burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Interestingly enough right after truncation the snowfall map for the GFS on Accupro has most of NC with a one inch dusting of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Guys, it's >240 hours. Fun to dream about, but not even close to reality. Yeah, we know...that doesn't need to be said. What makes this storm interesting is because we're getting into a pretty active pattern and the setup just looks right for this storm. Will it change? You bet. But it has been consistent on modeling and it is definitely something to continue to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Guys, it's >240 hours. Fun to dream about, but not even close to reality. I agree, but t has been very consistent with a storm in that timeframe. Alan Huffman: @RaleighWx: I think the 12z GFS New Years Day winter storm idea for upper Southeast/lower mid-Atlantic has merit. #weather #snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yeah, we know...that doesn't need to be said. What makes this storm interesting is because we're getting into a pretty active pattern and the setup just looks right for this storm. Will it change? You bet. But it has been consistent on modeling and it is definitely something to continue to watch. I agree. We want to see the Euro in the LR start to follow suit. Last night wasn't spectacular in the LR. Either way there is reason to at least be somewhat excited even if it is 300 hours away given what we had last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grcjrsc Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 January 2002. I love winter weather, but that was a mess and 3/4s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yeah, we know...that doesn't need to be said. What makes this storm interesting is because we're getting into a pretty active pattern and the setup just looks right for this storm. Will it change? You bet. But it has been consistent on modeling and it is definitely something to continue to watch. The ensembles hint at this as well. Maybe it will be the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 ..THE FORECAST FOR GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN NC AT 5946 FT... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT... .TODAY...CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTH WINDS 40 TO 45 MPH...INCREASING TO 50 TO 55 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 78 MPH. .TONIGHT...CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES DURING THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS. WEST WINDS 40 TO 45 MPH... INCREASING TO 45 TO 50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 74 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT. .FRIDAY...CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS. WEST WINDS 50 TO 55 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 88 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Guys, it's >240 hours. Fun to dream about, but not even close to reality. i think we all know that...i hope. but i think just the fact that models are showing something in contrast to last year is keeping hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 While the GFS is probably too far south on both the Christmas week storm and the following, believe the trend is important. It tries to dig the Eastern CONUS trough a little more with each system. I'm guessing the Christmas week storm ejects too far north again. Lead shortwave right before Christmas will probably slaughter any CAD chance in NC. The next one might actually track through the Tennessee Valley but that is still not going to get the job done. If the thing does not go blasting up the Apps, but more west to east, perhaps CAD or at least in situ over there. Nah that far out I should punt CAD talk. Let's talk big picture that far out. GFS retrogrades the AK trough back into the Aleutians and Bering Sea which is a plus. It shows in the 11-15 a decent Alaska ridge. We'll see. If it happens we finally stop getting those troughs into Calif. That MUST end in order to get rid of the downstream, but subtle and flat, upper ridge that's been camping out over the Southeast and acting like the Great Wall of something. GFS tries to drop a PV out of Hudson Bay. All this will probably evolve slower than forecast, iff it even does happen. It is an approximate repeat of November, so plenty believable. This is not last winter. We're actually doing the usual 4-6 weeks on and 4-6 weeks off like a usual winter, total cycle about 10-12 weeks. Keep your fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z GFS individual ensemble members, roughly half of them have the SLP off the NC coast, would be very intrigued for the mtn's and VA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 While the GFS is probably too far south on both the Christmas week storm and the following, believe the trend is important. It tries to dig the Eastern CONUS trough a little more with each system. I'm guessing the Christmas week storm ejects too far north again. Lead shortwave right before Christmas will probably slaughter any CAD chance in NC. The next one might actually track through the Tennessee Valley but that is still not going to get the job done. If the thing does not go blasting up the Apps, but more west to east, perhaps CAD or at least in situ over there. Nah that far out I should punt CAD talk. Let's talk big picture that far out. GFS retrogrades the AK trough back into the Aleutians and Bering Sea which is a plus. It shows in the 11-15 a decent Alaska ridge. We'll see. If it happens we finally stop getting those troughs into Calif. That MUST end in order to get rid of the downstream, but subtle and flat, upper ridge that's been camping out over the Southeast and acting like the Great Wall of something. GFS tries to drop a PV out of Hudson Bay. All this will probably evolve slower than forecast, iff it even does happen. It is an approximate repeat of November, so plenty believable. This is not last winter. We're actually doing the usual 4-6 weeks on and 4-6 weeks off like a usual winter, total cycle about 10-12 weeks. Keep your fingers crossed. So your thinking this might actually time out well to get a 4-6 window in the heart of Jan/Feb.