Stebo Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I will come out and say this, what the GFS did on the 06z and 12z runs with this vort as it ejects out will not happen. It completely shears the vort out and there is absolutely no reason for it to be shearing out. To put it simple, the GFS is completely out to lunch with its last 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I will come out and say this, what the GFS did on the 06z and 12z runs with this vort as it ejects out will not happen. It completely shears the vort out and there is absolutely no reason for it to be shearing out. To put it simple, the GFS is completely out to lunch with its last 2 runs. Looks very weird to me too but who knows, long ways out. FWIW the ensembles were just as bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Looks very weird to me too but who knows, long ways out. FWIW the ensembles were just as bad They were bad at first but later on around 180 hours a couple of them indicated a nice GLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Did anyone look at the Euro Ensembles for 0z? Just wondering, I read on Accuweather that the mean was similar to the OP, but did most of them spin up a significant storm at least? per Harry from his board: euro ensembles has a couple of members about as far west as the OP run ( none further west ) while the rest are further e/se. NOT all are picking up on the second system either. A few as well totally cut off the energy in the sw.. Oh and number of them go gang busters with system 1 and are slower as well. Thus why i suspect the majority of them a further se or non existent with system 2. There is a few goodies though that track across Indiana into Ohio and even a couple that ride the apps with system 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Looks very weird to me too but who knows, long ways out. FWIW the ensembles were just as bad All slightly different flavors of the same crap sandwich will have that happen. If the Euro decides to take a nose dive then there might be a cause for concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I get the sense if the 12z Euro takes a turn for the worse...it'll get ugly in here. Real ugly. Still too early for that IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I get the sense if the 12z Euro takes a turn for the worse...it'll get ugly in here. Real ugly. Still too early for that IMO. Yes it is too early for it, one model suite several days out that takes a bad turn doesn't mean everyone jump off a bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I get the sense if the 12z Euro takes a turn for the worse...it'll get ugly in here. Real ugly. Still too early for that IMO. It's possible the subforum has been so beaten up that it will take more than a long range december threat to ingnite a meltdown...possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 more from the general board. That bottled up cold air is a big part of the winter storm forecast for next week in the Plains and Midwest. Without the supply of cold air, there isn't enough baroclinicity to spin up the shortwave over the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 more from the general board. The important thing for you guys is you want to see a big ridge out of over the Gulf of Alaska. That's teleconnected by the wave 1 stratosphere response we've been talking about that causes the torch in the East. When that happens, the cold pours down the Rockies and you set a baroclinic zone to start explosive cyclogenesis. The GFS is flatter with the Pac ridge, which is why its less robust than the Euro. I wouldn't get too worked about individual model solutions right now. The teleconnections suggest there is a much higher than normal chance of significant Plains/Midwest winter storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 The important thing for you guys is you want to see a big ridge out of over the Gulf of Alaska. That's teleconnected by the wave 1 stratosphere response we've been talking about that causes the torch in the East. When that happens, the cold pours down the Rockies and you set a baroclinic zone to start explosive cyclogenesis. The GFS is flatter with the Pac ridge, which is why its less robust than the Euro. I wouldn't get too worked about individual model solutions right now. The teleconnections suggest there is a much higher than normal chance of significant Plains/Midwest winter storm next week. Thanks for the input. Much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Pretty dramatic shift from 00z, but of course not out of the realm of possibilities. The synoptics are obviously there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Sounds like its following the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Its not like the 0z Euro but still produces like a 2-5" swath around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 more from the general board. This makes so much sense. So true... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Euro pretty good for S/E Mi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 It's a fine run but definitely a step towards the GFS...we'll see if we can get a flip back over the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Its not like the 0z Euro but still produces like a 2-5" it looks like around here. Not bad for our first possible snow this season! - and certainly better than last December! 982mb over Alpena in 168 hours. Nevermind that was the 0z map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Sounds like its following the GFS? It will change 30 times, but I would actually lock in the 12z GFS and especially EURO for our backyards if I could. Both models verbatum will give us a few inches of snow here (but no one would get a major snowstorm). FOR US that is better than a strong storm cutting west of us and burying folks in MO, IA, WI, MN and giving us a torchy rain and maybe some backside snow showers. In the end, and we all know it, for every member of the board, their backyards come first (and they should lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 It's a fine run but definitely a step towards the GFS...we'll see if we can get a flip back over the next day or two. Detroit special. Just to echo the sentiments of everyone else on this board, it's apparent that the synoptics are there for a major Midwest storm. We need to continue to watch how the two pieces of energy interact in the 120-144 hour period. This will let us know to what extent we'll have a phase, and subsequently how far east or west this thing will go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Does anyone have the Deterministic forecast for Detroit KDTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 4, 2012 Author Share Posted December 4, 2012 Euro pretty good for S/E Mi. No, it's still too early to be in the bullseye. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Not bad for our first possible snow this season! - and certainly better than last December! 982mb over Alpena in 168 hours. That's yesterdays 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 No, it's still too early to be in the bullseye. Lol LOL....I know I know...But i'm just saying it looks pretty good....now of course it will change 100X, therefore I'm just going to chill/relax/ and watch this evolve LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 It will change 30 times, but I would actually lock in the 12z GFS and especially EURO for our backyards if I could. Both models verbatum will give us a few inches of snow here (but no one would get a major snowstorm). FOR US that is better than a strong storm cutting west of us and burying folks in MO, IA, WI, MN and giving us a torchy rain and maybe some backside snow showers. In the end, and we all know it, for every member of the board, their backyards come first (and they should lol). Disagree... Would much rather see a massive bomb west of us than a run-of-the-mill spread the wealth elongated low pressure area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 It will change 30 times, but I would actually lock in the 12z GFS and especially EURO for our backyards if I could. Both models verbatum will give us a few inches of snow here (but no one would get a major snowstorm). FOR US that is better than a strong storm cutting west of us and burying folks in MO, IA, WI, MN and giving us a torchy rain and maybe some backside snow showers. In the end, and we all know it, for every member of the board, their backyards come first (and they should lol). I think its a huge deal that the EURO took a step in the GFS direction. Its teliing me that the intrusion of cold air is not as strong and deep as first thought even if were 7 days out. Not saying that were in the jackpot. Because My initial idea of the storm would take it to the upper Midwest Western Lakes area rather than up the Ohio Valley Eastern Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Disagree... Would much rather see a massive bomb west of us than a run-of-the-mill spread the wealth elongated low pressure area. Agreed. Depending on how weak the phase is, or just how weak the s/w is in general, we're not that far off from just a glorified cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Oh it's not too uncommon for the models to have a big storm in the long term, lose it in the medium range, then bring it back in the short term. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Oh it's not too uncommon for the models to have a big storm in the long term, lose it in the medium range, then bring it back in the short term. Time will tell. in the past, yes that was true. Lately though, it seems the trend is to blow up a storm in the 7-10 day range and than flatten it out as the time approaches.. This is what the euro is starting to do. My call is it turns out to be a glorified frontal wave. Btw, the 10 day euro 500 map looks like a nascar raceway across the pacific and thru Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Man some people really let last winter get to them and don't even forecast anymore. Don't even post if your posting calls based off a hunch or something in the past. Look at the pattern and setup and forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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