Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Stronger wave moving into Canada from the nrn plains isn't helping the cause either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Stronger wave moving into Canada from the nrn plains isn't helping the cause either. Yeah it really put a lot of emphasis on that thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Horrible run. Non event here. Will get to bed earlier tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Euro, what a party pooper..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Not saying it will happen but the 00z Euro is a good example of how a big event is not a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 This storm looks like a Nothern MI special, maybe into central / north Wisconsin snow storm... thinking it might be mainly rain here in Central MI, and if you are south of that, good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 This storm looks like a Nothern MI special, maybe into central / north Wisconsin snow storm... thinking it might be mainly rain here in Central MI, and if you are south of that, good luck. Maybe, but that's not for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Maybe, but that's not for sure. at least there is a storm to track lol, more than I can say for last years torchy winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 There were plenty of storms last year that faded right around the same time frame...not saying this is a done deal and they're more or less unrelated but let's not act like this year has been any better. Anyways, this thread really died with the 0z Euro...understandable, it was a terrible run. The ensembles also moved hard in that direction. So definitely some bad trends for just about the entire subforum. Hopefully we see some movement back towards a more dynamic setup today but anytime you see movement across the globals and their ensembles all in one direction...it becomes hard to discount. Don't be surprised to see the trends continue...less digging and a quicker passage across the northern tier of the country...pretty much the opposite of what I was feeling a day or two ago. HPC talking about the unfortunate trends TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THE UPSTREAM RIDGE HAVE FAVORED DECENT SWWD ELONGATION OF FLOW WITHIN THE OVERALL MEAN TROF... AND SOME PRIOR GUIDANCE PLUS THE 00Z UKMET SHOW THIS IDEA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SLOWER EJECTION. HOWEVER THE LATEST MAJORITY CLUSTERING OF MDLS/ENSEMBLES SUGGESTS THAT THE UPSTREAM NRN PAC SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE RIDGE SUFFICIENTLY QUICKLY TO PUSH ALONG THE LEADING SYSTEM IN A FASTER MANNER. GIVEN THIS TREND OCCURRING FAIRLY EARLY IN THE MEDR PERIOD SUCH A SCENARIO APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY SO WILL LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE DETERMINISTIC FCST. WITH THIS SYSTEM THE 00Z ECMWF LEANS TO THE FAST SIDE WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER/DEEPER WITH AN AVG OF ENSEMBLE MEANS BETWEEN THESE SOLNS. AT SOME FCST HRS THE GEFS MEAN IS SOMEWHAT SLOW AS WELL THOUGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 There were plenty of storms last year that faded right around the same time frame...not saying this is a done deal and they're more or less unrelated but let's not act like this year has been any better. Anyways, this thread really died with the 0z Euro...understandable, it was a terrible run. The ensembles also moved hard in that direction. So definitely some bad trends for just about the entire subforum. Hopefully we see some movement back towards a more dynamic setup today but anytime you see movement across the globals and their ensembles all in one direction...it becomes hard to discount. Don't be surprised to see the trends continue...less digging and a quicker passage across the northern tier of the country...pretty much the opposite of what I was feeling a day or two ago. Bolded below FWIW. The Euro op has trended much weaker with the early week system for the Plains/Midwest. The GFS op has a strong system, but it's delayed and does not really start churning until it reached Indianapolis on Monday morning. The Euro ensemble actually looks closer to the GFS op than the Euro op. I still feel confident that there will a formidable storm next week, but there is high uncertainty as to where it ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Bolded below FWIW. I was reading that this morning..he's keeping the faith in a storm for our region but even the ensembles seem to be hinting pretty hard that big storm potential is backing off some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I was reading that this morning..he's keeping the faith in a storm for our region but even the ensembles seem to be hinting pretty hard that big storm potential is backing off some. Well, we'll see. I'll personally give it two more days before heading to the lifeboats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Well, we'll see. I'll personally give it two more days before heading to the lifeboats. yeah I haven't punted but we just had a false start...2nd and long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 yeah I haven't punted but we just had a false start...2nd and long Mike Tice calling the plays? Sorry OT. I can't glean much looking at 24 hr intervals on the op Euro and its ensembles. In between hours I assume may have differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Mike Tice calling the plays? Sorry OT. I can't glean much looking at 24 hr intervals on the op Euro and its ensembles. In between hours I assume may have differences. yeah the sketchy intervals and inconsistent timing issues make comparing Euro ensemble runs hard. Just looks to me like the great basin trough is trending less robust and the resulting baroclinic zone tamer but maybe not. I'm saving all my Tim Beckman winter zingers for when it's February and it still hasn't snowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 We're getting closer to the point where we can start watching the SREF handing of the h5/vort out west but man, they're all over and pretty garbage for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 FWIW 6z GFS was pretty similar to the 0z with regards to track, but less deep with the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Is the NAM picking up the storm yet? Normally I'd look myself, but I'm burned out from the (by and large) absolute boredom we've had for the past (at least) 12 months and the few non-threats we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Is the NAM picking up the storm yet? Normally I'd look myself, but I'm burned out from the (by and large) absolute boredom we've had for the past (at least) 12 months and the few non-threats we've had. NAM was picking up on the first wave pretty good. Not in range yet for the second (in the Midwest at least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Is the NAM picking up the storm yet? Normally I'd look myself, but I'm burned out from the (by and large) absolute boredom we've had for the past (at least) 12 months and the few non-threats we've had. Of course it has the system but it's on the fringe of its range and has been rather inconsistent (as expected) with handling of the h5/vort. It does appear to favor the dominant northern 850 low that we're seeing emerge across the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Early guess after looking at the Pacific is to be prepared for some more inconsistency from the 12z GFS....Pac ridge def a little less flat. Watching the early periods and trying to extrapolate changes is always fun...but I kind of suck at it. EDIT: western trough should be at least a little more amplified this run...might help produce something a little more interesting for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Early guess after looking at the Pacific is to be prepared for some more inconsistency from the 12z GFS....Pac ridge def a little less flat. Watching the early periods and trying to extrapolate changes is always fun...but I kind of suck at it. Agreed....72hrs out and the 500mb map is pretty noticeably different already in the N. Plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Agreed....72hrs out and the 500mb map is pretty noticeably different already in the N. Plains Not to downplay the changes in the Pacific but it didn't take much to lead to some rather drastic downstream changes with the amplification of the western trough. Legit baroclinic zone with this run....should be a good hit for IA/WI (this is correct + NW IL) 850 low still displaced well NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 It sucks that the lead storm doesn't slow and deepen more rapidly over E Canada. It could have really helped block the cold air in out ahead of the main storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 12z GFS, not bad. Definitely a good hit for IA and WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 12z GFS, not bad. Definitely a good hit for IA and WI. Iowa crew to MKE crew make out nicely...extreme northern tier of IL does ok. Going to need that 850 much further southwest to avoid cold rain in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Not too bad here either! Looks like a I-88 and north special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Not too bad here either! Looks like a I-88 and north special. looks cold rainy but you might be close to a decent 8:1 4"er Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Iowa crew to MKE crew make out nicely...extreme northern tier of IL does ok. Going to need that 850 much further southwest to avoid cold rain in Chicago. I'd be a little fearful of mix, if I was in MKE...as it's modeled on the GFS. 700 low overtop them, 850 fairly close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Probably a best case scenario for Des Moines, Dubuque and Milwaukee. Probably more realistic to think we will get either a mix as this low deepens further NW than it is now or the system is suppressed. I like to see solid runs like this, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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