snowstormcanuck Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 hehe, ssc.. can always find one model to satisfy our desires. yeah hopefully and probably just a blip.. but in the back of my mind I can't help but to think the least desirable outcome will happen as has been the weather here mostly since the GHD blizz. that's just silly thinking though. I need to get back to bed for and hr or two.. stayed up way to late last night (3:00am) because of this sickness. I got woke up at 4:30 and jumped out of bed faster than I did as a kid on Christmas morning and went straight for my next model fix... Sick. Feel the same way. Nothing's gone my way since that phantom bomb back in Feb 2009. I got a hunch it's one of those 50 year curses so I'd probably do best to find a new hobby. But, like an idiot, I return each winter anyway. Happy dreaming. Feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Feel the same way. Nothing's gone my way since that phantom bomb back in Feb 2009. I got a hunch it's one of those 50 year curses so I'd probably do best to find a new hobby. But, like an idiot, I return each winter anyway. Happy dreaming. Feel better. Nonsense jan 1999 will happen this year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 6zGFS looks terrible, keeps the trough positive tilt as it crosses the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 6zGFS looks terrible, keeps the trough positive tilt as it crosses the country. An increasing number of the ensembles are doing the same...it's early and the timing details that can flip this back to a more phased/neg tilt event are still far from decided...and even the 6z GFS breaks our futility record. It does bring up memories of the countless med/long range threats that trended towards postivive tilt open waves last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 An increasing number of the ensembles are doing the same...it's early and the timing details that can flip this back to a more phased/neg tilt event are still far from decided...and even the 6z GFS breaks our futility record. It does bring up memories of the countless med/long range threats that trended towards postivive tilt open waves last season. Looks like the 180-192 hour storm is trending essay west. Yup, the pattern is collapsing again. The last 2 years there has to be some teleconnection setup that is preventing a nice classic trough to drop south. So now the pattern change is right back to 300+ hours.... We got within 150 hrs at one point. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Looks like the 180-192 hour storm is trending essay west. Yup, the pattern is collapsing again. The last 2 years there has to be some teleconnection setup that is preventing a nice classic trough to drop south. So now the pattern change is right back to 300+ hours.... We got within 150 hrs at one point. Jon We're having a hard time breaking through but it's way too early to say this is going to another crap wave with a thin stripe of light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Looks like the 180-192 hour storm is trending essay west. Yup, the pattern is collapsing again. The last 2 years there has to be some teleconnection setup that is preventing a nice classic trough to drop south. So now the pattern change is right back to 300+ hours.... We got within 150 hrs at one point. Jon I wouldnt say that the entire pattern is collapsing. Thats not really whats being displayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 HPC.... PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 827 AM EST TUE DEC 04 2012 VALID 12Z SAT DEC 08 2012 - 12Z TUE DEC 11 2012 PRELIMINARY UPDATE... RELIED ON THE 00Z/04 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY BY DAY 5, WITH EMPHASIS ON DIFFERENT SHORTWAVES ALONG THE POLAR FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE GUIDANCE DOES AGREE ON THE OVERALL FLOW, WITH A NEGATIVE PNA PATTERN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE 00Z/04 GEFS MEAN IS WELL CORRELATED WITH THE ECENS MEAN FROM THE SAME RUN, BUT HINTS AT MORE SPLIT IN THE FLOW NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES BY DAY 7. THE ECENS MEAN HAS BEEN STEADY FOR FOUR MODEL CYCLES NOW, AND HAS PROVEN TO BE A USEFUL GUIDE WHEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. THE MEAN TROUGH FROM THE WEST INTO THE PLAINS WILL SET THE STAGE THE FIRST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD ICE AND SNOW THIS SEASON IN THE LOWLANDS OF THE CORN BELT AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Where/What are the LOWLANDS OF THE CORN BELT? Is this in Middle Earth somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Where/What are the LOWLANDS OF THE CORN BELT? Is this in Middle Earth somewhere? assuming IA/MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 for reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 NAM showing an advisory level event across southern mn thrusday night. Chances of verification=next to none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 The ensembles still show a good seasonable to slightly colder than normal pattern starting saturday/sunday for the entire sub-forum... That storm is looking like a St. Louis special though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 The ensembles still show a good seasonable to slightly colder than normal pattern starting saturday/sunday for the entire sub-forum... That storm is looking like a St. Louis special though. The pattern looks December. LES porn on last nights ECMWF. NW flow after this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 There is strong model consensus for a major Plains/Midwest winter storm next week. The progs for the shortwave around D6 in the SW are pretty amazing. There will be a ton of baroclinic energy available for this thing to explosively deepen once it connects