December 9-11, 2012 (Winter?) Storm

[weathergy]

Man some people really let last winter get to them and don't even forecast anymore. Don't even post if your posting calls based off a hunch or something in the past. Look at the pattern and setup and forecast.

Sigh.

I understand yours and other's opinions. I agree with you somewhat. But we are not catering to a casual audience that doesn't understand that there are vast uncertainties in the study of our atmosphere. This is an audience that loves everything to do with weather, and if we make a bad forecast, so what? We don't have to worry about being fired, or ratings taking a dive. There's no real reason to be uptight.

There are even disclaimers in the forum rules.

The owners and or staff of Americanwx.com are not responsible for any messages posted. We do not vouch for or warrant the accuracy, completeness or usefulness of any message, and are not responsible for the contents of any message.

So if someone is using the information on here for operational purposes, they are in the wrong place.

So please people, quit being tightwads, and lighten up.

/soapbox

[A-L-E-K]

i suspect you missed his point

[weathergy]

i suspect you missed his point

I got his point, I just don't like when people complain like that.

[A-L-E-K]

IWX says to hold off punting on a stronger more phased solution

[wisconsinwx]

IWX says to hold off punting on a stronger more phased solution

I agree, just because it is so far out. That said, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see another boring progressive frontal passage since that's been the recent theme.

[Thundersnow12]

IWX says to hold off punting on a stronger more phased solution

A HIGHER IMPACT EVENT APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE MONDAY/TUESDAY

TIMEFRAME AS A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE

BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE

SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. 12Z GUIDANCE OVERALL TRENDED WEAKER AND

FARTHER EAST WITH THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW GIVEN LESS PHASING WITH MORE

NORTHERN STREAM DOMINANCE/CONFLUENCE. LOTS TO BE RESOLVED HERE AND

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MODELS RESORT BACK TO A STRONGER/MORE

PHASED SOLUTION WITH STRONG BAROCLINICITY AND FAVORABLE JET SUPPORT

SUPPORT. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME HEAVIER RAIN AND ACCUMULATING

SNOW TO PARTS OF THE CORN BELT/GREAT LAKES AND BEARS WATCHING.

[Thundersnow12]

I got his point, I just don't like when people complain like that.

lol not even close when you bringing up points about disclaimers.

All i said was don't post when you don't have any reasoning to your statement. Look at some of the better posters and mets on here...they explain why. Not like some who just say it's going to be a frontal wave because such and such and its what the models do. Gimme a break and learn to forecast.

[A-L-E-K]

I don't why people get hyped up over model runs in the 120-180hr range. It is all "possibilities" and what ifs. Not complete fantasies like in the truncated timeframe, but not sure things either.

Might as well let it progress to we get into the 72-120hr range. By then, choices on how the pattern will evolve will become more clear.

maybe this thread isn't for you

[Gilbertfly]

teleconnections are there...

sampling needed for the finer details...

either we get a data collecting flight in the Pac....or we wait 3 or so more days....

[A-L-E-K]

major differences in the ECM/GFS ensemble mean by 120

[Gilbertfly]

FWIW.........HPC blended guidance for D6 / 10DEC

[BowMeHunter]

I gave up on the GHD storm pretty early thinking I'd be mostly missed SE. That would be my early fear now.. It could also all come together perfect and get pissed on still. Potential is there for something really special though and that's all we can ask for..

First call would be for a Michigan special low end warning.

[kab2791]

APX's take on this

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY (EXTENDED PERIODS)...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL

DIFFERENCES REMAIN JUST AS GLARING IN THE DETAILS. ABOUT THE ONLY

THING I HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN IS SAYING THAT WE TREND COLDER AND

MORE UNSETTLED AS TROUGHINESS/COLDER AIR DESCENDS INTO THE CONUS

WITH THE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE/STORM TRACK STRETCHING FROM THE SW

STATES UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH

THAT TRACK THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR A DECENT STORM TO

DEVELOP AND BRING NRN MICHIGAN A WINTRY STORM. ECMWF SOLUTION HAD

SUCH A STORM IN YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

TODAYS 00Z RUN HAS A WEAKER VERSION BUT THEN DEVELOPS ANOTHER STRONG

STORM FOR TUESDAY (A SYSTEM THAT WAS NOT THERE IN THE 12Z RUN). 12Z

SOLUTION SUPPRESSES THE STORM TRACK A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND EAST OF

NRN MICHIGAN...INTERESTING.

ON THE FLIP SIDE...GFS WANTS NOTHING TO DO WITH ANY HIGH IMPACT

STORMS IMPACTING NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY. INSTEAD...MAINTAINS

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN STATES AND ALSO SUPPRESSES THE

STORM TRACK A BIT MORE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.

