griteater Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Thanks, Jon! For some reason I've never been able to get Raleigh's loops to run for me. Probably Java related. Guess, I'll stick with what I've got, since the good stuff never comes until way out in the "it won't happen as depicted" range, lol. I like that the Gfs long range is now showing some fun storms. So unlike last year. I predicted zrain the first week, or so, of Jan. in the guess the storm thread, so I'm not out of the running yet, Don't much think it will be before Xmas down here, from the last few days runs. Tony Just search google and update java, that should work. Sometimes my java gets inabled on Firefox because Firefox detects a vulnerability. So maybe you just have to enable Javascript on your browser...who knows! But Allan's maps are the best, in my opinion. I have storm vista but only use it for the Euro mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 This looks like a good storm for you TN folks if the Euro plays out like it did on this run. SE TN River Valley is screw zone in this type of situation....no biggie, though, plenty of winter to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Thanks, Jon! For some reason I've never been able to get Raleigh's loops to run for me. Probably Java related. Guess, I'll stick with what I've got, since the good stuff never comes until way out in the "it won't happen as depicted" range, lol. I like that the Gfs long range is now showing some fun storms. So unlike last year. I predicted zrain the first week, or so, of Jan. in the guess the storm thread, so I'm not out of the running yet, Don't much think it will be before Xmas down here, from the last few days runs. Tony Use the beta model site... we have loops of Allan's maps that do not run on Java http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/page/models/home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 SE TN River Valley is screw zone in this type of situation....no biggie, though, plenty of winter to go. Nashville got screwed christmas of 2010 though... stupid gradient. We deserve a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Wait a minute -- am I going crazy or does the Euro retrograde this system hundreds of miles WEST between Day 7 and 8? Into northern Indiana?!?!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 SE TN River Valley is screw zone in this type of situation....no biggie, though, plenty of winter to go. Northeast TN is in the same boat more than likely Bob..........like you say though, plenty of winter to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Also, GFS ensembles paint a pretty wintry picture for parts of TN and a good chunk of Kentucky..........interesting times ahead for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Wait a minute -- am I going crazy or does the Euro retrograde this system hundreds of miles WEST between Day 7 and 8? Into northern Indiana?!?!?!? 500 low moves NNE up the western side of the Apps and into Canada through 210 hrs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Must be some sort of malfunction on Alan's site. Here is what I get when I click on 192 hours. 500 low moves NNE up the western side of the Apps and into Canada through 210 hrs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 500 low moves NNE up the western side of the Apps and into Canada through 210 hrs.... Seems as if we are seeing a trend south and east. If this is a real trend, it makes you wonder how much further it can go............It wouldn't take much more to put a LOT more people in the ballgame (for at least back end/wrap around wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro getting into the LR doesn't look too far off from the GFS at least out to 222. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Must be some sort of malfunction on Alan's site. Here is what I get when I click on 192 hours. Always wondered how to define the word "wonky". I think this image sums it up. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It's the LR of course but @240 on both the GFS and the Euro it looks pretty darn close. Energy coming from the SW with moisture building up in TX. Haven't checked 5h but it's gotta look almost identical based on surface maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I am more interested in the period after the storm right after Christmas (for the potential of a widespread winterstorm), but this one all the sudden has potential for someone. Will be interesting to see what occurs. I am guessing the blocking is trending stronger. The high pressure to the northwest appears to be strong "enough" for someone on the northwest side of this (even down into parts of the south/midsouth). Coincidence?? Cold Rain starts our January thread and evidently he has the power to alter our late December storm too? I am beginning to wonder about that guy................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 I have updated the model beta site with a few new features as we continue progressing with it. The first big one is a CACHEBUSTER! No more old maps being pulled out of your cache folder. The second is marking off hours which are not available yet as a model run comes in (only available on the GFS right now.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro getting into the LR doesn't look too far off from the GFS at least out to 222. Yep, the 12Z Euro also has that Pacific low diving SEward days 7-9 just off the west coast and getting into position to turn eastward and potentially reach the SE ~1/1. The difference is that the Euro doesn't have it nearly as cold as the 12Z GFS in the SE. Hopefully, the Euro is wrong about the lack of cold then, but who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Use the beta model site... we have loops of Allan's maps that do not run on Java http://www.americanw...age/models/home Thanks, Wow!! You are indeed, The Man. Works like a charm and easy on my eyes, without all the colors running together, like some loops, and making me cross eyed. Many thanks. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Per DT for those interested. "KY especially eastern KY and central and eastern TN get crushed with snow WVA is r/s mix total snow.. snow gets hammered as well as western PA and western half of NY state. There is a REASON why the 12z operational Eur is INLAND like thus... GEEK TALKS HERE... the big peice of energy or the short wave over the Delta goes " negative ".. takes on a NW to SE alignment so the Low comes inland on the euro. The 12z GFS has this happening BUT its over AL so the surface Low is much further east" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Here are the last two runs of the Euro, along with last night's ensemble mean. Ensemble mean first, then 0z followed by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Now, the last two runs of the gfs Ensemble mean. 12z then 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Per DT for those interested. "KY especially eastern KY and central and eastern TN get crushed with snow WVA is r/s mix total snow.. snow gets hammered as well as western PA and western half of NY state. There is a REASON why the 12z operational Eur is INLAND like thus... GEEK TALKS HERE... the big peice of energy or the short wave over the Delta goes " negative ".. takes on a NW to SE alignment so the Low comes inland on the euro. The 12z GFS has this happening BUT its over AL so the surface Low is much further east" Some people don't know their geography super well...However, it really is too early for details... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Some people don't know their geography super well...However, it really is too early for details... While I agree on the details AND geography part..............this is the second EURO solution in a row, with support from other operationals and ensembles so I believe models are beginning to zero in on a "legitimate" solution. Sure models will shift - but this is in the EURO's wheelhouse......at 144. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I'm closing in on the totals the Gfs gave me for this storm. Based on recent successes, I'm beginning to think most storms that it shows inside of 7 days have merit, for rain anyway. I can't tell you how many times over recent years it would show a half inch to and inch and I'd get a few hundreths, if a storm actually appeared. Lately, its been on the mark. I think that is worth repeating, because this is a huge pattern change..for me, anyway. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 time for the mid-south/tn folks to take over the board...... for east coasters this one is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 While I agree on the details AND geography part..............this is the second EURO solution in a row, with support from other operationals and ensembles so I believe models are beginning to zero in on a "legitimate" solution. Sure models will shift - but this is in the EURO's wheelhouse......at 144. Time will tell. 100 miles will make a huge difference is all I mean...if you are in BNA in the wheel house right now, you might be PO'd if you just got a little glop in the aftermath.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 time for the mid-south/tn folks to take over the board...... for east coasters this one is over I believe Sent from my Milestone X 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Well the EURO And GFS looked a bit interesting today huh?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 time for the mid-south/tn folks to take over the board...... for east coasters this one is over Kidding! I'd be in the valley screw zone for this but I hope other TN'ers cash in big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Well the EURO And GFS looked a bit interesting today huh?? for Jan 1st and 2nd yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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