franklin NCwx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Question: How would a high pressure over North Dakota enhance winter precip for the southeast? I dont think that would enhance a CAD event if the high is that far west. For the spine of the apps and points west it does. Cad is good for some but not all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Question: How would a high pressure over North Dakota enhance winter precip for the southeast? I dont think that would enhance a CAD event if the high is that far west. It wouldn't unless it shifted quickly east from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Euro ensembles are quite a bit different than the operation on the 26th storm. They bring 5h low much further south and HP is in much better position(1040mb sitting over north dakota at hour 168). The models have backed off a bit w/ the 50/50 low today, so hopefully that trends back towards a stronger scenario. so hope is still there for the nc mtns and foothills for next week on the cold and snow? still any chance of the storm going south and east of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 18z GFS is coming out * Better chance at light snow showers in east TN and in the mountains after the front passes Thursday Night * It still looks like WV could get almost a foot of snow with this next front * The post Christmas storm is now a little further south bringing (possibly) accumulating snow into west, middle, and possibly east TN. I'll have to double check the models later to make sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 If ever there was a run we want to hope for in the LR it's the 18z...cold air in place with storm after storm coming out of the gulf. Probably not going to happen but oh did it look beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 so hope is still there for the nc mtns and foothills for next week on the cold and snow? still any chance of the storm going south and east of us? Seems unlikely for a couple days now this would be a snow situation. The SLP will be interior, the question is just the HP placement and 5h setup over the northeast/canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 If ever there was a run we want to hope for in the LR it's the 18z...cold air in place with storm after storm coming out of the gulf. Probably not going to happen but oh did it look beautiful. The negative tilt on that was unbelievable. If the tilt is that negative the direction matters less as the rain to snow change over will happen further east on the south side of the low. This is still too far out though. We'll know more after this Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 ... A large winter storm may impact Oklahoma and western North Texas sometime around Christmas night... A rapidly evolving upper storm system will move into The Rockies early next week near Christmas eve. The storm then appears it will move across portions of Kansas... Oklahoma... and Texas late Christmas night through Wednesday. Snowfall will accompany this storm system. Although it is still too early to determine exact snowfall amounts and the precise timing of the system... some locations could experience white out or blizzard conditions. Travel may become treacherous late Christmas night and the day after Christmas... especially across portions of Oklahoma. Be prepared to have your travel arrangements cancelled or changed for the upcoming Holiday. Monitor the latest updates from the National Weather Service as more accurate information becomes available later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 For the spine of the apps and points west it does. Cad is good for some but not all. you cant get a CAD event west of the apps, but i think he talking about the front being anna like? idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Refresher on CAD for folks: Cold air damming, or CAD, is a meteorological phenomenon that involves a high pressure system interacting with local geographic features. A cold-air damming situation typically involves a high pressure system located poleward of a mountain range. The flow around the high runs up against the mountains, forming a barrier jet which funnels cool air down a narrow stretch of land in front of the mountains. Resultant weather associated with this feature is persistent cloudiness and precipitation which can linger for long periods of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 you cant get a CAD event west of the apps, but i think he talking about the front being anna like? idk Yes, that's. What i was getting at. No cad over this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Not that it really matters for the SE but this is what how I thought the GFS was going to turn out on it's 12z/18z runs...This is the GGEM 12z ENS...This would be interesting for the MA and points NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The GFS ensembles are interesting similar to the EURO ensembles. Several of those members are certainly icestorm material. And then i see this ensemble mean and i say to myself, how can that vort in the southwest go anywhere but the tn valley and be forced to redevelop. The blocking scheme just screams miller b to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 guys pretty sure there was pretty good signs that the blocking was being broken down faster......thought we agreed on that, did you really expect things to just poof happen overnight......LOTS of TIME models still do not have a handle on blocking IMO there will be more BIG swings and they are to be expected, this time tom. who knows what they gonna show, patience is the key at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=7&fcolor=wbg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I would think at this point, barring any surprises, it is time to look at January as being our first chance at winter. Basically, climo supports that anyway. Honestly, I'm too tired to dig this up...but how does the ENSO look for Jan-Feb. GaWx, you got that? If we are in Nina territory, may be tough luck. However, if we can hold neutral eventually the -AO has to win. PNA is driving the cart right now. May drive to the mtns this weekend if they get the expected upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Just looking at Meteostar. Gfs is giving me around 3/4's in a day or two, then some negative value 850's, then a good inch and a quarter. Seems pretty typical a winter forecast to me. Some cold sandwiched in between some rain. I'll take that as a long range model guess, If I only get a few chances at frozen each winter, then I'm all for having rain involved, as it helps make the sleet fall, lol. So far, lately, the Gfs has been verifying on rain, and close to totals, in mby. I'd say that was a good thing for a long range guess. Got to keep the little things in focus, and enjoy them. If it continues to verify the rains it projects then this will be a great, great winter. And if I get my two or three chances for cold to meet some gulf rain, then I'll be happy come spring. Of course, I may be a great simpleton, lol. but I hate drought worse than even bad ice storms. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Not sure if anyone posted this but here is the CFS temp forecast for January. I'm curious. Can you post their mid November outlook for December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'm curious. Can you post their mid November outlook for December? Here you go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Here you go... Wow looks like it nailed December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Wow looks like it nailed December. Not sure. It started with a Nov.22 map that had the southeast cooler and then went progressively warmer. How about one from mid month. Say the 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 HMMM...00z GFS doing something interesting with the energy....almost like splitting the energy and leaving a southern piece for trouble... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 So far the 0z gfs appears to be a little different tonight. So far I'm out to hr 183 and it has not closed off the system in Tx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 So far the 0z gfs appears to be a little different tonight. So far I'm out to hr 183 and it has not closed off the system in Tx. yes. It's a whole new different look. Has a lp going up the tennessee valley on Christmas eve/day. Hopefully that will pull down some colder air for a late week storm. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 At 186 it has a sfc low off in the gulf off the La./Ala. coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 yes. It's a whole new different look. Has a lp going up the tennessee valley on Christmas eve/day. Hopefully that will pull down some colder air for a late week storm. TW That's what I'm hoping, but so far we don't have the cold. We'll have to see where this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Wow at 180 a lp is way south into the gulf. will probably head due north in the next few frames though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 It didn't close off but going neg tilt at 192. This could be a good run for the WNC folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 MUCH diff look at 192...wow...lp over sw ga. flooding rains. EDIT: at 204 the lp over eastern nc!! 977mb low. wnc getting some wintry action...ga getting rocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Then it turns into a nuke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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