snowstormcanuck Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Enough on our plate as it is, but I noticed some additional energy dropping into the Plains l/w trough around 135 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I'd be a little fearful of mix, if I was in MKE...as it's modeled on the GFS. 700 low overtop them, 850 fairly close. Near the lake for sure, but west of the city, probably not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I'd be a little fearful of mix, if I was in MKE...as it's modeled on the GFS. 700 low overtop them, 850 fairly close. Good point...that's never an ideal location. I'm holding out hope we'll see the 850 low trend south along with the western trough in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Perhaps the lake cutter will help form a 50-50 low and make our next threat maybe around the 15th able to give us all snow. Just some food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I'd take this run for sure. The GFS has this area sub-zero at 850 throughout the event, but has the surface temps above freezing until mid afternoon. Could be rain or mix until the 850 low passes by to our south. I won't get too excited unless the Euro comes back onboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Milwaukee stays near the surface 0° line on the surface GFS with it not warming anymore than -4° at 850mb during the event. Milwaukee, imo is almost entirely snow on this run. If the air mass is cold enough, then people near the lake need not worry. Will be talking about enhancement, not mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Milwaukee stays near the surface 0° line on the surface GFS with it not warming anymore than -4° during the event. Milwaukee, imo is almost entirely snow on this run. If the air mass is cold enough, then people near the lake need not worry. Will be talking about enhancement, not mixing. way too early to care this much but the 850/700 low position is poor for even MKE and downright bad for N. Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Good point...that's never an ideal location. I'm holding out hope we'll see the 850 low trend south along with the western trough in future runs. Having spent 7 years on the shores of Lake MI (Sheboygan), I can most certainly tell you that regardless of where the 850mb line ends up, there will be mixing issues on the shores in December. I can't remember a cutter where we didn't have mixing issues, at least at the start of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Would be a very nice hit from IA to North/Central Michigan. Yeah, would definitely like some support from the Euro again though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Having spent 7 years on the shores of Lake MI (Sheboygan), I can most certainly tell you that regardless of where the 850mb line ends up, there will be mixing issues on the shores in December. I can't remember a cutter where we didn't have mixing issues, at least at the start of the event. Needless to say, snowlovers who live inland will not be venturing in the direction of Lake Michigan before or during the storm. I get the feeling that being about 6 or 7 miles inland will help immensely, but not totally escape mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Perhaps the lake cutter will help form a 50-50 low and make our next threat maybe around the 15th able to give us all snow. Just some food for thought. GFS doesn't seem to think so Wrt this event, verbatim it's several hours of PL/ZR (maybe a touch of snow right at the beginning?) Sunday night. So, not a complete wash for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 way too early to care this much but the 850/700 low position is poor for even MKE and downright bad for N. Illinois. Yeah, I not caught up in this run. It's just exciting to see something that resembles winter within 120 hours! Probably would see mixing here through 117 hours or so (Until the low passes directly south of the area.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Milwaukee stays near the surface 0° line on the surface GFS with it not warming anymore than -4° at 850mb during the event. Milwaukee, imo is almost entirely snow on this run. If the air mass is cold enough, then people near the lake need not worry. Will be talking about enhancement, not mixing. Not sure i agree. At least early in the season (Dec) the lake influences that 0 line more than you expect, regardless of how far south it is (to an extent). I've tracked multiple storms over the years and watched that 0 line hug north up the coast of lake MI. Though, to be fair, the cold air will win out eventually, but you likely deal with some mixing issues to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Needless to say, snowlovers who live inland will not be venturing in the direction of Lake Michigan before or during the storm. I get the feeling that being about 6 or 7 miles inland will help immensely, but not totally escape mixing. The difference in a few miles can be extraordinary and yeah, 6 or 7 miles can make a lot of difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 GFS doesn't seem to think so Wrt this event, verbatim it's several hours of PL/ZR (maybe a touch of snow right at the beginning?) Sunday night. So, not a complete wash for us. IMO the