Gilbertfly Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Did this happen even once last winter? If it did it was extremely transient and made systems cut-off in the four corners quickly...obviously by nature they are all transient....but last year it was too damn rapid if it happened.... keepin' my eyes on the HP coming outta canada for tonights runs .... just trend checkin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 No different than Mr. bourgeois royal Al Gore himself trying to squash the fossil fuel industry so his business ventures into non-fossil fuel industries pay off. The main difference is the climate science has moved more in Gore's favor during the last decade. In 1996, "climate change" was something people laughed at. By 2010, it had become much more serious and universally supported. I see JB types at my employer's all the time. They push out cold winter forecasts for their business and generally try to come off as 'skeptic', but get them into a quiet room and they are more open. JB is probably similiar. Lets face it as well, a warmer climate is still going to have cold, cold winters. Maybe the days of -10 in Ohio will be tougher to come by, but you don't need strong cold air for a snowy cold winter. People don't like cold air(we are the weenie freaks). IMO the east coast factor is large as well. They flood, bad. storm thread? Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 take the JB/DT/Climate change all other non-sense talk here.....>>> http://www.americanw...d/page__st__175 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I know a lot of you are not trying to troll, but a lot of the posts starting with DT and JB have turned this thread off topic. I highly recommend you guys start a "banter" thread of sorts, so that this thread can be only pertaining to the upcoming winter storm threat. Didn't see this post until after I'd replied. You're right. JB talk should be kept out of storm threads. I think they actually started a JB thread in the NYC forum last Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Enough with the climate change or overall temp average comments. Unless they're directly relevant to this storm, it doesn't make sense for us to have another contentious subject debated ad nauseum in this thread (as if this storm(s) wasn't highly scrutinized or debated itself). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I know a lot of you are not trying to troll, but a lot of the posts starting with DT and JB have turned this thread off topic. I highly recommend you guys start a "banter" thread of sorts, so that this thread can be only pertaining to the upcoming winter storm threat. I'm going to say this again. The off topic posts people are making don't belong in any other thread, so a banter thread is clearly a must. Keep this thread to storm discussion only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I'm going to say this again. The off topic posts people are making don't belong in any other thread, so a banter thread is clearly a must. Keep this thread to storm discussion only. It would help if you would delete the posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Have to say that one thing I did like about the 18z GFS run was that it delayed the storms arrival in central and eastern Ontario until Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 It would help if you would delete the posts. Sorry, I've been doing some work. I created a JB, DT, and other banter thread. I moved a lot of those posts into that thread. Some of the posts, especially the ones with the composites weren't bad posts in themselves so I figured that it would be suitable to allow the participants to continue their discussion without polluting this thread, or another thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 With the strong temperature gradient setting up and a strong jet impinging on the baroclinic zone I don't think there is anything to worry about as to whether or not there will be a system. I'm pretty confident that there will be something to track, just a matter of where this thing is gonna end up going. As for the models, they'll be all over the place for a few more days. I wouldn't be looking for a whole lot of consistency from them... so don't jump off the cliff if it doesn't look good for a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 With the strong temperature gradient setting up and a strong jet impinging on the baroclinic zone I don't think there is anything to worry about as to whether or not there will be a system. I'm pretty confident that there will be something to track, just a matter of where this thing is gonna end up going. As for the models, they'll be all over the place for a few more days. I wouldn't be looking for a whole lot of consistency from them... so don't jump off the cliff if it doesn't look good for a run. Well said as always. Bolded is one of the main keys here. Very favorable synoptic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Doesn't the GFS always lose storms in the mid range? It certainly does with the EC storms I've been in in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Doesn't the GFS always lose storms in the mid range? It certainly does with the EC storms I've been in in the past. It does sometimes, it is not an always situation but it is notorious for this occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 0z GFS should be decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 00GFS is diggin'...should cancle suicide watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 00GFS is diggin'...should cancle suicide watches. just going to bring out a new round from those east who are now going to see rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Seems a little fast too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 much better for nebraska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Looks like Wisconsin, Iowa, SE MN are in the snow this run. Northern solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 992mb over DTX...warm to start off for many but decent backside snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 just going to bring out a new round from those east who are now going to see rain. Cancel some, start others...so it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 992mb over DTX...warm to start off for many but decent backside snow That sounds like a good path for us here in Western Michigan. I am guessing probably a mix to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 992mb over DTX...warm to start off for many but decent backside snow 850/700 lows pass right over Chicago though...no sense getting too into surface features but most of us need those much further south. Take away is that the 6z/12z runs were not inevitable trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 At least I called it right that the '**** the bed' runs of earlier in the day would go away this run. A couple funny things occur on this run but the main gist of it, is that a much stronger solution is back on board. One thing I would note. I think this thing ends up digging deeper than the GFS shows currently, so I would expect to see further adjustments upward in strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 nice rain to snow along the lake. gotta get them winds NE asap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 trough takes a little too long to go negative but a decent defo still managed to get going for western Michigan. I'm sure a few of the ensembles still have monsters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 That sounds like a good path for us here in Western Michigan. I am guessing probably a mix to snow? Awesome run for N/W MI and solid elsewhere in the mitten...foot plus verbatim in the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Awesome run for N/W MI and solid elsewhere in the mitten...foot plus verbatim in the north. Sounds good. Lock it in for FIVE days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 just need to shift the heavier axis of qpf southwest by 150 miles lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Good call Stebs on the getting a good storm back on this run. No sense in getting into details but usually the H7 low passing over or just south of you is good. 850mb low track is a bit weird to me and with the sfc low track almost perfect this run for this location would of thought less of a WAA push earlier on. LLJ orientation to the warm front might be hindering amount of cold sector precip but still a good snow for some and then it's off to the races once the trof goes crazy as the sfc low bombs out looking like some of the ensemble members as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.