Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Wave digs further south allowing for better gulf moisture into this thing reflected in the QPF fields. If we could somehow get this thing to dig that far south but go neutral/negative tilt earlier and allow for a southerly LLJ insteaad of southwest then there could be some big QPF numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 So the OP GFS is better at handling convection than the individual ensemble members? Definitely. They have the same convective/radiation parameterization, but the op is at a much lower resolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Wave digs further south allowing for better gulf moisture into this thing reflected in the QPF fields. If we could somehow get this thing to dig that far south but go neutral/negative tilt earlier and allow for a southerly LLJ insteaad of southwest then there could be some big QPF numbers. For sure...I think the writing is on the wall for us though, a big one is going to be a liquid event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 For sure...I think the writing is on the wall for us though, a big one is going to be a liquid event here. Not for sure. I'm a bit optimistic. If wave digs further south would come out a bit more southeast. That Euro run that went nuts to 988mb was almost all snow here. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 The Euro is more hot garbage. That northern wave needs to go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 The Euro is more hot garbage. That northern wave needs to go away. That whole evolution of the Northern vort max is weird, it slows down then all of a sudden it shoots NE 24 hours later instead of phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 That whole evolution of the Northern vort max is weird, it slows down then all of a sudden it shoots NE 24 hours later instead of phasing. Yeah it is. I honestly don't know what to favor with the GFS getting more consistent. What did the 12z GEM have? I'm mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Yeah it is. I honestly don't know what to favor with the GFS getting more consistent. What did the 12z GEM have? I'm mobile. GGEM and Ukie remained in the stronger camp.GGEM goes through Michigan and Ukie into Eastern IN, both with snows on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Here ya go T-snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 12z GFS says that Turtle better put those snow tires on the Mustang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 Couple more of these runs and I'm writing off SEMI except maybe the thumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Skilling posted the GFS snowfall map up and it shows a swath of 8-12", 50 miles either side of a line from Hawkeye's house to Saukville to East Tawas, MI. 4" line from DLL to GRB (northside), 4" line right through Chicago to Bad Axe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I'm not buying anything until there is snow falling and its accumulating. Precip has been almost impossible to get around here in any significant amt the past many months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I'm not buying anything until there is snow falling and its accumulating. Precip has been almost impossible to get around here in any significant amt the past many months. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 I'm not buying anything until there is snow falling and its accumulating. Precip has been almost impossible to get around here in any significant amt the past many months. Much rather be you than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Just give me some mood flakes at least. Need something to get me into the holiday mood after this weekends torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Ok; so it begins>>> http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2012/12/storm-early-next-week-aiming-at.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 It's early and well out of it's effective range but the NAM is certainly interesting with it's handling of the lead wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 It's early and well out of it's effective range but the NAM is certainly interesting with it's handling of the lead wave I noticed that too but was too sheepish to mention that I was looking at the long range NAM If anything it'll make the DGEX interesting tonight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 It's early and well out of it's effective range but the NAM is certainly interesting with it's handling of the lead wave Yeah was just going to comment on this. Lead/northern wave is more dominate as the backside wave hangs back over the rockies at 84hr. FWIW Caplan right now is favoring the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 FWIW Caplan right now is favoring the GFS. I am as well but probably something a bit further NW and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Its way too early, but we are finally under 100 hours and I have enough confidence to think this will smoke western Michigan and Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Its way too early, but we are finally under 100 hours and I have enough confidence to think this will smoke western Michigan and Chicago. Care to share your reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Its way too early, but we are finally under 100 hours and I have enough confidence to think this will smoke western Michigan and Chicago. lol yeah please share meteorological reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Its way too early, but we are finally under 100 hours and I have enough confidence to think this will smoke western Michigan and Chicago. Bold, but stupid bold. The energy that will call the shots has yet be sampled. Until then, this all in a very large cone of what if and where. Today Chicago...Tomorrow MSP if turns stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Care to share your reasoning? GFS-NAM-EURO run the storm over an exact path... The GFS and Euro have the storm over southern Michigan with a 50 mile separation at 100+ hours... Thats pretty amazing consensus. I'm just trying to put out an early guess, but this storm has been quite consistent. Early today I was more or less bummed over the long term pattern, I really haven't cared about individual events. This one is getting interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Bold, but stupid bold. The energy that will call the shots has yet be sampled. Until then, this all in a very large cone of what if and where. Today Chicago...Tomorrow MSP if turns stronger. It would be bold if I was selling this information to a client, if that was the case... I would shut my trap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 GFS-NAM-EURO run the storm over an exact path... The GFS and Euro have the storm over southern Michigan with a 50 mile separation at 100+ hours... Thats pretty amazing consensus. I'm just trying to put out an early guess, but this storm has been quite consistent. Early today I was more or less bummed over the long term pattern, I really haven't cared about individual events. This one is getting interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 specious reasoning for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 DTX GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR IN THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS AND THE EXPECTED PROXIMITY OF SEMI TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ITSELF, RAIN WILL BE THE FAVORED PTYPE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH AN OCCASIONAL PERIOD OF RA/SN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION NORTH OF I-69. BY CONTRAST, NEXT WEEK'S STORM WILL BE DYNAMICALLY STRONG AND WILL HAVE AVAILABLE AN ABUNDANCE OF COLD AIR COURTESY OF THE AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE PATTERN. THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO A NARROW STRIP OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION, POTENTIALLY BUT NOT NECESSARILY INCLUDING A PORTION OF THE CWA, FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN OF SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER AS A MORE TYPICAL DECEMBER PATTERN LOCKS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE FORECAST WILL BE MARKED BY INCREASED DIFFICULTY AND UNCERTAINTY OWING TO THE IMPORTANCE OF MESOSCALE AND LOW-AMPLITUDE FEATURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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