michsnowfreak Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Don't jinx me please, lol, and most importantly, don't tease me. I have no expectations of snow from this storm. Although my area tends to get shafted by dry slots, and mixing issues. It's rare that we get all snow the whole entire storm. Dryslot is entirely dependent on stormtrack. Very interesting you mention mixing issues. Most storms here have no problem being all snow. If have to look at my data but I would say that a good 80% of snowfalls, say ov er 3" tend to be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 4, 2012 Author Share Posted December 4, 2012 Dryslot is entirely dependent on stormtrack. Very interesting you mention mixing issues. Most storms here have no problem being all snow. If have to look at my data but I would say that a good 80% of snowfalls, say ov er 3" tend to be all snow. I know the dry slot is dependent on track, but it seems more often than not, it passes through at least some portion of SEMI. Even DTX makes a mention of a dry slot in their AFD since we're famous for it. I could be wrong, but I've noticed this with many storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 modest differences with artic airmass into to plains by hr 111 or so compared to 12z run to run consistency on the gfs remains poor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 pretty large difference on 500 vorts from 12z to 18z a hr 120 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Colder air has settled further south for sure by 111 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Colder air has settled further south for sure by 111 hours. Great, sounds like even more divergence from the Euro ensembles, as if we need it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 nice weenie @ 132 over southern mi.. just couldn't get its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Great, sounds like even more divergence from the Euro ensembles, as if we need it now. Actually it's not that much different. vs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Pretty large difference between the 12z and 18z GFS. Much more progressive and doesn't hold the system in the SW. Not very consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 4, 2012 Author Share Posted December 4, 2012 18z GFS <3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 18z GFS <3 ?????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 GFS is turning this thing more and more similar (obviously not the same) to that non-issue storm of Nov 27th-29th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 All the moisture gets hung up to the south with that line of thunderstorms shooting eastward. Need to slow this system down. Maybe a 2-4" event for some members. As some of us say the 18z runs are the kookier ones! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 4, 2012 Author Share Posted December 4, 2012 ?????????? I like the placement of the low. Worrying about moisture at this point is moot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 18z GFS <3 ...might wanna look again...track was nice for us but it was dry as hell. EDIT: Ah. Guess you didn't mean verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 All the weenies will be huddled around me and GFS at 10:30 for the newest installment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 And yet again the GFS finds a new way to spin up a system with different issues. I wonder if the system that slams into the GOA ridge around 114/120hr is playing a role in the trof orientation over the plains. It's a good deal further south this run as the 12z run had it further north over/near Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 At least we are tracking something ....Feels pretty good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 At least we are tracking something ....Feels pretty good! Yea but still a bit confused with this event. If phasing occurs in the southwest, is it likely to track in the plains/western great lakes or will there be something north stunting it, thus a further south track/movement more ENE. If theres something to the north blocking it, does that affect how strong the phasing is or affect the strength of the low? Always wondered if a strongly phased storm can move ENE. Usually see a more NNE movement. My first post this winter. Nice to see everybody and wishing everyone a spread the wealth winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I know the dry slot is dependent on track, but it seems more often than not, it passes through at least some portion of SEMI. Even DTX makes a mention of a dry slot in their AFD since we're famous for it. I could be wrong, but I've noticed this with many storms. Historically, we had quite a few major storms go from heavy snow to rain, but in recent years, I really don't remember such a storm. The few that do changeover tend to be rain TO snow rather than the other way around. Looking at our top 10 snowfalls for 2010-11, the GHD had some sleet the latter portion of the storm, but it didnt really affect the outcome (dryslot did however)....and the Dec 12th storm started as rain but turned to heavy snow....all other storms were all snow. Our top 10 snowfalls for 2011-12 (if you can believe it LOL) were also primarily snow. The Dec 5th snowfall started as rain but turned to snow, and the Feb 23/24 storm ended as light rain, all others were all snow. I chart the top 10 snowfalls each winter and my estimate seems to be pretty good....a good 80% are all snow, and not even 10% are situations where snow ends as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Yea but still a bit confused with this event. If phasing occurs in the southwest, is it likely to track in the plains/western great lakes or will there be something north stunting it, thus a further south track/movement more ENE. If theres something to the north blocking it, does that affect how strong the phasing is or affect the strength of the low? Always wondered if a strongly phased storm can move ENE. Usually see a more NNE movement. My first post this winter. Nice to see everybody and wishing everyone a spread the wealth winter. Welcome back aboard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 And yet again the GFS finds a new way to spin up a system with different issues. I wonder if the system that slams into the GOA ridge around 114/120hr is playing a role in the trof orientation over the plains. It's a good deal further south this run as the 12z run had it further north over/near Alaska. consistency issues are one of my biggest issues with the GFS right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 consistency issues are one of my biggest issues with the GFS right now It's pretty bad right now. Have to ride the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 It's pretty bad right now. Have to ride the Euro. OPC poppin' on a nice PAC ridge @H96...helpful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 ah-hem. Could we please get back on topic? That is a nice looking Pac ridge posted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 The 18z Ensembles look interesting to say the least. Many have a cutter, but they all seem to have a different time period. One has a cutter affecting the local area as early as 120 hours out, or as late as 164 hours out. So many possibilities it still looks like, in terms of outcomes and timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Yea but still a bit confused with this event. If phasing occurs in the southwest, is it likely to track in the plains/western great lakes or will there be something north stunting it, thus a further south track/movement more ENE. If theres something to the north blocking it, does that affect how strong the phasing is or affect the strength of the low? Always wondered if a strongly phased storm can move ENE. Usually see a more NNE movement. My first post this winter. Nice to see everybody and wishing everyone a spread the wealth winter. The upper level divergence is much stronger in a deeper low pressure along the ridge leading to that motion. Weaker storms aren't as amplified by the jet stream leading to a more easterly flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 OPC poppin' on a nice PAC ridge @H96...helpful Did this happen even once last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 consistency issues are one of my biggest issues with the GFS right now Hell we had 4 runs in a row now, all with completely different solutions. For anyone to jump ship because of that shouldn't been on the ship to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I know a lot of you are not trying to troll, but a lot of the posts starting with DT and JB have turned this thread off topic. I highly recommend you guys start a "banter" thread of sorts, so that this thread can be only pertaining to the upcoming winter storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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