griteater Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Our "50/50" low splices and sets up way to the west (north of the Great Lakes) at hr120-144, and that shuts off any chance for cold air to filter southeast. Warm air in abundance ahead of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Good trend for the lp in the new years time frame though, seems we will have more cold air to work with and a possibility of a more southern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The models have definitely trended South and East tonight, hopefully the trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The field goal posts are set. left upright is the chicago lakes cutter track, right upright is a miller B that redevelops off the va coast. Will be interesting to see which way the models trend towards over the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Major changes on 06z gfs for next week's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 A solution we haven't seen yet. Tells me nc is still well in play Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Good grief.... just for giggles, check out the difference at 500mb between the 0z and the 6z....valid at 12z Wednesday morning. 0z run... 6z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Good grief.... just for giggles, check out the difference at 500mb between the 0z and the 6z....valid at 12z Wednesday morning. 0z run... 6z run... Good grief is correct on the surface it shifted about 800 miles south and could maybe be argued is a look we REALLY want to see this far out (for the energy behind it). Lol good luck with forecasting this one Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Good grief.... just for giggles, check out the difference at 500mb between the 0z and the 6z....valid at 12z Wednesday morning. 0z run... 6z run... So, throw this run out, or is it a trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 And the 6z ensemble mean is weak and ots. The low travels just sout of tbe upstate in sc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 So, throw this run out, or is it a trend? We'll know by 12z...right now it's so far to the extreme in the other direction it's probably just a burp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro ENS last night looks close to the Euro but maybe with a stronger CAD (hard to tell but an actual expert can chime in). Also has another system around 330 that looks to give part of the SE some winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 We'll know by 12z...right now it's so far to the extreme in the other direction it's probably just a burp. Yeah, you wonder what the model sees 6 hours later that causes it to weaken the system and just push it off the Carolina coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yeah, you wonder what the model sees 6 hours later that causes it to weaken the system and just push it off the Carolina coast. As Matt showed it's just latching on to a different piece of energy. We really need the system to our west to get out of the way so that the actual players are on the field and the models can get their stuff together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 A couple of the members of the 00 GFS ensembles look yummy. This one in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Well, this proves HKYWX and others' points that the models are really struggling with this pattern change. Even having said that, those two runs are a pretty stinging indictment of the accuracy of weather models -- to go from a three-counter low to .... nothing, in just one run in the 6-day timeframe is pretty pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro ensemble def' looks like an ice threat w/ the gfs prob being too flat. I still think something like a miller b towards eastern TN w/ redevelopment off of NC is most likely in this scenario. But we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I'm thinking a bit slower solution might be good to allow the cold air to bleed in just a bit more before precip. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Well, this proves HKYWX and others' points that the models are really struggling with this pattern change. Even having said that, those two runs are a pretty stinging indictment of the accuracy of weather models -- to go from a three-counter low to .... nothing, in just one run in the 6-day timeframe is pretty pathetic. I've been meaning to say that for a while. We see this every year so it shouldn't be surprise anymore. Any time you see the models flopping like a fish you can bet good money on the fact that a pattern change is coming. Right now all of the teleconnections (except PNA... we're working on that!) are looking awesome. Patience. Have fun watching the models but use them for amuesment past 3 days. Once you see them locking down on solutions past 5-7 days, you'll know. I was hoping the Christmas storm didn't pan out for us here in Atlanta because I'm going to be in Sarasota for a few days after Christmas... didn't want to miss anything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Good grief is correct on the surface it shifted about 800 miles south and could maybe be argued is a look we REALLY want to see this far out (for the energy behind it). Lol good luck with forecasting this one Matt Hahaha....thanks. If it was easy, it wouldn't be any fun.... So, throw this run out, or is it a trend? Hard to tell....let's get another run in... Well, this proves HKYWX and others' points that the models are really struggling with this pattern change. Even having said that, those two runs are a pretty stinging indictment of the accuracy of weather models -- to go from a three-counter low to .... nothing, in just one run in the 6-day timeframe is pretty pathetic. I have been harping on this for a while. The pattern remains very chaotic.... energy flying around everywhere. You get a different vort amplifying on nearly every run.... this is the same reason you have big shot of cold air on some runs and barely any on others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 FWIW, there looked to be 2 members of the 00Z GFS ensembles that would have given KRDU snow with the 12/26 event, and 2 completely different members from the 06z run that also did, with one of those suffering from some pretty severe convective feedback issues. In other words, it doesn't appear any trends are developing, at least not yet. It also would be quite rare for the 06z run of the GFS to start a trend due to less data getting sampled in it than the other runs of the model, so I would think more than likely this was just a hiccup -- one of many for the models recently! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 If I'm reading the ewall correctly - last nights euro run looks like a rain to snow scenario for the tennessee valley. Can anyone with access to qpf maps confirm for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Nice cold out west now http://www.daculaweather.com/4_ui_us_st_new.php?launch/sfctmp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 If I'm reading the ewall correctly - last nights euro run looks like a rain to snow scenario for the tennessee valley. Can anyone with access to qpf maps confirm for me? Not from what I can see...a hair too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Not from what I can see...a hair too late. I lookeda t the wunderground euro and its showing some accums north of I40 in west and middle tn. But it looks like a decent plume of lakes moisture coming in with the NW flow that should yield some decent snow showers as well on wed into thursday next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I lookeda t the wunderground euro and its showing some accums north of I40 in west and middle tn. But it looks like a decent plume of lakes moisture coming in with the NW flow that should yield some decent snow showers as well on wed into thursday next week. Sorry...not for MEM.....yeah...I could see NW TN W KY....but give it a run and it will change.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I lookeda t the wunderground euro and its showing some accums north of I40 in west and middle tn. But it looks like a decent plume of lakes moisture coming in with the NW flow that should yield some decent snow showers as well on wed into thursday next week. Check your PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Another run of the GFS with what's probably going to be a totally different solution. Low is forming in the gulf and a different look with the energy out west. It's driving through the Rockies now. We'll see where this one goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z run has the low north of Maine much stronger and also breaks off a lobe of it parked over Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Low is trekking through SAV on this run @129. Will be interesting to see what happens out west later on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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