridge over the OH Valley, coupled with the surface low over NE and WY. There seems to be some blocking setting nw of the surface low off the east coast. This type of pattern has shown up on the latest two runs of the Euro, but with the GEM it looks more interesting as it wants to phase these low pressure systems into one. I think the Euro will eventually get there. So one of two things can happen, cold air will crash the system south, or what I think is more possible is that we get a phasing of the upper level jets and big storm will set up from some where near Chicago to the West apps mountains. My current thinking is that this will not produce a Nor'easter for the NE coast. As far a timing goes, I am thinking around Dec 15th give or take a couple of days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 could see a mn snow scenario threat develop there.. I'm probably reading that euro map wrong and its not like it will probably even look anything like that on the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 0Z GGEM has a decent clipper next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 could see a mn snow scenario threat develop there.. I'm probably reading that euro map wrong and its not like it will probably even look anything like that on the 00z run. A MN storm is possible but I think unlikely, look at the cold air nw of the WY low, I think that will act to drive the low just a bit further south than what what if favored for us. Again this is fantasy land, but there are some real strong hints of a pattern change with these maps, it could be a real interesting winter for some of you. I have stuck to my guns for my winter forecast for MSP, calling for temps about 2° below normal with below normal snowfall. December snowfall at 3.8" and season snowfall has been lowered from 38" to 28.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 0Z GGEM has a decent clipper next weekend Like the clipper it looks like it could happen, lets look at the GEM after that. The GEM at 168 hrs...notice the strong surface ridge, showing up on this map at 1028mb, higher resolution could show 1030mb. That's a strong ridge. Now at 180hrs: Strong surface is evident Now at 192...do you think that strong surface ridge will move off shore that fast....I tend to doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 I think a strong phased system will happen before this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Not to micro analyze the GGEM but based upon the moving parts I would have to say it probably would evolve like it is showing, with the block NE of New England. The Southern stream aspect of the storm is moving too far ENE. Of course it will probably change 12 hours from now so I won't go on further. Edit: it phases the 2 streams just a hair late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Not to micro analyze the GGEM but based upon the moving parts I would have to say it probably would evolve like it is showing, with the block NE of New England. The Southern stream aspect of the storm is moving too far ENE. Of course it will probably change 12 hours from now so I won't go on further. Edit: it phases the 2 streams just a hair late. EURO should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 EURO should be interesting Why? It doesn't have anything to do with the output of the GGEM, it could show something completely different... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 if you guys saw my earlier post, this is way I kind of lobbing for a banter thread for Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Lets hope the operation GFS is crapping the bed on the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Lets hope the operation GFS is crapping the bed on the 00z. The OP is taken way too seriously, look at the ensembles for a general overall picture, and that way there is no single run to be able to take verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Lets hope the operation GFS is crapping the bed on the 00z. Once again, it is 7-10 days out, don't micro analyze the potential. It will change several times between now and then, at this point it should just be noted there is a prospects of a storm in the time frame. How it evolves is completely up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 if you guys saw my earlier post, this is way I kind of lobbing for a banter thread for Dec That's what the long range and Dec disco threads are for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Once again, it is 7-10 days out, don't micro analyze the potential. It will change several times between now and then, at this point it should just be noted there is a prospects of a storm in the time frame. How it evolves is completely up in the air. I'm more concerned with the pattern than the individual storms. I guess the ensembles are holding pact Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Euro is in, looks awful, storm track suppressed to the south and east, at 240hrs we now get into a warmer zonal flow, once again. Glad I stuck with my merger guess of 3.8" for MSP in Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 It's a very progressive flow on the Euro, it'll change in 12 hours. The GGEM/GFS both drop a deuce of a low over the SW that becomes cutoff and the Euro does not. Hmm. Probably has a lot to do with the strength and orientation of the high pressure area building in the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 It's a very progressive flow on the Euro, it'll change in 12 hours. The GGEM/GFS both drop a deuce of a low over the SW that becomes cutoff and the Euro does not. Hmm. Probably has a lot to do with the strength and orientation of the high pressure area building in the Pacific. Thanks JoMo....I know this winter is very different from last winter, northern jet stayed well north, no phasing of the jet stream hardly at all. This year things are setting to up to be the opposite but the same. The northern jet dips south a bit, bringing us cold air, but the southern jet fails to gain latitude, keeping us dry once again. So what is worse warm and dry or cold and dry.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.