burgertime Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 How strong is HP and where is it centered? That's the problem, HP is sitting around Ontario or just west of there and is 1020. At 174 looks like CAD is sticking around even though our high is getting out of NY a 1032 high is sliding down from Quebec. We'll see what happens. Update: of course as soon as I type this the high goes POOF as soon as the moisture comes in. Looks like Dr. No may be striking again....but it does have some good rains for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I think we will see the models struggle with next weeks storm for a couple more days. We need to get the current storm in the midwest out of the way and see how that sets up the upper air pattern down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I think we will see the models struggle with next weeks storm for a couple more days. We need to get the current storm in the midwest out of the way and see how that sets up the upper air pattern down the road. True that, this run of the Euro is slower with a different look over all but about the same outcome as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Winter whether or not next week the Euro has been consistent that around the New Year it's going to be COLD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I 100% agree. The the wild swings in the GFS from 18Z to 12Z today and now this different look on the 12 EURO.... It should be fun watching to see what plays out next week. But yes, the euro looks to bring the cold in... I think we will see the models struggle with next weeks storm for a couple more days. We need to get the current storm in the midwest out of the way and see how that sets up the upper air pattern down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 I 100% agree. The the wild swings in the GFS from 18Z to 12Z today and now this different look on the 12 EURO.... It should be fun watching to see what plays out next week. But yes, the euro looks to bring the cold in... Not only that but some serious Arctic Blocking. It's going to be a very fluid pattern here in the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Not a bad look at the end of the run...just at the surface looks like a split flow may be setting up though temps have moderated back to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Trying to pinpoint one slp will be very fun.... Glad this is not my job. However, movement continues to look nice as we head deeper into Dec... Not only that but some serious Arctic Blocking. It's going to be a very fluid pattern here in the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Not only that but some serious Arctic Blocking. It's going to be a very fluid pattern here in the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Damming high just north of NYS would probably make the air too stable for severe weather in this scenario, too. That might not help AL,MS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 All I see is a SE ridge at the end of the run and a trough on the west coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 IF the Euro is even close to correct, with the Arctic blocking, trough over the Aleutians, and a split flow look, then WATCH OUT BELOW. The start of January could be a lot of fun for winter lovers. It seems it has been a long time coming but my confidence is growing with each model run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 IF the Euro is even close to correct, with the Arctic blocking, trough over the Aleutians, and a split flow look, then WATCH OUT BELOW. The start of January could be a lot of fun for winter lovers. It seems it has been a long time coming but my confidence is growing with each model run! That massive west coast trough (again) teleconnects to a healthy SE ridge. If we could kick that out of the house, everything else looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 All I see is a SE ridge at the end of the run and a trough on the west coast... I was just quickly glancing at the surface. I'm sure it will change on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 That massive west coast trough (again) teleconnects to a healthy SE ridge. If we could kick that out of the house, everything else looks pretty good. Yeah, that's true, but we're finally seeing hints of a ridge building into AK.....with the potential "blockiness" the flow(s) will start to buckle resulting in the potential for good storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I was just quickly glancing at the surface. I'm sure it will change on the next run. It will change but it seems for all the changes that occur every model run we still end up with the same bad result. The fact that the Euro looks better 10 days from now means little when it looked pretty good 10 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 It will change but it seems for all the changes that occur every model run we still end up with the same bad result. The fact that the Euro looks better 10 days from now means little when it looked pretty good 10 days ago. I would disagree, we're getting very good model consensus with the ENS from both models that it is going to turn colder and a much better pattern is going to set up. Right now we're just dealing with the typical run to run changes. Next week would just be a bonus but it looks like the start of Jan. is where it's at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I would disagree, we're getting very good model consensus with the ENS from both models that it is going to turn colder and a much better pattern is going to set up. Right now we're just dealing with the typical run to run changes. Next week would just be a bonus but it looks like the start of Jan. is where it's at. Agree. I like the teleconnection runs today. The NAO is forecasted to stay negative while the Pacific is headed toward a more neutral phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Yeah, that's true, but we're finally seeing hints of a ridge building into AK.....with the potential "blockiness" the flow(s) will start to buckle resulting in the potential for good storms. Yep. It feels like we're moving in the right direction. So if we can finally establish an arctic air mass in Canada, get a split flow, and get some semblance of a ridge out west, with all the blocking around, we won't need to try to shoehorn in a winter storm. Hopefully, we can start to see some of these hopeful signs move into the 7 in time frame instead of the 10 out. That's not too much to ask, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 It will change but it seems for all the changes that occur every model run we still end up with the same bad result. The fact that the Euro looks better 10 days from now means little when it looked pretty good 10 days ago. Yeah, but it keeps showing rain, and that's a huge improvement. I've been getting the rain that was out in goofyland a while back. If I keep getting goofy rain, then Katy bar the door when cold season finally arrives. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidyr2k Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Yep. It feels like we're moving in the right direction. So if we can finally establish an arctic air mass in Canada, get a split flow, and get some semblance of a ridge out west, with all the blocking around, we won't need to try to shoehorn in a winter storm. Hopefully, we can start to see some of these hopeful signs move into the 7 in time frame instead of the 10 out. That's not too much to ask, right? establish an arctic air mass in Canada get a split flow get some semblance of a ridge out west Nope, that's a reasonable request. I know what imma ask Santa for now. Not a bad look at the end of the run...just at the surface looks like a split flow may be setting up though temps have moderated back to normal. Shoot, "normal" beats the pants off where we were last year @ this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 DT says the euro ensemble is way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 DT says the euro ensemble is way east It's kind of the last holdout run (and has been for a while) for a decent winter storm for the northern SE/MA. With the op as far west as it is, there must be some members that are really digging and pushing this storm due east instead of north as the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 18z GFS should be interesting. Will get a better idea if 0z was maybe onto something fun or more likely an anomaly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 18z GFS comedic in its differences to 6z run through 126 -- Christmas Eve midwest storm fizzles - holds energy back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 DT says the euro ensemble is way east It is pretty east of the OP but enough north to not help out those in NC or the SE even including TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 6z GFS run at 144 hours -- three contour 850 closed low over Michigan. 18z GFS at 132 hours -- it's just gone. #GFSisworthless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 6z GFS run at 144 hours -- three contour 850 closed low over Michigan. 18z GFS at 132 hours -- it's just gone. #GFSisworthless +1 include the euro to some extent too haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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