GFS has no idea how to handle all of the pieces of energy that will be going into this system. I still think there will be a secondary low that will follow this cutter but time will tell I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Not sure i agree. At least early in the season (Dec) the lake influences that 0 line more than you expect, regardless of how far south it is (to an extent). I've tracked multiple storms over the years and watched that 0 line hug north up the coast of lake MI. Though, to be fair, the cold air will win out eventually, but you likely deal with some mixing issues to start Yeah I've seen that too many times. Almost every storm the cold air wins up before the snow quits. I've seen an inch at the lakefront early in the season and 4-5 miles inland where I'm at there is over half a foot. One storm that did not have any mixing issues near the lake was the 12/1/2006 storm. It depends on the dynamics of the storm and the air mass being drawn in. Heck Buffalo got - what... 3' of snow that one October from 63° Lake Erie! Of course that was a different situation. But weirdier things can happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Things can still change but I think there's enough evidence to say that anyone roughly se of a DTW-UIN line is probably in trouble as far as significant snow (even northwest of there might be in trouble). It becomes an increasingly thread the needle scenario southeast of there. The meteorological weenie in me says we might as well go all out and realize the full potential even though it would probably not be wintry for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Wow, as per the 12z GFS, the driving conditions along the 416/401 corridor look to be horrific late Sunday into monday. I was hoping the storm might not arrive until, say, around 6am Monday. If this solution hols over the next couple of days, I may have to reschedule my planned day visit up to Ottawa from Toronto! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I just hope we can get enough snow to maintain a snowpack for a time, hopefully at least 2 or 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 CIPS analogs based off the 0z GFS at 120 hours: http://www.eas.slu.e...2&fhr=F120&flg= Shouldn't be a shock, but most would favor something fairly close to the 12z GFS, though may a bit tilted farther northwest with the extent...snowfall wise. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/impactguide.php?reg=MV&fhr=F120&model=GFS212 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 CIPS analogs based off the 0z GFS at 120 hours: http://www.eas.slu.e...2&fhr=F120&flg= Shouldn't be a shock, but most would favor something fairly close to the 12z GFS, though may a bit tilted farther northwest with the extent...snowfall wise. http://www.eas.slu.e...20&model=GFS212 Lol at the #1 analog, too bad this system is probably not going to be nearly that strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Props to M4D for starting this thread..inspire me to get my sleds ready in time to ride if we get hit here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 CIPS analogs based off the 0z GFS at 120 hours: http://www.eas.slu.e...2&fhr=F120&flg= Shouldn't be a shock, but most would favor something fairly close to the 12z GFS, though may a bit tilted farther northwest with the extent...snowfall wise. http://www.eas.slu.e...20&model=GFS212 Interesting little product there...thanks for the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 12Z GEFS: Sorry wrong way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 GEFS are pretty crappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Some numbers off the 12z GFS 0.86" at MKE with 850 and 925 temps < 0 C but 2 m temps hovering around 35-37 F thanks to the lake Away from the lake surface temps cooperate as well. 0.75" at MSN, all snow. 0.86" at DVN, but again a bit marginal, with 925 temps hovering around -1 C for the first half to 2/3. 0.30" falls with the entire column below 0 C 0.78" at RFD that is probably all snow, with 2 m temps sitting at 34 F for a while. 0.15" with the entire column below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Ukie and GGEM are still dece... (although the evolution on the UK is weird looking...tough to tell what exactly is going on with the 24hr gaps) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 GEFS are pretty crappy They really don't seem that bad if the mean is any indication. Suppression might still be expected at this range by the GFS anyways. If the Euro ensembles continue to trend SE then it might be time to start to punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 GEFS are pretty crappy Wouldn't necessarily trust GEFS right now. This thing is going to need convection to really ramp up, and the GEFS is pretty poor at that. Null forecast should be GFS op + ECM op + ECM Ens, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Wouldn't necessarily trust GEFS right now. This thing is going to need convection to really ramp up, and the GEFS is pretty poor at that. Null forecast should be GFS op + ECM op + ECM Ens, imo. So the OP GFS is better at handling convection than the individual ensemble members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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