WHAT TO DO? AGAIN...GIVEN THE STORM TRACK...POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY

THERE FOR A HIGH IMPACT STORM TO DEVELOP AND TRACK THROUGH THE

REGION ANYTIME FROM SATURDAY ONWARD. BUT I JUST DONT HAVE THE

CONFIDENCE YET TO JUMP ON ANY ONE SCENARIO. ONE NOTE HOWEVER...LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AREA

CLIMATOLOGICALLY PREFER A TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...NOT

THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AS RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS SUGGEST. SO I

SUSPECT THAT WE WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A DECENT STORM

BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW AND/OR A MIX ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN DURING

THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BUT EXACTLY WHEN AND WHETHER OR NOT IT/S HIGH

IMPACT IS UP IN THE AIR AT THIS POINT.

[weathergy]

lol not even close when you bringing up points about disclaimers.

All i said was don't post when you don't have any reasoning to your statement. Look at some of the better posters and mets on here...they explain why. Not like some who just say it's going to be a frontal wave because such and such and its what the models do. Gimme a break and learn to forecast.

I did get your point, but my point was, and I've been saying this for awhile. Just ignore it, because to me, it's just being mean to the less knowledgeable people on here. If this board wanted just qualified people posting on here, they would ask for a picture of your degree, or some proof of experience in the field. If I was expecting qualified opinions with all reasoning, I would just stick to reading NWS products. But people go out on a limb here regularly with no scientific evidence backing them up. It's fun and exciting to me to read their opinions.

Anyways, this is the last thing I'm saying about this, carry on with the thread.

[buckeye]

Man some people really let last winter get to them and don't even forecast anymore. Don't even post if your posting calls based off a hunch or something in the past. Look at the pattern and setup and forecast.

....unless it's to conclude snow and cold.

Personally, I'm not a warminista, but I'm gonna be real about what i see going on. I know all about indices and what they mean and where they're forecasted to go, but quite honestly whether indices or enso, the outcomes seem to be inconsistent to what we would normally expect. Right now we are in a pattern wrt the modelling where the long range looks better until it approaches and beomes the mid range and short range. I remember last week, I was going to make a post at how the long range gfs was reminding me of Dec. '89 because of the incredibly broad deep trough it had...almost coast to coast deep arctic air and cross polar flow, (this would have been for next week).

DT made a great point in his update yesterday or Sunday. He basically said everyone wants to embrace a fantasy longterm outbreak of severe winter weather, while ignoring the actual, and more impressive warmth we are currently experiencing.

As I type this, pouring rain and near 60...Dec4th...that use to be unusual and for some reason it almost seems normal now.

[Thundersnow12]

You want a laugh, compare the NAM and GFS at 84hr lol

[dmc76]

DTX

THE THEME OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE MILD AND WET FOR THE WEEKEND...TRANSITIONING TO COLDER AND POSSIBLY SNOWIER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ONE WAVE WILL PROBABLY COME THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER AIR TO MAKE INROADS MONDAY...WITH 12Z EUROPEAN ADVERTISING A FAST MOVING SNOW STORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH UPPER WAVE COMING OUT OF EASTERN TEXAS/WESTERN GULF COAST STATES. SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WOULD BE SOLIDLY WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE...WITH DRY SLOT JUST REACHING THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER. THE CANADIAN IS FASTER WITH PHASING...AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY WARMER/FARTHER WEST AND FASTER WITH THE MAIN LOW (SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY)....WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT LESS PHASED...BUT STILL SHOWS THE MAIN SOUTHERN LOW IMPACTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.

[wisconsinwx]

major differences in the ECM/GFS ensemble mean by 120

I was almost certain the Euro Ensemble mean would be NW of the GFS Ensemble mean. Now it looks like the GFS might be playing the card it loved to play in past seasons, with suppression in the midrange. Then again, recent trends suggest the Euro Ensemble may join the party and lock in a further SE/suppressed system as well. Boy, too many things to think about.

[weathergy]

I gave up on the GHD storm pretty early thinking I'd be mostly missed SE. That would be my early fear now.. It could also all come together perfect and get pissed on still. Potential is there for something really special though and that's all we can ask for..

First call would be for a Michigan special low end warning.

Don't jinx me please, lol, and most importantly, don't tease me. I have no expectations of snow from this storm. Although my area tends to get shafted by dry slots, and mixing issues. It's rare that we get all snow the whole entire storm.

[A-L-E-K]

I was almost certain the Euro Ensemble mean would be NW of the GFS Ensemble mean. Now it looks like the GFS might be playing the card it loved to play in past seasons, with suppression in the midrange. Then again, recent trends suggest the Euro Ensemble may join the party and lock in a further SE/suppressed system as well. Boy, too many things to think about.

They're far apart at 120 and it only gets worse (obviously) by 144. As long as we see the type of baroclinic zone advertised by the Euro, I'll be on board for a major event in the region regardless of how surface features are being handled run to run.

