hm8 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Not sure the 18z GFS is gonna play ball... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Not sure the 18z GFS is gonna play ball... At 96 looks weaker/faster/slightly further east than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 At 96 looks weaker/faster/slightly further east than the 12z run. Yup...still a solid hit for WI/N. MI but we aren't seeing any really impressive solutions anymore like we were a couple days ago EDIT: Not really so good for WI even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 It's still a decent run, advisory snowmaker. It's a little weaker but still deepens nicely east of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 If anyone in MI/OH doesn't like this run, something is seriously wrong with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 If anyone in MI/OH doesn't like this run, something is seriously wrong with you. ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Yup...still a solid hit for WI/N. MI but we aren't seeing any really impressive solutions anymore like we were a couple days ago EDIT: Not really so good for WI even ? Looks just as good as the last run! Little less qpf, but still on the cold side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Haven't seen the soundings yet. Just looking at the crappy 2m temp plots. But this run is quite a bit warmer locally than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 ??? It's a favorable track. I keep saying again and again, taking account of mesoscale features with this system this far out would not be accurate. Please wait until the weekend before we start doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 ? Looks just as good as the last run! Little less qpf, but still on the cold side. Significantly less QPF I'd say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Low sitting over Lake Erie... bodes well for the Northern and Western Suburbs of DET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I don't know what to think this little northern vort max is going to do. This is off the 18z GFS. Both the 18z NAM fwiw and the 12z Euro have it stronger and well separted from the digging wave on the backside. In order to get a stronger storm IMO we need the to either A. phase or B. have the northern one weaker and not have an influence on the wave trying to dig into the four corners/southern plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 I don't enjoy 50 and rain. Something must be wrong with me. You're taking it verbatim. There is a greater chance of seeing a good storm with snow with the models trending this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 It's a favorable track. I keep saying again and again, taking account of mesoscale features with this system this far out would not be accurate. Please wait until the weekend before we start doing that. It's certainly not a favorable track for OH. SE MI is in the same boat. There's a fair bit of model consensus. Although this storm was always a long shot for the eastern part of this subforum, I don't think any person in those regions who is disappointed that this is in all likelihood a rain event has something "seriously wrong" about them. And can you elaborate on these "mesoscale features". I'm not following you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 You're taking it verbatim. There is a greater chance of seeing a good storm with snow with the models trending this way. Only if the lead storm formed a block. It doesn't look like it's going to do that. So I haven't a clue what makes you think this storm is going to trend east hard. But hey, I'll reap the benefits if you're right, so more power to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 Only if the lead storm formed a block. It doesn't look like it's going to do that. So I haven't a clue what makes you think this storm is going to trend east hard. But hey, I'll reap the benefits if you're right, so more power to you. That's what it did. It's certainly not a favorable track for OH. SE MI is in the same boat. There's a fair bit of model consensus. Although this storm was always a long shot for the eastern part of this subforum, I don't think any person in those regions who is disappointed that this is in all likelihood a rain event has something "seriously wrong" about them. And can you elaborate on these "mesoscale features". I'm not following you. Basically little details of the storm. Look how close this heavy band of snow is to our area. This system is getting its moisture. You might not see an apocalyptic storm, but if I were to get that band of snow, I'd be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I don't know what to think this little northern vort max is going to do. This is off the 18z GFS. Both the 18z NAM fwiw and the 12z Euro have it stronger and well separted from the digging wave on the backside. In order to get a stronger storm IMO we need the to either A. phase or B. have the northern one weaker and not have an influence on the wave trying to dig into the four corners/southern plains. Same....it's so persistently modeled that it's giving me doubts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Same....it's so persistently modeled that it's giving me doubts. Or you could get the northern wave to dig further south and be the strongest. Still could manage a good event with that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 That's what it did. I think one run of the EURO brought it near Lk Michigan? But if you remember before that, the models had a much better track for us through OH. So, if anything it was some early vacillation and now there's been a solid 24-36 hours of consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 There is more backlash precipitation this run, interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 I think one run of the EURO brought it near Lk Michigan? But if you remember before that, the models had a much better track for us through OH. So, if anything it was some early vacillation and now there's been a solid 24-36 hours of consistency. Consistency? Nah, don't think the models have shown any consistency with this storm other than having a storm. Maybe you can say the extent cone favors the upper midwest, but another run of the GFS later tonight showing this scenario will throw a money wrench into that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 That's what it did. Basically little details of the storm. Look how close this heavy band of snow is to our area. This system is getting its moisture. You might not see an apocalyptic storm, but if I were to get that band of snow, I'd be happy. That is not as good as it looks. Most of the precip has fallen by the time it gets cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 That is not as good as it looks. Most of the precip has fallen by the time it gets cold enough. thank you for pointing that out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 ? Looks just as good as the last run! Little less qpf, but still on the cold side. 18z had more than quarter inch less precip than the 12z for MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 That is not as good as it looks. Most of the precip has fallen by the time it gets cold enough. Exactly. This isn't a storm running into a cold air mass, it's cold pushing in as the precip pushes out. 6 hour accumulated precip with a sub-freezing temp at the end of that 6 hour period does not mean that all that precip fell as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 but another run of the GFS later tonight showing this scenario will throw a money wrench into that. I'll be sitting here waiting patiently for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 a few things to watch for tonight via the HPC and their evaluation of today's earlier runs...I'm sure many of you already know what to watch for...but for the rest...a few of the factors involved in the evolution.... MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 125 PM EST WED DEC 05 2012 VALID DEC 05/1200 UTC THRU DEC 09/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF EVALUATION WITH MODEL PREFERENCES ================================================================== NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT ============================================= PREFERENCE: 12Z CANADIAN/12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ENERGY MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF AMPLIFYING RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATE SATURDAY COMPETES WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE EMERGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FURTHER COMPLICATING THE FLOW PATTERN IS AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA (SEEN TO VARYING DEGREES ON THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE) WHICH COULD FLATTEN OUT THE LEADING SHORTWAVE EMERGING INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS MULTIPLE STREAM INTERACTION COMPLICATED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE JUST ON ITS HEELS MOVING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF PACIFIC RIDGING HAS LED TO A BIT OF VARIANCE IN THE GUIDANCE, WITH 12Z NAM THE STRONGEST WITH THE LEADING SHORTWAVE AND THE 12Z UKMET/12Z GFS STRONGER WITH A STRONGER/LAGGING SHORTWAVE. THE IDEAS ABOVE WOULD DISCOUNT THE NAM SOLUTION OUTRIGHT. THE 00Z GLOBAL/06Z GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A 12Z CANADIAN/12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF SOLUTION, WHICH WILL BE CHOSEN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 If anyone in MI/OH doesn't like this run, something is seriously wrong with you. ????.... low travels from Indy to Sandusky to Buffalo....that's a horrible track for ohio. Basically it's rain to backlash flurries. Michigan, on the other hand.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 It's a favorable track. I keep saying again and again, taking account of mesoscale features with this system this far out would not be accurate. Please wait until the weekend before we start doing that. Thank you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Exactly. This isn't a storm running into a cold air mass, it's cold pushing in as the precip pushes out. 6 hour accumulated precip with a sub-freezing temp at the end of that 6 hour period does not mean that all that precip fell as snow. Yeah, in this case you want to be well NW of the track, like MSN/MKE and Traverse City, in order to achieve mostly snow. If the storm trends stronger, cold air might be more readily produced closer to the low, but as it stands now, even Milwaukee and Muskegon may be marginal with a track through Indy, which is normally very good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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