DopplerWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Wow, low forming in the gulf over south la at 126! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Based on the warm Dec./Jan. analysis I just posted, I'm rooting on the old Euro runs' late Dec. major Arctic outbreak scenario more than ever as my feeling about January wintry precip. potential and cold potential would be much better vs. if we don't get that Arctic outbreak. If we don't get it, climo tells me there is little reason to be optimistic about Jan 2013. If we get it, climo says it could easily be party time. So, I'm going to watch the about to be released 0Z Thu Euro very carefully. Regardless, I'm not expecting any sig. wintry precip. this month at KATL. I'm telling the Moles we want it down near 0 after Xmas!! Meanwhle, I don't think we can ignore the GFS's recent talent in sniffing out rains, for my backyard, anyway, after having no rain for so long. Once again today, right on cue, it is raining. Pretty impressive to my amature mind The totals so far don't match with yesterdays Meteostar, but it ain't over yet! And the 6z depiction of the Xmas storm seems more likely to me as it shows a less exhuberant system thru Ga. anyway. When Goofy throws up a two headed monster, I get a little leery. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 1024 high sitting over NY with moisture spilling into the Carolinas with CAD showing up on the model. This run could turn interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Cold air is going to be lacking with that 500mb lobe setting up over the Great Lakes...parent sfc High will stay well west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 From the energy out west the low really gets cranking in AR and looks to be heading up the apps @147...big glob of moisture heading into the Carolina with a descent CAD signal showing up. Not sure how much cold air is there to tap though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 This run at the upper levels kind of in between 0z and 6z GFS -- 0z had big 3-4 contour upper low that held together through Ohio valley. 6z lost that all together. 12z has weak 850 upper low (one contour) over Arkansas Christmas night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 This run at the upper levels kind of in between 0z and 6z GFS -- 0z had big 3-4 contour upper low that held together through Ohio valley. 6z lost that all together. 12z has weak 850 upper low (one contour) over Arkansas Christmas night. Nashville looks like it might get something big on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Now the 12z looking more like 0z and less like 6z -- upper low blowing up over NE Miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 By 159 possibly some backside snow as the system heads north. Interested to hear a met's thoughts on the CAD potential on this run. Where is Brandon at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 PA also gets hammered on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Cold air is going to be lacking with that 500mb lobe setting up over the Great Lakes...parent sfc High will stay well west. Turned out better than I thought, but this is such a stale air mass (not cold) that this system is plowing into Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Snowing all the way down to the Gulf on the backside per 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Five contour 850 low over Nashville -- well south and east of the 0z position (which was west of Springfield, Ill.), but nothing like the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Just from a cursory glance the high over the lakes isn't of sufficient strength (generally want ~1035 mb+) and it's also a bit further north than you'd like to see. I wouldn't expect much frozen precip even in the favored damming regions of NC and southward from that. That's just strictly taking this model verbatim... Edit: The only exception might be in the higher elevations on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Looks like our only hope is some sort of 6z GFS hybrid where everything is supressed and the ULL doesn't close off until the last second -- once that sucker gets going, it really slows down and heads NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Not a bad run for middle TN. Looks like a decent deformation band on NW side.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Just from a cursory glance the high over the lakes isn't of sufficient strength (generally want ~1035 mb+) and it's also a bit further north than you'd like to see. I wouldn't expect much frozen precip even in the favored damming regions of NC and southward from that. That's just strictly taking this model verbatim... It seems as if the trend over the last 24 hours is for a weaker storm. The 6 gefs showed this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The trend from 00z is southeastward at the surface, and the models are also finally picking up on more of a high over the lakes region, which I've been waiting on due to the confluence in that region. Unless the 50/50 low comes back southward I don't know that the high over the lakes can trend much stronger than currently shown though. It's also discouraging that even with a high in a decent position that the GFS didn't have us colder than it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Where are ya'll getting your GFS from? My CNRFC is lagging behind, but it's the best for my color blind eyes. I've tried to find other sources but most aren't as easy for me to see. I'd like to try some others out though. Thanks, Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Where are ya'll getting your GFS from? My CNRFC is lagging behind, but it's the best for my color blind eyes. I've tried to find other sources but most aren't as easy for me to see. I'd like to try some others out though. Thanks, Tony http://raleighwx.americanwx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 This run certainly not weaker than 6z GFS and is every bit as strong as the 0z. Need to look past surface maps. The 850 mb low is a monster. Somebody will see huge deform band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 *FWIW* major winter storm for SE US ~12/31-1/2 per 12 Z Goofy. Fwiw!! Classic Miller A snowstorm for many. Very heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 FWIW. major winter storm for SE US ~12/31-1/1 per 12 Z Goofy. Fwiw!! i guess the north must get their helping of snow before the south does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Man, what a storm for the NE -- just keeps snowing and snowing -- lots of rain to start in big cities, but eventually everybody changes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Wow, although it is at 300hrs GFS shows a big winter storm for the SE with plenty of cold. It has been showing this system on several runs now, will be something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yes indeed. I'll GLADLY take some of that! :-) *FWIW* major winter storm for SE US ~12/31-1/2 per 12 Z Goofy. Fwiw!! Classic Miller A snowstorm for many. Very heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 This Goofy run is the best/most entertaining run of the season to date and one of the best in several years with one of the biggest and most widepread SE snowstorms being modeled for days 11-13 as well as it being about the coldest run for the SE US for days 7-16 for the season to date with nearly nonstop cold. Keep your sanity, folks, but also keep hope alive. Besides the modeled snowstorm, getting cold late this month would be quite helpful climowise since it would bring Dec.'s warmth down just enough to help Jan. correlations to cold/wintry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Even though it is 11-13 days out, imo this is the timeframe (~1/1) to look for a potential major SE winter storm as the cold is more in play and the last four GFS runs in a row all have a very wet storm for around the new year. It appears that its packet of energy and moisture may be traceable to something that is currently in the far western Pacific. After moving eastward days 1-7, it then takes a sharp dive SSEward in the E Pac. days 7-9, thanks interestingly enough to the -PNA steering, before then making a turn to the east and making a beeline toward the SE US, where it arrives days 11-13 in a collision with the southern extent of Arctic air, which is forced down due to nice blocking. It is important to note that this general idea occurs on each of the last four runs of the GFS with very similar timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 That reminds me off jan. 2nd 2001 or 2002. I forget bc I went to Outback Bowl both years, but on the way home hit blizzard conditions prior to getting to Jacksonville on my way home to Cola. Wow, although it is at 300hrs GFS shows a big winter storm for the SE with plenty of cold. It has been showing this system on several runs now, will be something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Guys, it's >240 hours. Fun to dream about, but not even close to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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