with the inflow off the Gulf of Mexico. B_I will be going nuts over the DMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 FRIDAY ON... THE MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES SCHC/LOW CHC POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA ON FRIDAY WHICH LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS. AS WAS MENTIONED YESTERDAY... THE FLOW PATTERN INDICATES UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE WEATHER WITH A TROF IN THE WESTERN CONUS. THE OVERALL ENERGY BUDGET OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS SUPPORTIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS. SUCH SYSTEMS WOULD BE NONLINEAR IN NATURE AND THE MODELS WOULD HAVE VERY POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ON THE DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION OF SAID SYSTEMS. WHEN ONE LOOKS AT THE SUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS THIS IS PLAYING OUT. THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS BUT ARE VARYING CONSIDERABLY FROM RUN TO RUN IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT. PART OF THIS IS THE NONLINEAR ASPECT BUT THE OTHER MAJOR PART HAS TO DO WITH THE RESPECTIVE PHYSICS OF EACH MODEL AND HOW MUCH PHASING EACH MODEL DOES OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OF ENERGY. From DVN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Riding some kind of 60/40 or 70/30 split of the Euro/GFS ensemble mean is probably the way to go for the time being. I'll be interested to see if the 12z means have any major shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 MKX's take on developing storm threat: SOUTHWEST 500MB FLOW LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION LIKE THE GFS. THE ECMWF BRINGS A STRENGTHENING LOW FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST TO FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS SUNDAY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. IT THEN BRINGS ANOTHER STRONGER LOW FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY...THEN TO FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCOMPANIES THE STRONG LOW. THIS SYSTEM...IF IT WORKS OUT...WOULD GIVE THE AREA A GOOD SHOT AT ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO USE CONSENSUS BLEND OF POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATTER SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OFF...AND THINGS MAY CHANGE. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Looks like the early 500mb vort is going to dig a good bit more on the 12z GFS than the 6z run..probably more like 0z given the amount of energy pouring down the back side of the trough, it makes sense that it could dig pretty deep into the southwest. This run should deliver good snows to someone in the region...probably similar to 0z some of these images look pretty classic for big plains/midwest storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 wasnt much of a "winter" side of the storm on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Looks like the 180-192 hour storm is trending essay west. Yup, the pattern is collapsing again. The last 2 years there has to be some teleconnection setup that is preventing a nice classic trough to drop south. So now the pattern change is right back to 300+ hours.... We got within 150 hrs at one point. Jon Actually as HM did say, the pattern DID change, in a big way. He just explained that people automatically think pattern change is an immediate switch to cold and snow, but its not. Regardless...pattern going forward still plenty favorable for us, lets see if it produces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Wheres the cold side? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Nice baroclinic zone FWIW. Even seeing light snow to cover the ground would make me excited at this point! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 12z GFS has that system in southern Canada that just sits and deflects anything...until the southern vort gets time to amplify, but it's just not going to tap any cold air. Very busy 500H vort map. It looks confused. Wouldn't jump off any bridges yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Nice baroclinic zone FWIW. Even seeing light snow to cover the ground would make me excited at this point! lol Yeah, you and I would both probably take the 1-2" that would result from being on the northwest side of the gradient Sunday night into Monday. At least it would stick around for a day or two due to the colder temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 FWIW...12z ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 At least the GGEM and EURO are close. GFS is out to lunch on this run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 At least the GGEM and EURO are close. GFS is out to lunch on this run! I wouldn't say that for sure, many of the recent GFS ensemble runs had several members that were a relative nonevent like 12z, just not worth overreacting to one run is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I wouldn't say that for sure, many of the recent GFS ensemble runs had several members that were a relative nonevent like 12z, just not worth overreacting to one run is all. Reading Alek's post above made me think this run would be spectacular for someone in the subforum. Yeah, no need to freak out over this one run! No jumping off bridges yet! haha Can't wait for this storm to get within 120 hours - then these flip flops will start dissapearing - hopefully! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Did anyone look at the Euro Ensembles for 0z? Just wondering, I read on Accuweather that the mean was similar to the OP, but did most of them spin up a significant storm at least? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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