rduwx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 What a strange run so far. At first it looks like a miller A but then it looks like it's going to reform off of OBX. Now it's going back to a miller A type system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 153 heavy snow for CLT west!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 156 RDU looks to get in on the heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It is and sweet baby jesus NC folks are going to wish for hour 150 to come true. All I can say for hr 156 is "I wish". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 @150, low off coast of Wilmington, NC....mountains cash in on some of that white stuff this run most likely. Oh no! What a weenie run, to bad it's all alone and this is a known GFS bias, I think you average the Euro/GFS at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 156 RDU looks to get in on the heavy snow. Looks like it starts snowing in the mtns and foothills at 147 WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 What about west into miss ala and tenn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 156 RDU looks to get in on the heavy snow. It's gonna be close. It sure didn't stick around too long after 156, by 160 it's dry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z run had strong 850 closed low over southern Ky. -- at same timefram, the 18z run as the closed low (weaker) over Columbia S.C.!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It's gonna be close. It sure didn't stick around too long after 156, by 160 it's dry! Verbatim though that would probably easily lay down 4 - 8 inches across much of NC....snow maps should be fun to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z run had strong 850 closed low over southern Ky. -- at same timefram, the 18z run as the closed low (weaker) over Columbia S.C.!! That would put us right in the money spot...doubt it will happen but we can dream can't we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Hour 150 just has quite the heavy snow over WNC. The low takes a much further south track. Unlike the Euro or 12Z GFS. While confidence may not be high in this scenario unfolding, at least it's now modeled as a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Prudent thing to do is watch the primary model runs..... Goalposts all the sudden are the 18z GFS on the south and east side and the Euro/cmc on the west. Interesting system shaping up guys and gals.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Verbatim though that would probably easily lay down 4 - 8 inches across much of NC....snow maps should be fun to see. Looks like you're right...look at that gradient in Central NC! Great win for NC, now if it can just shift a little more east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Can't count how many times I've discounted the 18z run when it showed something bad -- really no reason to latch on to it when it shows something good -- especially since it is virtually on an island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Can't count how many times I've discounted the 18z run when it showed something bad -- really no reason to latch on to it when it shows something good -- especially since it is virtually on an island. Agreed, I still think this will cut inland transfer to the coast, my guess is hits the NC mtns and reforms off Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Can't count how many times I've discounted the 18z run when it showed something bad -- really no reason to latch on to it when it shows something good -- especially since it is virtually on an island. the 18z run is worthless argument has been disproven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 yowsa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 at least we can put to rest the slp track from new orleans to chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Theres our new years storm in the gulf at 276 EDIT: goes up the apps though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 at least we can put to rest the slp track from new orleans to chicago. Bingo, we have a winner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 interestingly the gfs ensemble mean has looked similar to this for a few days. a weaker more suppressed solution. the -AO has done some dirty work finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 interestingly the gfs ensemble mean has looked similar to this for a few days. a weaker more suppressed solution. the -AO has done some dirty work finally. Yeah the 12z ensemble looked good for WNC and into TN. But the one thing I've noticed the last few days the 18z run for some reason is usually farther east than any other run of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Rain or snow...this is a big storm system with good amounts of precip affecting holiday travel/events. Probably time to make a thread for it. That way we can look beyond this single storm system here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 at least we can put to rest the slp track from new orleans to chicago. As crazy as this might seem, there is a possibility that we have not yet seen the most east and south solution. As much as the shifts have been in the recent runs, I don't think the trend is finished. However, beware of the northwest trend just before verification time. We have seen it too many times. You don't want to be in the sweet spot this far out. In my opinion, just north of the jack-pot area is a better location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buncombe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 There has been more than one ensemble members showing such a solution for numerous runs. It is definitely not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 As crazy as this might seem, there is a possibility that we have not yet seen the most east and south solution. As much as the shifts have been in the recent runs, I don't think the trend is finished. However, beware of the northwest trend just before verification time. We have seen it too many times. You don't want to be in the sweet spot this far out. In my opinion, just north of the jac- pot area is a better location. I agree. And more often that not, we do not experience two wet storm systems back to back. We are enduing one now. Anyway, that is just how it seems to go..for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Anxious to see the ensembles on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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