[wisconsinwx]

I gave up on the GHD storm pretty early thinking I'd be mostly missed SE. That would be my early fear now.. It could also all come together perfect and get pissed on still. Potential is there for something really special though and that's all we can ask for..

First call would be for a Michigan special low end warning.

Funny, I think MKX is trying to jinx us away from any major snows, my point featuring a 50 percent chance of snow with a high of 33 on Tuesday in the extended. When that's shown this far out, they're probably not calling for the suppressed piece of crap some of the GFS ensembles are showing.

[Stebo]

The teleconnections do not match the GFS solution on this one at all. I expect the stronger solution to come back around on the GFS possibly as soon as tonight.

[Hoosier]

They're far apart at 120 and it only gets worse (obviously) by 144. As long as we see the type of baroclinic zone advertised by the Euro, I'll be on board for a major event in the region regardless of how surface features are being handled run to run.

I think that tilts the odds in favor of something significant, possibly major. Big storm is not a guarantee (when is it?) if the waves evolve in an unfavorable way, but there is more potential with this one than there has been in a while imo. Another thing to watch as it gets closer will be the cold air dump into the Rockies/Plains. Models are known for having problems handling that.

[OHweather]

The key difference between the GFS and Euro ensembles at 96 hr appears to be in the Aleutians and Alaska:

Given the plunging AO over the coming days displacing the polar vortex well south into Canada which will force very cold air into the Northern Plains setting up a tight baroclinic zone from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes and high amplitude energy diving into the west this weekend and then ejecting out into this baroclinic zone...on top of no supressive NAO blocking...I'd favor a cutter into the lakes on Monday, despite what the individual model solutions may show. If the Pacific ridging ends up being significantly flatter than currently shown by the Euro suite this may decrease this threat...however we won't know how much ridging will develop there for another few model cycles.

The Euro ensembles have as the HPC mentioned been very consistent with this threat for about two days now.

[stormtrackertf]

DTX

Only DTX could even mention where a dry slot might be this far out.

[Jonger]

Disagree... Would much rather see a massive bomb west of us than a run-of-the-mill spread the wealth elongated low pressure area.

Most long range weak storms generally verify as underperforming, weak dendrite pavement wetters.

Jon

[weathergy]

I would probably follow the Euro's instinct. if it continues to show a more phased storm, but the GFS doesn't/eventually does, that is a good sign. If it jumps off but the GFS jumps on, that is probably a bad sign as well.

I agree with Stebo. Unless the teleconnections change to an unfavorable position for a storm, I'm not worried.

On the 12z GFS 500mb on hrs 144 to 159, how does that piece of energy just fizzle out like that? By the looks of the eastern ridging ahead of it, cyclogenesis should be occurring, but it's not. Doesn't make sense. Wonder if the 18z GFS will show this.

[michsnowfreak]

....unless it's to conclude snow and cold.

Personally, I'm not a warminista, but I'm gonna be real about what i see going on. I know all about indices and what they mean and where they're forecasted to go, but quite honestly whether indices or enso, the outcomes seem to be inconsistent to what we would normally expect. Right now we are in a pattern wrt the modelling where the long range looks better until it approaches and beomes the mid range and short range. I remember last week, I was going to make a post at how the long range gfs was reminding me of Dec. '89 because of the incredibly broad deep trough it had...almost coast to coast deep arctic air and cross polar flow, (this would have been for next week).

DT made a great point in his update yesterday or Sunday. He basically said everyone wants to embrace a fantasy longterm outbreak of severe winter weather, while ignoring the actual, and more impressive warmth we are currently experiencing.

As I type this, pouring rain and near 60...Dec4th...that use to be unusual and for some reason it almost seems normal now.

I don't think anyones ignoring the warmth they are either enjoying it or trying to deal with it lol. For the longrange its always been like that, people either freak out or orgasm out based on the extreme of the run, but its also a myth that the longrange always looks good til it gets to med range. A warm startvto dec has been advertised for quite some time now, the general consensus being after dec 10 for wintry weather. Speaking of being real id be interested in ur cmh climo guy showing some dec stats. It seems these days whenever u get a warm or snowless patter know someone quips this is the new norm, or it never used to happen etc etc. When In reality, said anomaly (in this case december 60s) is probably no more or less frequent now than it used to. At least thats what ive found at dtw

[hm8]

Most long range weak storms generally verify as underperforming, weak dendrite pavement wetters.

Jon

... Long Range weak storms verify as weak storms... Huh.

Good thing that's not what we're dealing with here.

hm8

[wisconsinwx]

... Long Range weak storms verify as weak storms... Huh.

Good thing that's not what we're dealing with here.

hm8

Some are weak, but you're right, most of the models show a strong storm in the next week or 8 days somewhere across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, or Ohio Valley.