Met1985 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I guess you all read Don's post? http://www.americanw...ost__p__1925142 Ya Steve he seems to be really liking January. He has had some great write ups recently about the pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Pretty amazing differences from 12z GFS to 6z GFS today... 6z GFS doesn't have a closed low coming from the west and has a nice block just north of Canada, we would obviously be rooting for the block to sag further south but hopefully atleast the mountains and TN can cash in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Pretty amazing differences from 12z GFS to 6z GFS today... 6z GFS doesn't have a closed low coming from the west and has a nice block just north of Canada, we would obviously be rooting for the block to sag further south but hopefully atleast the mountains and TN can cash in.... I agree that it would be nice to have the block and confluence zone set up farther south. But I would also like to see a potent area of high pressure start to show up around the Lakes or the northeast. We will need that feature if we want to have a shot at a winter storm around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 This run of the 12z already looks like it might have a different solution at 5h...we'll see how far that s/w out west can dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 This run of the 12z already looks like it might have a different solution at 5h...we'll see how far that s/w out west can dig. Doesn't appear too far...looks like this one will cut inland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Doesn't appear too far...looks like this one will cut inland... I agree Jon...Imo this will be further west than the 0z run just by looking at the 500 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Doesn't appear too far...looks like this one will cut inland... Yep...going to be a big rain maker....but hey it looks to not go to the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Yeah, it closes off at hr 159 in NE Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Yep...going to be a big rain maker....but hey it looks to not go to the lakes. haha I knew you would strike through it. This thing is cutting hard at 162. Oh well, I can't imagine the 18z trending toward what we want...will have to wait for the 0z tonight. Can't wait to see which side the Euro is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Closed off much earlier than 00z, cutting up west of tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Wow, what a difference from last nights run. It has gone from Charlotte on the 0z run to almost Chicago on the 12z run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Damming high just north of NYS would probably make the air too stable for severe weather in this scenario, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Heartland gets crushed on this run...hey at least if this verifies it puts lots of snow cover down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Wow, what a difference from last nights run. It has gone from Charlotte on the 0z run to almost Chicago on the 12z run.... Not exactly the most modest shifts we've been seeing from the GFS as of late, downright erratic if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 but how does that low cut into a 1033 high just above it? still makes no sense to me synoptically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Hey look at that @192 GFS goes all wonky puts a typhoon in the NE and has RDU with some backend snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Not as much of a western ridge on this run compared to the 0z. There is also a big difference over eastern Canada on this run as well. I still expect a lot of run to run changes still. Big difference from the 6z ensemble run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Heartland gets crushed on this run...hey at least if this verifies it puts lots of snow cover down... That's a great point - whether or not one buys into the "Snow Pack Paradigm", it shouldn't go without saying that an effective cold air transport usually begins with the least amount of obstacles. If winter is to amp up for the SE, you'll want that upper-mid/ mid west snow pack on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Nice to see the Euro shift 700 miles S. Only 5 more days until we have any clue...if then... I guess the gfs shifted 700 miles north this run... God is great, beer is good, models are crazy...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 but how does that low cut into a 1033 high just above it? still makes no sense to me synoptically It moves out the upper low and the associated upper confluence which would both anchor the high in place and force the storm to remain more suppressed. As the upper low and confluence zone depart/weaken, the storm can gain latitude. Now, whether it plays out that way is another matter altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Benchmark for western NC piedmont/foothills(heck probably all of SE ,except AL/TN). Any low that closes off before reaching the Mississippi River is gonna go to our west, 99 times out of a 100! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 GFS chock full of lake cutters and app runners this go around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 GFS chock full of lake cutters and app runners this go around Definitely ugly...trough in the west and ridge in the east to start the New Year. I feel like we have been watching the same setup for weeks now and it just recycles, it's like groundhog day. But the weeklies/CFS say January is going to be cold/wet for the SE..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Euro will probably be opposite of gfs with ridge out west trough in the east.. I just don't trust any models at all when they have 500-1000 mile shifts from run to run... Hopefully euro shows us some love? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 sure wish we were looking at a storm for next week like the midwest is getting ready to get. any chance of the storm next week coming south around the bin and up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 While showing rain on the 12/26'ish storm for the SE, I think there was a significant development on the 12z GFS for CAD regions that nobody has mentioned. I beleive this is the first GFS run in quite some time that shows some development or lobe of high pressure in a key area in the 12/25-27 time frame. In this case, theres a 1032 hp that stays set up in southwestern Quebec. The GFS also appears to try to put out a CAD signature, but it isn't quite there. I think this is something to watch in future runs. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Euro might have a surprise in store. Big chunk of cold air making it's way into Eastern Canada @144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 @162 1028 high sitting over NY with a CAD signature showing up...meanwhile out west the storm is brewing low is around central MS...we'll see where it goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Euro might have a surprise in store. Big chunk of cold air making it's way into Eastern Canada @144 How strong is HP and where is it centered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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