Poimen Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 One good thing to take note of on the 12z GFS is that it continues to seem to want to bring wet weather after day 7. Yes, and at this point I'm happy to receive any type of qpf. That wet frontal passage ~day 8 would be great IF it verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Well, let's hope the 12z GFS is correct with the rain for the southeast next week. It looks encouraging, and at least it's more of an active pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 4, 2012 Author Share Posted December 4, 2012 Yes, the wet wx would be nice here. Would be even better to get a split flow patter set up here if and when the PNA ever turns positive again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Punt December, but that has no bearing on the rest of winter. For the life of me I can't find the paper that discusses the three types of 500 mph flow for arctic outbreaks. However I know they are north, northwest and southwest. Yes, you read that right - southwest. Of course west won't work per the blowtorch. Believe the southwest version is coming, but not to the Southeast. Southwest 500 mph flow includes the main jet stream migrating south over the western US and allowing very cold air over Canada to dive south through the Plains. Depending on the position of the trough it may affect the inter-Mountain West. That cold air can only slowly ooze east of the storm track and in very shallow form. That storm track is Ohio Valley even in late December. While the Mid South may get glancing shots of cold, it won't last. And the Deep South can punt. Let your heart not be troubled though. We had several weeks of below normal temps from late October through November. Assuming this winter returns to some sort of normalcy, one can expect weather patterns to last from 4-6 weeks. We are in the warm phase of the cycle right now. Sometime in January it should flip cold. If -AO accompanies like in Novie, January could be interesting. If we get a +AO then chalk it up to living in the South. One might have to travel, but not too far. Either way in January as troughs return east of the Mississippi River, look for at least some upslope in the NC Highcountry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Punt December, but that has no bearing on the rest of winter. For the life of me I can't find the paper that discusses the three types of 500 mph flow for arctic outbreaks. However I know they are north, northwest and southwest. Yes, you read that right - southwest. Of course west won't work per the blowtorch. Believe the southwest version is coming, but not to the Southeast. Southwest 500 mph flow includes the main jet stream migrating south over the western US and allowing very cold air over Canada to dive south through the Plains. Depending on the position of the trough it may affect the inter-Mountain West. That cold air can only slowly ooze east of the storm track and in very shallow form. That storm track is Ohio Valley even in late December. While the Mid South may get glancing shots of cold, it won't last. And the Deep South can punt. Let your heart not be troubled though. We had several weeks of below normal temps from late October through November. Assuming this winter returns to some sort of normalcy, one can expect weather patterns to last from 4-6 weeks. We are in the warm phase of the cycle right now. Sometime in January it should flip cold. If -AO accompanies like in Novie, January could be interesting. If we get a +AO then chalk it up to living in the South. One might have to travel, but not too far. Either way in January as troughs return east of the Mississippi River, look for at least some upslope in the NC Highcountry. Best post of the day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 If you go strictly by MOS temps, Charlotte's monthly average temperature will be at 56.54 by December 11th. That's nearly 2 full degrees warmer than the warmest previous December. Hope MOs accounts for it not getting out of mid 40's Thursday. But fact is departure will be hard to neutralize or take negative for DEC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Meanwhile, Matthew East still sounds positive about a pattern change coming later this month. http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/2012/12/another-warm-one-today-cold-front.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Euro at hr240 - wow, it doesn't get much uglier than this in the high latitudes. Strong negative anomalies in the areas where you want to see strong positive anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Euro at hr240 - wow, it doesn't get much uglier than this in the high latitudes. Strong negative anomalies in the areas where you want to see strong positive anomalies. Here's a 500mb composite of the Top 10 Coldest January's for Charlotte (since 1948). You can see this is almost exactly opposite of today's hr240 Euro across the high latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Euro at hr240 - wow, it doesn't get much uglier than this in the high latitudes. Strong cold anomalies in the areas where you want to see strong warm anomalies. Well on a positive note the GFS ended with an west based negative NAO according to Wes...haven't looked at it yet myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Well on a positive note the GFS ended with an west based negative NAO according to Wes...haven't looked at it yet myself. it did, but it also ended with a EPAC/W coast trough. But alas...it is the 16 day so give it time, it will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Here's a 500mb composite of the Top 10 Coldest January's for Charlotte (since 1948). You can see this is almost exactly opposite of today's hr240 Euro across the high latitudes. Have you done the reanalysis for the preceding December? I don't take the Euro