Wow Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Are we sooo storm shy that after 52 pages of discussion we still haven't started a new thread? Just asking...somehow a new topic thread makes things seem real and probable. We'll let Cold Rain do the honors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Gusts to 111mph Forecasted for Grandfather Mountain: ..THE FORECAST FOR GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN NC AT 5946 FT.. . ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY. .. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT... .REST OF TONIGHT...CLOUDY. RAIN UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SNOW LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS. WEST WINDS 40 TO 45 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 77 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT. .FRIDAY...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS. WEST WINDS 45 TO 50 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 87 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. .FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS. NORTHWEST WINDS 60 TO 65 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 104 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 60 TO 65 MPH...DECREASING TO 55 TO 60 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 111 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOWER TEENS IN THE MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 We'll let Cold Rain do the honors As long as he is feeling the mojo. He's been watching Christmas Vacation so he should be feeling pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 We'll let Cold Rain do the honors I second the notion! He gave us the mojo for the 2010 storm I feel like he can give us a repeat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 ok Cold, do it for all the snow lovers in the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I just checked the Euro - it's very nice for Middle TN and northern MS and AL, and then takes the storm through KY and OH for the main deformation band. It's setting up 6-12" in a band from middle TN through southern OH. The band on the Euro is awfully narrow though (only 150 miles) so any change in the track could really change who gets hammered and who doesn't. I'm kind of thinking that we ought to weigh models at certain ranges the way Nate Silver weighed polls for certain areas. The Euro has very strong weight at this timeframe, and the GFS not so much. The GFS ensembles have more weight (and you could give a little weight to each ensemble member). The GFS is going to have trouble with this until Saturday I'm thinking, and maybe until Sunday or Monday. Then we could give the GFS more weight. If we look at possible tracks of the Low based on the Euro, we get a much narrower swath than if we looked at the GFS ensemble members or from run to run. As of this time, I think anyone from north MS to AL and GA, NC, (possibly upstate SC) and all of TN should be watching this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Ok...gimme a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Also, WATE in Knoxville is forecasting light accumulation tonight even in the valley. I think this is overdone but who knows what I'll wake up to. There's a nice slug of moisture over IN and KY pinwheeling around right now. EDIT: MRX just bumped us up to 50% chance of snow showers tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'm not sure if Cold Rain wants his name on this one. Looking at the 18z GFS Ensemble members, you can see that the OP was an outlier with respect to the snow being that far southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'm not sure if Cold Rain wants his name on this one. Looking at the 18z GFS Ensemble members, you can see that the OP was an outlier with respect to the snow being that far southeast. Agreed. Some of the members were absolutely ridiculous in the long range... However, closer to home: http://raleighwx.ame...8zsnowf162.html A lot of them have a track similar to the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Also, WATE in Knoxville is forecasting light accumulation tonight even in the valley. I think this is overdone but who knows what I'll wake up to. There's a nice slug of moisture over IN and KY pinwheeling around right now. It looks like it primarily has a west to east trajectory so I am guessing the deeper moisture stays north for the most part, with the exception of the higher elevation west facing slopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'm not sure if Cold Rain wants his name on this one. Looking at the 18z GFS Ensemble members, you can see that the OP was an outlier with respect to the snow being that far southeast. It would be rather shocking if 0z wasn't NW of 18z, maybe not as much as Euro but several 18z members were that far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It would be rather shocking if 0z wasn't NW of 18z, maybe not as much as Euro but several 18z members were that far west. I agree, but at the same time, I'm surprised it's made it this far. I think beanskip is right that the upper wave closed off just at the right time (late)...there was a vort max digging into the back of the trough that seemed to delay it's closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I can't remember the last time we had anything significant around the first of January so maybe we are overdue. Thanks for the info! Here is one of my favorites. It was a good one in Altlanta, though I don't remember the totals. Mid Town got a bunch, and it froze down. I've seen zrain/ip/sn on the ground New Years eve 3 times I can remember, and I might be running two together, but I don't think so. I think the two lesser events were just a few years apart, and maybe all where in the 60's...but Larry will know. But 63 was the best one in Atl. Tony Doh!! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Year%27s_Eve_1963_snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I have to say, today's 12z Euro is the first run I've seen in weeks that looks favorable. We may yet have a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 New thread is up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Here is one of my favorites. It was a good one in Altlanta, though I don't remember the totals. Mid Town got a bunch, and it froze down. I've seen zrain/ip/sn on the ground New Years eve 3 times I can remember, and I might be running two together, but I don't think so. I think the two lesser events were just a few years apart, and maybe all where in the 60's...but Larry will know. But 63 was the best one in Atl. Tony Doh!! http://en.wikipedia...._1963_snowstorm Tony, The airport got 2.2" S/IP from 1.50" of liquid (wow, very wet storm!), mostly on 12/31. I think that the city may have gotten 3" or maybe even a little more. About what % of this was ZR? IP? S? Any plain rain? Others per airport data: - 12/31/1961: 1" of snow from .15" liquid; high of 40 and low of 30 -1/1/60: trace of S/IP from 0.16" liquid; high of 37 and low of 33 Are those the two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Woah, it's awesome to be back on a weather forum for the first time in years! Also, the familiar faces are awesome too. Glad I found the SE Crew just before the end of the world! Hope everyone is having a great holiday season. I don't really have much to add to the disco, I just wanted to say hello to everyone! I'll be around. The wind is starting to pick up from this front, that's for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Tony, The airport got 2.2" S/IP from 1.50" of liquid (wow, very wet storm!), mostly on 12/31. I think that the city may have gotten 3" or maybe even a little more. About what % of this was ZR? IP? S? Any plain rain? Others per airport data: - 12/31/1961: 1" of snow from .15" liquid; high of 40 and low of 30 -1/1/60: trace of S/IP from 0.16" liquid; high of 37 and low of 33 Are those the two? Sorry, Larry, I only just found this. The good one was all sleet and snow, as I remember it. And it froze down after, and it was 3 to 3 1/2 around Highland and Va. in midtown. A lot of sleet...another favorite for that reason, but there was some snow. I can't picture it falling, but remember being out in it after if froze down...walking up to the Highland Theater one night, as we couldn't go driving (parents cars) And it was sleet crunchy, not frozen snow/break though the crust, crunchy. Don't remember any zrain, or rain, and I always hate it when rain crashes the show, though I understand now how close to rain and zrain I have to be to get my beloved sleet. There usually is some zrain mixing in, but it wouldn't have been much. It was a good fall, as no one was out driving when we walked to the theater. I would have been 16, and going out in the car would have been more important than sleet and snow...I know, I know, the ignorance of youth, lol. Even today, I regret not having enjoyed it more....but who knew it would be so hard to get a repeat, when you are 16. Not sure about the others, but I know I've always thought around New Years was a propitious time for something frozen after the 60's. Don't have much memory of the other times, and it was just some snow on the sides of the roads kind of thing in my memory, so it would have fallen a day or two before. And probably after 63, and not as good as the good one, lol. Thinking about it, 1.5 would have been around 3 or 4 inches of sleet, so it could have been mostly sleet, I guess, but the way I see it in my minds eye, it wasn't a pure sleet storm, and it wasn't as deep as the late 70's sweet, big sleet, but close. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.