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Guys, it's >240 hours. Fun to dream about, but not even close to reality. Very well put. The details are only of entertainment value. However, when looking at the general pattern, keep in mind that the last four runs of the GFS have a somewhat similar scenario of a Pacific storm diving SSE in the eastern Pacific in about a week and subsequently turning eastward, picking up lots of Gulf moisture while moving into the SE ~1/1 along the southern boundary of Arctic air, which is forced down by impressive blocking to the north. So, the general idea of some sort of SE winter storm threat for around 1/1 may already have merit. Also helping: the just released 12Z GEFS concurs with this general idea with lots of Pacific/Gulf moisture moving eastward across the SE along the southern boundary of Arctic air near 1/1. Even it has ~1" of QPF falling within a day or two of 1/1 for many areas. The last four GEFS means have something similar. Speaking of dreaming, the 12Z GFS puts down 0.87" of liquid equivalent in the form of pure snow at KATL 1/1-2! Once the snow starts early on 1/1, KATL falls to below 32 and pretty much doesn't get back above it through the end of the run (7 AM on 1/5)...96 straight subfreezing hours. Over a deep snowcover, it gets down to 12 F 1/3 AM! A second small snow falls early on 1/5 due to a 2nd/weaker Miller A! This is the winter wx dream of a lifetime for me. Who knows when this good of a dream will come along again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Thats a very strong signal for a winter storm on the GEFS...... anytime you have a 1003 SLP off the coast at 300+ hours its special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z GFS individual ensemble members, roughly half of them have the SLP off the NC coast, would be very intrigued for the mtn's and VA... I don't know PB, I see more like 3 of the 12 with sfc low along the coast and 540 thickness in the general vicinity of the TN/NC line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro is further south than last nights run....let's see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I don't know PB, I see more like 3 of the 12 with sfc low along the coast and 540 thickness in the general vicinity of the TN/NC line. I counted the following, you also had to look at hr156, didn't really care about thicknesses, just thought for the NC mountains and VA would be curious. C000 P001 P005 P002 P009 P010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro is further south than last nights run....let's see where it goes. 12 hours faster, it looks like it will end up simliar to the 0z when all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 A good portion of MS gets some descent snow out of this run of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12 hours faster, it looks like it will end up simliar to the 0z when all said and done. Much colder for TN this run...it actually lays down some descent snows for TN. This has the low really wrapping up over the apps of NC even gives some snow to western GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlweatherman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 A good portion of MS gets some descent snow out of this run of the Euro. Where do you see the Euro maps as they are running ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 A good portion of MS gets some descent snow out of this run of the Euro. TN/KY look golden on the Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Where do you see the Euro maps as they are running ? They're paid maps through Stormvista. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Always dicey but could be some back end snow for WNC on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 A good portion of MS gets some descent snow out of this run of the Euro. Cumberland plateau and BNA might get in on the fun too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com Thanks, Jon! For some reason I've never been able to get Raleigh's loops to run for me. Probably Java related. Guess, I'll stick with what I've got, since the good stuff never comes until way out in the "it won't happen as depicted" range, lol. I like that the Gfs long range is now showing some fun storms. So unlike last year. I predicted zrain the first week, or so, of Jan. in the guess the storm thread, so I'm not out of the running yet, Don't much think it will be before Xmas down here, from the last few days runs. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I would guess a good portion of TN gets 3 - 6 inches on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Where do you see the Euro maps as they are running ? on a pay site HP not nearly as strong as depicted on the 12z GFS (which wasn't that strong to begin with).. it's basically non-existent. But a lot closer to a winter storm for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Cumberland plateau and BNA might get in on the fun too... This looks like a good storm for you TN folks if the Euro plays out like it did on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Looks like BNA (Nashville) get's 1" of QPF, looks to be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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