HKY_WX Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I think that pinched off block is likely to setup sometime if we keep seeing this negative AO. It happened several times over the fall. I don't care at all about the pacific. If the AO really plunges into the -4 to -6 range, we're going to have cold weather over the CONUS. It will alter the pattern quickly and dramatically. Still thinking sometime around the 15-20th we'll see this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Quite the -NAO on the 0z GFS, will see if the ENS will have something close. No mega blocking, does this count as close? The 11-15 day individual members aren't bad, though...a few with the same outcome lined up, but then there's some with no blocking at all, screwin' up the ENS mean. 11-15 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Surprised no one commented on the Euro...it didn't look bad and it actually has some super cold air spilling into Canada at the end of it's run. That air eventually has to come south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Surprised no one commented on the Euro...it didn't look bad and it actually some super cold air spilling into Canada at the end of it's run. That air eventually has to come south. yep, note too the developing arctic HP in NW Canada that is poised to ooze south along the front range of the Rockies/upper midwest, which would probably bring us our first arctic blast of the season. Good signs for some cold to appear just before Christmas...hope it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Surprised no one commented on the Euro...it didn't look bad and it actually some super cold air spilling into Canada at the end of it's run. That air eventually has to come south. I agree, Eventually it will come south! Still think we will be pretty cold by Christmas... GFS looks like a suppressed pattern which should give us some wet weather at least and probably some cold rains.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Alright folks, the number of reports and bad posts in this thread are getting out of hand and it's going to stop. If you don't have anything valuable to say, like an opinion with no facts whatsoever, arguing, or it's more banter than anything (taking it off topic for example), take it to the thread we call the banter thread as for as off topic stuff. I know this is shocking advice but apparently some don't get it. I strongly urge you follow the posting etiquette thread made by QW. It's pinned so you can't miss it. If you don't like a post, report it , but do not start an argument or take this thread off topic. This post is a verbal warning to everyone. Those who do not comply will be warned and/or given timeouts the next time. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Thanks for you adding your thoughts to this thread! 'Pattern change' is really all about perspective for some folks. The upper air pattern over the North Hemisphere is going to undoubtedly change over the next 10 days. Just take Alaska for instance. There will be a change from a huge, persistent vortex to a substantial ridge. I have been talking about this change, as have a lot of other mets and forecasters, for a while. This change will flood the northern US with arctic air with time and set up a baroclinic zone with waves of precip moving along it...as well as a significant system or two. A period active with storm systems for the central and eastern US will be a big change as well. However, at least for a while, the Southeast will be on the warm side of this zone. But make no mistake about it, the pattern change is indeed occurring as scheduled...the ramifications for the Southeast might not be what snow fans want, at least over the next 10+ days. And another thing....the way people are talking, you would think we have been in this massive, blowtorch pattern for weeks and weeks on end. We just finished a very cool month of November. So it's not like we are stuck in endless warmth. Excellent post. I've been saying the same thing in the northeastern subforums. This is a pattern change and will be completed by this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Sure thing. Definitely a more active storm track ahead....lots of cold air in the northern US that will attempt to bleed south as time unfolds. Definitely a set up that could wind up with a CAD event somewhere in there that could produce something wintry....especially VA on northward. Thanks for you adding your thoughts to this thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 Sure thing. Definitely a more active storm track ahead....lots of cold air in the northern US that will attempt to bleed south as time unfolds. Definitely a set up that could wind up with a CAD event somewhere in there that could produce something wintry....especially VA on northward. We're certainly a lot closer to a winter pattern compared to last year. The super arctic air will be sitting in SW Canada waiting to move in once the PNA ridge returns.. -40C at 850 per the Euro just waiting to come down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 The 6Z GFS is a thing of beauty from about 192 on. Suppressed storm track, Arctic highs moving across the northern tier, nice -NAO/Greenland blocking, PV displaced to the south, etc. This would be an example of a wintry pattern for the SE. I would cash out with this run. Of course, the Euro isn't quite there yet, but as others have mentioned, it appears that we're moving in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Matthew East mentioning signs of cross polar flow today. http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 The 6Z GFS is a thing of beauty from about 192 on. Suppressed storm track, Arctic highs moving across the northern tier, nice -NAO/Greenland blocking, PV displaced to the south, etc. This would be an example of a wintry pattern for the SE. I would cash out with this run. Of course, the Euro isn't quite there yet, but as others have mentioned, it appears that we're moving in the right direction. Ensembles are looking a little better this morning as well. One thing I really like seeing on the GFS ensembles is the AO staying negative, and the NAO going moderately negative too. This is off the mean. Step down process. Looking for cold and snow when I really want it at Christmas. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Now this is our problem but seems to be improving a little. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Matthew East mentioning signs of cross polar flow today. http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/ Yes, and he is still on board with the pattern change. The entire weather pattern will be much different by next week, starting with a Monday cold front. Look for a much more active storm track with lots of cold air spilling into the portions of the Lower 48 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Sure thing. Definitely a more active storm track ahead....lots of cold air in the northern US that will attempt to bleed south as time unfolds. Definitely a set up that could wind up with a CAD event somewhere in there that could produce something wintry....especially VA on northward. Sorry, I didn't even see your posts here before I commented on your latest blog post. Glad to see you are still on board for the pattern change. Like you said, it might not mean big things for snow lovers here, but at least it is a big step in the right direction and we have something to look at with things getting more active. We wouldn't have a chance of anything if the pattern doesn't change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Meanwhile, Allan Huffman sounds depressed. He doesn't mention a pattern change at all in his blog post today. http://www.examiner.com/article/mild-december-weather-to-continue?CID=examiner_alerts_article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Meanwhile, Allan Huffman sounds depressed. He doesn't mention a pattern change at all in his blog post today. http://www.examiner...._alerts_article He has valid points with Pacific troughing. We need a +PNA in addition to the -NAO and -AO. The mention of cross polar flow down the road is obviously a good thing. We shall see what happens. We also need to build some snow cover in the northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 It seems we are on about the same page. I never said that a cold pattern was about to lock into the Eastern US. I just said the overall pattern is definitely changing, and it is. He has valid points with Pacific troughing. We need a +PNA in addition to the -NAO and -AO. The mention of cross polar flow down the road is obviously a good thing. We shall see what happens. We also need to build some snow cover in the northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 It seems we are on about the same page. I never said that a cold pattern was about to lock into the Eastern US. I just said the overall pattern is definitely changing, and it is. Well, I guess that is a step in the right direction. We need something to change to even give us a shot of seeing some winter weather around here. The players on the field do look better than last season, but it seems it won't matter if that Pacific trough is still too tough to overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 It seems we are on about the same page. I never said that a cold pattern was about to lock into the Eastern US. I just said the overall pattern is definitely changing, and it is. We need that major west based NAO block on the 0z GFS, which of course the GEFS and 6z GFS didn't have. It seems the GFS tries to model it but than loses it and it hasn't materializes yet. Though this doesn't look like last winter it's not off to a great start. I still think we will get some cold shots and thus some chances in January if we can get the AO/NAO to overpower the pacific, which is the big difference from last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 It looks like the next front around December 10-11 might produce some snow for the higher elevations of East TN, and maybe snow showers all the way into the valley. 12z GFS is showing something very similar. This front looks like it'll bring highs into the upper 30s for my neck of the woods - which is definitely colder than we've been so far this season. This is probably signifying a pattern change - as most long range forecasts have difficulty looking beyond a significant cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 The 6Z GFS is a thing of beauty from about 192 on. Suppressed storm track, Arctic highs moving across the northern tier, nice -NAO/Greenland blocking, PV displaced to the south, etc. This would be an example of a wintry pattern for the SE. I would cash out with this run. Of course, the Euro isn't quite there yet, but as others have mentioned, it appears that we're moving in the right direction. It's why I've been harping on gulf rain, and why I've been loving the long range the last few days! When the gulf starts to get storms, the cold won't be far off. Follow the rains....and it isn't just because I live in the Namib, lol. Any pattern change to the good will have to include wetter days, or it's just more disappointment. Assuaged by soothing bitter cold, but disappointing, none the less. If we can get this to verify, then Jan/Feb looks great as the cycle give us "rinse and repeat". . T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 12z GFS brings cold air pretty much across the entire US after around 300 hrs. It's a great look for winter weather lovers. From 336 to the end of the run temps for a lot of the SE stay at or below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 James Spann is on board for a pattern change next week http://www.alabamawx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Here are the 850 temps at the end of the GFS run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Most guidance agrees on a building Rex block over Scandinavia into the 6-10 day period. Also -NAO is forecast but east-based which is a Europe issue. Brief ridging toward Alaska promotes a Plains plunger cold front out there. Glancing cold front through the Mid South only brings temps to near normal. While a significant pattern change affects the USA, it offers little excitement for the Southeast. Plains looks to get into a colder regime under southwesterly 500mb flow downstream of a Rocky Mountain trough. Storm track ejects into the Ohio Valley, leaving the Southeast out of sustained cold. Anything in the southern stream coming out of Texas would be all rain. Then in the 11-15 day Alaska, Greenland and Scandinavia flatten out. Arctic heights fall and mild zonal flow returns. Merry (almost) Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 It's why I've been harping on gulf rain, and why I've been loving the long range the last few days! When the gulf starts to get storms, the cold won't be far off. Follow the rains....and it isn't just because I live in the Namib, lol. Any pattern change to the good will have to include wetter days, or it's just more disappointment. Assuaged by soothing bitter cold, but disappointing, none the less. If we can get this to verify, then Jan/Feb looks great as the cycle give us "rinse and repeat". . T The 12Z looks to continue advertise a wetter pattern. We definitely need the rain. Don't see any real winter threats showing up just yet, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Most guidance agrees on a building Rex block over Scandinavia into the 6-10 day period. Also -NAO is forecast but east-based which is a Europe issue. Brief ridging toward Alaska promotes a Plains plunger cold front out there. Glancing cold front through the Mid South only brings temps to near normal. While a significant pattern change affects the USA, it offers little excitement for the Southeast. Plains looks to get into a colder regime under southwesterly 500mb flow downstream of a Rocky Mountain trough. Storm track ejects into the Ohio Valley, leaving the Southeast out of sustained cold. Anything in the southern stream coming out of Texas would be all rain. Then in the 11-15 day Alaska, Greenland and Scandinavia flatten out. Arctic heights fall and mild zonal flow returns. Merry (almost) Christmas! and I thought joel was eeyore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 BTW, in the words of Cheez Euro was kinda "meh" no major artic air in central Canada as opposed to last night....typical cold in the west seasonal here look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Once i see the euroENS i think i may make a mid range discussion on my blog. Just waiting to see if it supports the gfsENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Unusual west to east oriented block east of Greenland at 240h on 12z Euro -- don't remember seeing something like that. Otherwise, it looks like our pattern is changing -- from a terrible one to just a boring one .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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