BowMeHunter Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 lol Might see an amplified Euro run tonight if this is any indication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 nice rain to snow along the lake. gotta get them winds NE asap. You mean North! Looks like this is as far north as the 0°C 850 line goes at 126hr. Looks really good for your area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 central IA-southern WI-northern MI do best on the GFS run as northern IL comes quite close to Alek's worst enemy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 lol would be interesting to see the qpf for that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Looks like quite the phased solution on the UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Wowza on the GEM. Deepens 15mb in 12hr on what looks to be a good track for here. Operational models other than the Euro now hinting at the real potential with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 GFS depicts a moderate to semi strong Vort lobe. Other factors outside of this vort really mess up a more further SW to NE wide spread mid sized amplified system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 GFS depicts a moderate to semi strong Vort lobe. Other factors outside of this vort really mess up a more further SW to NE wide spread mid sized amplified system. Widespread mid-sized amplified system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Widespread mid-sized amplified system? Yeah, something that isn't insanely powerful, not a perfect bowling ball closed off 3 or 4 times at H5. But a system that pumps a lot of moisture on the cold side of the H7 and H8 fronts and has a huge wide front end band that mostly connects along the mid level to surface lows with a decent backside that get's stronger as the system deepens and closes off at H5. I think in 1993 in mid to late February we had a couple systems move more West to East through the region laying down a lot of snow from South of I-70 to North of I-80. I might be exaggerating the effects of them. But I recall looking back and it being a lot of wide spread 3+ inches with relatively weak vort max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 GFS says I'll be using the snow shovel this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 GFS Ensemble Mean looks pretty strong. Weakly positive/neutral tilt by 120. Swings negative by 144 and a bit slower than the OP, from what I could tell. Usually it's a good sign when you see the 552 line that far south this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 This isn't a super organized vort lobe but it's pretty stout for such a weak system off the GFS as it amplify and head's east. The outcome from the OP GFS is a decent 3-7 wide band in Iowa/MN and into southern Wisconsin. BUt it's pretty weak for a system that closes off at 5280DM for a bit over N. IL. I am not an expert, I don't want anyone to think I actually know what I am talking about. I am just trying to throw some ideas out there for us to go over. We have great Met's in this sub-forum, but the great met to "weenie" ratio is way low, so we have to go out on a limb and open up conversation about these details even if we are wrong over some things. But the GFS does get this down a -300DM anomaly, that is very low and the out come is pretty weak for the places to my North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Nice to see great prospects of a significant band of heavy snowfall for someone across the region. Haha, probably the worst timing, between a dynamic and a synoptic final, but when's the last time we've had a potential sub 990 mb deepening low moving through the region? In any case, great support tonight so far. BTW, are the wunderground maps showcasing Euro precip anymore? Haven't checked the site for a long time, and was not able to see the last couple runs' precip/snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 BTW, are the wunderground maps showcasing Euro precip anymore? Haven't checked the site for a long time, and was not able to see the last couple runs' precip/snowfall. Hasn't been working for anyone the past couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Based on the ensemble qpf field, I think the GFS ensembles are east of the OP. Which is what id like to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Looks like western midwest snowstorm it is which probably fits the pacific ridge's formation. So are you thinking Plains or W Great Lakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Nice to see great prospects of a significant band of heavy snowfall for someone across the region. Haha, probably the worst timing, between a dynamic and a synoptic final, but when's the last time we've had a potential sub 990 mb deepening low moving through the region? In any case, great support tonight so far. BTW, are the wunderground maps showcasing Euro precip anymore? Haven't checked the site for a long time, and was not able to see the last couple runs' precip/snowfall. March 2nd of this year I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Hasn't been working for anyone the past couple runs. Its done that before and came back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Is this tonight's GFS ensemble mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Is this tonight's GFS ensemble mean? im checking edit: looks like it pulled up an old cached image, cant find it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Is this tonight's GFS ensemble mean? That's the GFS operational. This is the GFS ensemble mean (Euro is running, btw) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Euro at 48 is essentially a carbon copy of what the 00z last night was at 72, except that the second wave in behind isn't closed off at 522 dm like it was last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 (Euro is running, btw) where? storm vista? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 where? storm vista? http://www.instantweathermaps.com Usually has it pretty fast, no precip or any of that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Changes are evident by 102hr. Trof not digging as far south, weaker sfc low in the srn plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Funky look at 108hr. One wave trying to dig into the four corners with another slighty stronger wave across ND/SD/MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 That East Pac ridge isn't as amplified this run, which leads to the initial jet streak entering the coast at a shallower angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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