Bevo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I just cannot shake the thought that until the PAC slows down, models will not be able to "logistisize" their way to a solid mid-range conclusion that materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 at 162 shes cutting over western tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 850 low closed off over Missouri/Ark -- this one's headed to Chicago .... at 162 shes cutting over western tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Strong CAD signal on this GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Strong CAD signature -- even at 850 -- on this run. 0C line stays in Virginia through 165. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 This was probably the best damming signature of any run I have seen, but in the end the main low is too strong and overwhelms it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 well i guess we can forget christmas day or the day after. why doesn't the cold friday hold on for all of next week so the storm next week would be a white christmas. can't seem to get everything to come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Strong CAD signal on this GFS run Rain verbatim. Will take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 These models are still clueless on this storm. I think the margin of error is still well to the SE of where they are taking the SLP. In general, with blocking and a strong 500mb low in the NF region, redevelopment is the most likely situation. IE) a low from Louisiana to the TN Valley and then redevelopment off of Hatteras. The HP sitting up there in the great lakes region is normally ideal for CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 It would be nice if forecasters could indicate a cone of probability with the surface low track similar to hurricane forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 This run actually has freezing rain into the foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Rain verbatim. Will take. Nope. On my cell and haven't looked at soundings but this would be some type of frozen precip changeover in mtns and wnc, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 These models are still clueless on this storm. I think the margin of error is still well to the SE of where they are taking the SLP. In general, with blocking and a strong 500mb low in the NF region, redevelopment is the most likely situation. IE) a low from Louisiana to the TN Valley and then redevelopment off of Hatteras. The HP sitting up there in the great lakes region is normally ideal for CAD. This can be worked on from here. This was the first time true CAD showed up and the high stuck around. I agree that this could easily adjust S and E given that setup on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 This run is an icestorm for the foothills of NC/ into VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Nope. On my cell and haven't looked at soundings but this would be some type of frozen precip changeover in mtns and wnc, IMO. Freezing rain maybe...but good rain event elsewhere out of the CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 If it played out like the 18z GFS... all the damming regions would be in for some freezing rain. We have had several events like this before where the wedge locked in and we recieved significant wintery precip from the baroclinic leaf that streaks way out ahead of the actual system. That band of precip almost always over performs for a localized region. If it played out as depicted by the GFS, some people would get a crippling ice-storm long before the actual front approaches and turns what’s left with the main band over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 This run is an icestorm for the foothills of NC/ into VA. anything for the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Every state in the South-East has wind products out...once the blizzard in the plains passes...I think the GFS will know whats up with any CAD potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 anything for the mtns. Prob some initial sleet/snow to rain. Looks like hickory is .15 then to rain w/ temps around 34, up near martinsville they prob get .4 or .5 of freezing rain before rising above zero. But keep in mind, this is 7 days out. If that HP is seriously 1040+ sitting up there over top the great lakes, this would trend significantly cold. But it's hard to trust any solution at this point. But as I've said for several weeks, the indices support something occurring around this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 not likely to verify of course, but if you want a wintry pattern here in the southeast look at panel 264h on 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Freezing rain maybe...but good rain event elsewhere out of the CAD. From your quote it looked like you were saying rain verbatim in the CAD area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 NWS Blacksburg...before the 18z GFS came in. Details of the initial weaker wave still have plenty of questions...but with overall zonal pattern at that time...trends now seen for faster solutions are preferred. Have begun leaning this way with slight chance probability of precipitation arriving later Monday but may even need to speed this up more. Right now have highest chance probability of precipitation later Monday night given remaining uncertainty in 00z ensembles...but 12z GFS and European model (ecmwf) both suggest light precipitation will push through quickly by early Monday evening. Best to keep probability of precipitation low at this point given uncertainty in timing. If the timing is either early Monday morning...or even into Monday night...surface temperatures could be cold enough for some lighit freezing rain in spots...and across far north high elevations may even see light snow or rain/snow mix. Most of this should be rain though...and amounts light enough so that anything frozen that might fall would have little impact. Have undercut guidance on high temperatures though give light precipitation and very weak damming as this wave passes over. While current guidance does indicate a short break between this and next digging and more potent system...given uncertainty in all this timing...have left low chance probability of precipitation up for the time being...with next overrunning precipitation possibly arriving by Tuesday night...but with slower solution more likely think this may hold off until web morning. Have introduced likely probability of precipitation by ties night and Wednesday given this stronger system with much better chances for widespread precipitation. More classic damming pattern likely to set up in advance of this with surface high over New England...but not especially strong or very cold/dry air initially. Still...despite strong warm advection by later Wednesday...surface wet bulbs could be low enough for some freezing rain or mix...and again much may depend on exact timing. Have undercut guidance on Wednesday for highs given likelihood of some kind of damming. Best chance for any wintry precipitation would be across northern portion of area...but this whole system is still a long way off and strength and timing of all aspects could change quite a bit. Certainly the next important system to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Prob some initial sleet/snow to rain. Looks like hickory is .15 then to rain w/ temps around 34, up near martinsville they prob get .4 or .5 of freezing rain before rising above zero. But keep in mind, this is 7 days out. If that HP is seriously 1040+ sitting up there over top the great lakes, this would trend significantly cold. But it's hard to trust any solution at this point. But as I've said for several weeks, the indices support something occurring around this timeframe. I think it should be noted how hard it is for models to model cold air damming events. granted they have gotten better, but it's still not good. I agree the synoptic setup should for now only be followed. Do you see a way the high pressure can move east? That would be ideal for a CAD event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 AccuPro snow map actually lays down a one inch swath of snow across most of NC from about CLT to RDU and points west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 From your quote it looked like you were saying rain verbatim in the CAD area. I should have been more specific. Went back and looked at Burger's map, good deal of people in the prime CAD region, we will need cooler trends still for the majority here. Otherwise, they or even we might predominately be looking at a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Strong CAD signature -- even at 850 -- on this run. 0C line stays in Virginia through 165. Cad signatures are almost always underestimated at the longer ranges. This has the possibility of becoming something much bigger. I am actually becoming a little interested and I think things will come into focus much better once this short-term midwest storm gets out of the way. As so many have pointed out already, this one bears watching if you live in the damming areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Here is what the surface conditions would look like if the 18z gfs verifies. Is the ens verifies, then the 0c line would move south due to the low being further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Robert seems pretty confident it's much to do about nothing on the CAD talk.... And he's pretty darn good with forecasting CAD's! He says no threat of ICE whatsoever in NC,VA. of any signficance.... Plausible given how the models are behaving. Don't know what to believe until I see run to run consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The reason you're seeing the damming become more pronounced is that it's out of the truncation stage now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 No more blizzard talk in the special weather statements... Statement as of 9:03 AM CST on December 19, 2012 ... Hazardous winter weather still possible across parts of Oklahoma and North Texas early next week... The overall forecast in regards to winter weather potential around Christmas has changed somewhat since yesterday. The most recent computer models are less aggressive with the system set to impact the southern and Central Plains from Monday through Wednesday of next week... yielding less confidence in a major winter storm for Oklahoma and North Texas. However... there are still indications that some wintry precipitation will be possible from late Christmas eve through December 26th. As of now... the most likely timing of any winter weather will be from early Christmas morning through the day after Christmas. Exact precipitation type and accumulations remain unclear. It takes very little wintry precipitation to cause travel problems... especially if any ice accumulations occur. If you plan to travel the week of Christmas... monitor the weather situation closely... and be prepared for weather related travel delays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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