metalicwx366 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Wow congrats NC! And its not in fantasy land. Will be interesting if the 00z GFS still shows that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 interestingly the gfs ensemble mean has looked similar to this for a few days. a weaker more suppressed solution. the -AO has done some dirty work finally. Isn't the ensemble mean always weaker? or is that not what you mean by that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 122 user(s) are reading this topic......haha wake up the sleeping. The 00Z run oughta be fun tonight. Seems like the models have really been struggling with a solution. Would like to see some sort of consistency before putting chips in the pot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 the 18z run is worthless argument has been disproven. Over and over again.... there is a huge post by a met in the met 101 forum that explains this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Isn't the ensemble mean always weaker? or is that not what you mean by that? Not always no. Often times the operational will trend towards the ensemble mean. Especially as you get closer to a storm. I've always though ensemble forecasting is better to look at when you're in the day 5-7 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 SV maps just crush RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 To clarify SV map has up to a foot in RDU...AccuPro map (10:1 ratio) has almost all of NC in around 4 - 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 The 18z GFS solution has been in my mind the past day or so when the models began trending this system weaker and pulling sort of a weaker versin of march '09 with the lack of a HP over the NE but the secondary low reforms so far south that it allows the 850 temps to crash east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 apps runner.Early miller b, or slider? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 apps runner.Early miller b, or slider? Yep, hits the apps, transfers to Hatteras, most realistic solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Man, it sure is nice to at least see one model run show some snow. But I think we all know deep down that there is no way the 18z GFS is going to pull a coup on this storm over consistent runs of the Euro. BUT .. a glimmer of hope is better than no hope at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yep, hits the apps, transfers to Hatteras, most realistic solution. Just curious, why is the 18z unrealistic in your opinion, especially given the trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Would love to hear your thoughts Matt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Man, it sure is nice to at least see one model run show some snow. But I think we all know deep down that there is no way the 18z GFS is going to pull a coup on this storm over consistent runs of the Euro. BUT .. a glimmer of hope is better than no hope at all! If the Euro continues the south and east trend tonight, then we might have a viable solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Man, it sure is nice to at least see one model run show some snow. But I think we all know deep down that there is no way the 18z GFS is going to pull a coup on this storm over consistent runs of the Euro. BUT .. a glimmer of hope is better than no hope at all! Given how the models have flipped and trended either one has about equal weight of being correct. We'll see tonight if the 18z was on crack but it seems just as realistic to me...then again I'm a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Just curious, why is the 18z unrealistic in your opinion, especially given the trends? CMC, Euro ENS, GFS ENS, JMA all show cutting inland and transfer to the coast, only question is how far south can it dig and than how far north it gets before transfer. Now, maybe GFS is going to the nail this storm and this Op run leads the way...not likely though, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 There has been more than one ensemble members showing such a solution for numerous runs. It is definitely not out of the question. Was going to mention that the 18z op is extremely similar to some of the individual ensemble members some folks have posted earlier. Over and over again.... there is a huge post by a met in the met 101 forum that explains this. Yes, the old mentality of the 18z GFS being automatically garbage is not correct. In fact, as for me personally, I don't discard the 6z and 18z like some do. A little less accurate? At times. Useless? Absolutely not. Man, it sure is nice to at least see one model run show some snow. But I think we all know deep down that there is no way the 18z GFS is going to pull a coup on this storm over consistent runs of the Euro. BUT .. a glimmer of hope is better than no hope at all! 18z GFS solution is certainly not likely, but no one solution is likely at this point. All of the models, including the Euro, have struggled mightily in this chaotic pattern. Do I expect this solution to happen? No. Is it within the realm is possibility? Yes. It's all about the timing and phasing of various disturbances. The 12z wasn't far away from coming up with a solution like this. As the energy rounds the base of that trough and turns more negative tilt, the upper low closes off. I touched on this in my video this morning. Nailing down the precise timing and location of that 5-7 days out? Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 CMC, Euro ENS, GFS ENS, JMA all show cutting inland and transfer to the coast, only question is how far south can it dig and than how far north it gets before transfer. Now, maybe GFS is going to the nail this storm and this Op run leads the way...not likely though, IMO. I would agree except just two days ago GFS and Euro had the low going to Chicago and the Lakes area...now here are slowly but surely moving south and east with it. Just look at the solution from the Euro today. Guess we shall see the closer we get to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 CMC, Euro ENS, GFS ENS, JMA all show cutting inland and transfer to the coast, only question is how far south can it dig and than how far north it gets before transfer. Now, maybe GFS is going to the nail this storm and this Op run leads the way...not likely though, IMO. I agree and like the discussion you bring here. IMO, the last GFS run was not a trend. It was on the opposite end of the spectrum from other models...and we all want it to be right. Not likely to happen...but its a solution to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yes, the old mentality of the 18z GFS being automatically garbage is not correct. In fact, as for me personally, I don't discard the 6z and 18z like some do. A little less accurate? At times. Useless? Absolutely not. Agree 100% if they are useless why even run them? Why do we always look at them? But I'm not getting excited about this run until we see another run or other models jump on board with this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I agree and like the discussion you bring here. IMO, the last GFS run was not a trend. It was on the opposite end of the spectrum from other models...and we all want it to be right. Not likely to happen...but its a solution to watch. In a sense though it is a trend if you look at what the 12z did compared to what it was showing just a day ago...also look at the 6z .Not saying it will happen but as Matt said above every solution is on the table and credible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Huge differences in how the PV is handled between 12z and 18z GFS runs. I've never discounted the Miller A solution but I've never discounted the Miller B either. I think until we see how this system that turns into the PV is going to shape up we aren't going to know how far south this thing is going to go. If our surface low slides south of the CAD wedge, there isn't going to be a secondary low, which is what happened on this run. A very interesting set of 00z runs await us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 We all know and have experienced storms that were progged to do something great for us 6-7 days out have trended a complete 180 in that timeframe. I throughly believe eventually we will get those trends in our favor for once. Yes that's not scientific but we are still far enough out that a completely different solution than we haven't seen could easily happen. 18z is likely the extreme south and east solution given none of the ensemble members from previous runs has anything quite that far east. Keep your hopes up fellow southerners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Looking at the individual ensemble members through 180 for the12z gfs run. It looks like 7 of the 10 members give The northern and especially north western part of the state accumulating snowfall. Some of those 7 have it farther south into NC as well. 18z individual members aren't available yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I would agree except just two days ago GFS and Euro had the low going to Chicago and the Lakes area...now here are slowly but surely moving south and east with it. Just look at the solution from the Euro today. Guess we shall see the closer we get to it. You have a good point, I think we can rule out the lakes cutter now. The good thing is we are still over 6 days away, and I would expect more changes, hopefully for the better :-)....although its hard to beat the 18z GFS for most of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Long ways to go, but if i HAD to make a choice...I'd say a piece of energy goes west of the Apps and transfers to the coast somewhere along the Virginia/NC border on the coast. I would say rain in the TN Valley of E TN, mtn snow, Piedmont mix to rain, and a big storm just west of the I-95 corridor and sliding of the coast before NYC gets too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 PNA @ CPC forecast to go weakly positive. Merry Christmas from that big patch of water between Hawaii and California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Long ways to go, but if i HAD to make a choice...I'd say a piece of energy goes west of the Apps and transfers to the coast somewhere along the Virginia/NC border on the coast. I would say rain in the TN Valley of E TN, mtn snow, Piedmont mix to rain, and a big storm just west of the I-95 corridor and sliding of the coast before NYC gets too much. Like the majority of the 18z GFS ensemble members ...there were a few that were similar to the Op, but predominately miller b's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Are we sooo storm shy that after 52 pages of discussion we still haven't started a new thread? Just asking...somehow a new topic thread makes things seem real and probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.