as bad news...I sincerely doubt that this is the pattern for the entire winter and that only goes through Dec 14...So, if it lets go around Christmas or New Years, there is still plenty of time for some winter. Lets save the cliff diving until then. I feel as though I am being backed into a cold forecast corner by the negative wave of lemmings on here (and I am on the slightly above side tho nothing like last year). It would be nice for some to do their own analysis and learn rather than just repeat stuff...that is what is truly annoying. We are here for weather forecast discussion (in this thread). So the "I heards" and "Everyone says" added with statements of doom are frustrating to the point of not wanting to post anymore. Having said all that and getting back on track, I still believe that this winter is likely to have some serious swings...we have been seeing those for quite a few months...Anyone remember all time record highs in late June....yet the summer was only near normal on the whole. Suprised no one has said anything about an in situ CAD event on the Day 10 Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Its always tough to predict seasons, thats why I find myself not trying to do so. I don't think we are at the cliff and jumping off YET! but, we do have our marching papers....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Have you done the reanalysis for the preceding December? I don't take the Euro as bad news...I sincerely doubt that this is the pattern for the entire winter and that only goes through Dec 14...So, if it lets go around Christmas or New Years, there is still plenty of time for some winter. Lets save the cliff diving until then. I feel as though I am being backed into a cold forecast corner by the negative wave of lemmings on here (and I am on the slightly above side tho nothing like last year). It would be nice for some to do their own analysis and learn rather than just repeat stuff...that is what is truly annoying. We are here for weather forecast discussion (in this thread). So the "I heards" and "Everyone says" added with statements of doom are frustrating to the point of not wanting to post anymore. Having said all that and getting back on track, I still believe that this winter is likely to have some serious swings...we have been seeing those for quite a few months...Anyone remember all time record highs in late June....yet the summer was only near normal on the whole. Suprised no one has said anything about an in situ CAD event on the Day 10 Euro... You know, I was thinking that little critter at the end of the Euro run looked interesting. It's at least worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I think we will have more CAD events to worry about than normal. IMO its going to be the year of the wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I think we will have more CAD events to worry about than normal. IMO its going to be the year of the wedge. For those wanting to learn about CAD events check out this PDF. Lots of good stuff here. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/hq/ssd/erps/tem/tem4.pdf As for insitu CAD it says this "Hybrid" events possess features which are typically weaker than those of "classical" CAD, and diabatic processes such as evaporative cooling from precipitation or reduced solar radiation from clouds can tip the scales toward a damming event. During "in situ" damming cases, evaporative cooling due to precipitation leads to low-level cold air advection from a parent high not in a favorable damming location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Lol. What happened to the pattern change around the 10th or the event around Dec 13-17 some were mentioning. Very warm here after the 6th coldest November on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Have you done the reanalysis for the preceding December? I don't take the Euro as bad news...I sincerely doubt that this is the pattern for the entire winter and that only goes through Dec 14...So, if it lets go around Christmas or New Years, there is still plenty of time for some winter. Lets save the cliff diving until then. I feel as though I am being backed into a cold forecast corner by the negative wave of lemmings on here (and I am on the slightly above side tho nothing like last year). It would be nice for some to do their own analysis and learn rather than just repeat stuff...that is what is truly annoying. We are here for weather forecast discussion (in this thread). So the "I heards" and "Everyone says" added with statements of doom are frustrating to the point of not wanting to post anymore. Oh I wasn't trying to draw any conclusions about what the day 10 Euro meant for later in Dec or Jan. I had recently pulled that top 10 cold composite for Jan, and it struck me that the day 10 Euro was showing opposite anomalies in the key areas. Who knows if the day 10 Euro will verify for day 10 or any other period...but I know this much, it's NOT a look you want to see if you want a good wintry pattern in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Oh I wasn't trying to draw any conclusions about what the day 10 Euro meant for later in Dec or Jan. I had recently pulled that top 10 cold composite for Jan, and it struck me that the day 10 Euro was showing opposite anomalies in the key areas. Who knows if the day 10 Euro will verify for day 10 or any other period...but I know this much, it's NOT a look you want to see if you want a good wintry pattern in the southeast. Of course...I was just curious if you had looked at the individual Dec's preceding...would be interesting to see if there were significant flips... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Have you done the reanalysis for the preceding December? I don't take the Euro as bad news...I sincerely doubt that this is the pattern for the entire winter and that only goes through Dec 14...So, if it lets go around Christmas or New Years, there is still plenty of time for some winter. Lets save the cliff diving until then. I feel as though I am being backed into a cold forecast corner by the negative wave of lemmings on here (and I am on the slightly above side tho nothing like last year). It would be nice for some to do their own analysis and learn rather than just repeat stuff...that is what is truly annoying. We are here for weather forecast discussion (in this thread). So the "I heards" and "Everyone says" added with statements of doom are frustrating to the point of not wanting to post anymore. Having said all that and getting back on track, I still believe that this winter is likely to have some serious swings...we have been seeing those for quite a few months...Anyone remember all time record highs in late June....yet the summer was only near normal on the whole. Suprised no one has said anything about an in situ CAD event on the Day 10 Euro... . For what it's worth I've posted a couple of times about how I felt 12/13 - 12/17 would yield potential for cad areas to see mix/ice event. Not gonna rehash the reasons why, but point is on two separate occasions gfs spit out overrunning cad event affecting us in nc around this time frame. With all the cold along us border it should be easier than most think to get hp in place in ne to wedge sneaky shallow cold down the east side of apps and get some overrunning from some split flow. I'd keep an eye on this time frame. I think we will see several of these events the first half of winter. Way more so than snow events/potential with the pattern we are evolving into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Tom Niziol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 'Pattern change' is really all about perspective for some folks. The upper air pattern over the North Hemisphere is going to undoubtedly change over the next 10 days. Just take Alaska for instance. There will be a change from a huge, persistent vortex to a substantial ridge. I have been talking about this change, as have a lot of other mets and forecasters, for a while. This change will flood the northern US with arctic air with time and set up a baroclinic zone with waves of precip moving along it...as well as a significant system or two. A period active with storm systems for the central and eastern US will be a big change as well. However, at least for a while, the Southeast will be on the warm side of this zone. But make no mistake about it, the pattern change is indeed occurring as scheduled...the ramifications for the Southeast might not be what snow fans want, at least over the next 10+ days. And another thing....the way people are talking, you would think we have been in this massive, blowtorch pattern for weeks and weeks on end. We just finished a very cool month of November. So it's not like we are stuck in endless warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 'Pattern change' is really all about perspective for some folks. The upper air pattern over the North Hemisphere is going to undoubtedly change over the next 10 days. Just take Alaska for instance. There will be a change from a huge, persistent vortex to a substantial ridge. I have been talking about this change, as have a lot of other mets and forecasters, for a while. This change will flood the northern US with arctic air with time and set up a baroclinic zone with waves of precip moving along it...as well as a significant system or two. A period active with storm systems for the central and eastern US will be a big change as well. However, at least for a while, the Southeast will be on the warm side of this zone. But make no mistake about it, the pattern change is indeed occurring as scheduled...the ramifications for the Southeast might not be what snow fans want, at least over the next 10+ days. And another thing....the way people are talking, you would think we have been in this massive, blowtorch pattern for weeks and weeks on end. We just finished a very cool month of November. So it's not like we are stuck in endless warmth. Excellent post. I've been saying the same thing in the northeastern subforums. This is a pattern change and will be completed by this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Of course...I was just curious if you had looked at the individual Dec's preceding...would be interesting to see if there were significant flips... Gotcha For the preceeding Dec's... Dec 1984 temps were very warm Dec 1987 temps were warm Dec 1947, 1965, 1977, 1978, 1980 temps were near avg Dec 1969, 1976, 1981 temps were cold Here's the Jan composite from the original post - Top 10 coldest Jan in Charlotte (since 1948) The biggest pattern flips from Dec to Jan occurred in 65-66 and 84-85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Jan 66 - that's one of the best looking wintry patterns ever for the SE...strong El Nino with major blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Gotcha For the preceeding Dec's... Dec 1984 temps were very warm As one who works at a major utility, I would not want to see another Jan 85.... Thanks for posting all that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 As one who works at a major utility, I would not want to see another Jan 85.... Thanks for posting all that! I second this about gathering all the info. Great job and Mr Bob nice post earlier also. Still very early to going off the hinges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 GFS 00z has mega blocking over Davis Strait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Quite the -NAO on the 0z GFS, will see if the ENS will have something close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 GFS 00z has mega blocking over Davis Strait. HAH, just beat me...it's crazy strong, that's what we would need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.