WhiteoutWX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The SLP track is not silly... it heads due north because the GFS suddenly tightens up the 5H trough and takes it neutral/negative tilt and the storm blows up. With that said, the run did look odd and I think the truncation did cause the block to erode too fast which allowed for the storm to tighten up so fast. I agree that it looked much improved over previous runs up until truncation and is a major step towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 You think it's to early to worry about 850's being too warm for snow? CAD signal was definitely there. IF it doesn't cut then I think the icing potential is pretty big though. With that amount of blocking in Canada and the presence of the 50/50 low we've seen on the latest models, I don't see it being too warm in the prime CAD regions for snow. If it's less so and this begats a Miller B situation then it's probably too warm at 850, but not at the surface. Again, it's still a good ways out there.. The key right now if the trend. GFS hopping on board with the Euro as far as getting the key components in place is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The SLP track is not silly... it heads due north because the GFS suddenly tightens up the 5H trough and takes it neutral/negative tilt and the storm blows up. With that said, the run did look odd and I think the truncation did cause the block to erode too fast which allowed for the storm to tighten up so fast. I agree that it looked much improved over previous runs and is a major step towards the Euro. I was looking at that too. I haven't seen the snow maps lately, but so far it looks like this is trying to develop a decent snowstorm from north TX, through OK and AK and even Memphis, TN, and lighter snows further east. The negative tilt for something that far inland was amazing as well. Like I said, it's just now getting a little less hazy since the very next front is later this week - and after that we'll know with a lot better precision. The Euro had one hell of a bowling ball, too, but a more southerly track if I'm not mistaken. This is shaping up to be an interesting situation - even this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I think most people on the board that live outside of the cad areas better hope this can become a miller a..... Miller b jobs don't tend to work out in the coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 It wants to go into an area of high pressure it looks like... Trend is good for 10 day storm. i know lows go to falling pressure, but i have never seen a low do that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 So - what exactly happens to the cold air at the end of the run? No -20 850 temps to speak of in the north Western Hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The last four GFS runs have consistently made it cold from the western U.S. through the MW and into the NE by ~12/28-9 and extending into the first few days of Jan. Let's see if the dates start to slip or if we finally reach a consistently cold period then for those areas. If so, that would be consistent with the new Euro weekly timing regarding the cold and would be a big and important step. The -NAO on the 0Z run was quite impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I like/(but don't really like) the idea of it cutting...just not how it was shown this run. If I was a betting man, this thing runs the Apps or west. On to the EURO tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 0z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Have not seen it posted anywhere but interesting AFD from NWS Raleigh this afternoon. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 257 PM MONDAY... A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND... FOLLOWED BY... A STORMY AND COLDER WEEK IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK... WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON STORM TRACK... STRENGTH... CAD DEVELOPMENT... AND ANY FREEZING/FROZEN P-TYPE FOR DEC 25-27. THE MODELS DEPICT THE NEW ENGLAND STORM TO BECOME A SLOW MOVER... DUE TO INCREASING BLOCKING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED NW FLOW OF DRY SEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR OUR REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... A CONTINUED CHILLY PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH BRISK NW BREEZES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LARGE UPPER CYCLONE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART NEW ENGLAND. LOWS 27-32 AND HIGHS SATURDAY EXPECTED IN THE 47-52 RANGE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY... EXPECT A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA TO BEGIN TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED EC AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST THAT THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER... ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST A PORTION OF THIS ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK... AND POSSIBLY BECOMING LOCKED IN PLACE BY THE INCREASING BLOCKING MID-UPPER FLOW PATTERN. THE EC AND GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE THIS SCENARIO... WITH THE GFS INDICATING MORE OF PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD HIGH OFFSHORE. AGAIN... THE DEVELOPING BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT SUGGESTS THE FORMER PATTERN MAY EVENTUALLY WIN OUT. REGARDLESS... SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIR AND CHILLY WITH BRISK NNE FLOW... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S (50 SE). THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT POTENT UPPER TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO COME EAST FROM THE WESTERN STATES THE 25TH THROUGH THE 27TH... WHICH MAY ENCOUNTER MUCH COLDER AIR OVER OUR REGION BY THAT TIME. THE MAIN STORM TRACK IS STILL FAVORED TO BE WEST OF OUR REGION... BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL COLD AIR (AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CAD)... SUGGEST A MILLER TYPE B STORM NEXT WEEK. THE STORM TRACK ITSELF TYPICALLY SUGGESTS RAIN. HOWEVER... ARCTIC AIR... THE POTENTLY CAD... AND MILLER B STORM TYPE... SUGGEST INCREASING ODDS FOR FREEZING OR FROZEN FROM OUR LATITUDE NORTH AND WEST. THE MAIN STORM TRACK FORECAST TO OUR NW COMBINED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL CAD SUGGESTS WARMING ALOFT... AND EITHER RAIN OR POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN (IF STRONG ENOUGH CAD CAN BE MAINTAINED DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD) AS THE MAIN P-TYPE OVER OUR TYPICAL PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The SLP track is not silly... it heads due north because the GFS suddenly tightens up the 5H trough and takes it neutral/negative tilt and the storm blows up. With that said, the run did look odd and I think the truncation did cause the block to erode too fast which allowed for the storm to tighten up so fast. I agree that it looked much improved over previous runs up until truncation and is a major step towards the Euro. If you really think a cutoff sitting over Texas is going to phase w/ a weak PV lobe over the hudson bay, you have no clue how to read a wx model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 GEFS says the OP run is smoking something. Has the mean SLP position well east (i.e. it's not cutting up into the lakes) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 ^ Looks like some coastal development there too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 ^ Looks like some coastal development there too? Miller B setup here we come 2002 repeat here we come..contingent this is a true miller b setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 1060mb high on the 0z CMC with lows in central/east TX ready to tap into that gulf moisture and get busy on the east coast. 1040mb over Kansas doesn't hurt either ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Euro looks warmer at 72 :/ springtime at 96 144- still warmer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 If you really think a cutoff sitting over Texas is going to phase w/ a weak PV lobe over the hudson bay, you have no clue how to read a wx model. It doesnt phase with anything maybe you should recheck said weather model. The trough over the plains simply sharpens up due to the blocking lifting out. It's completely plausible to happen as the GFS suggests if the block does indeed break down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Another wild run from the Euro bombing this one out in the Plains... CAD in place so it's a snow to ice deal in NC/VA Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Another wild run from the Euro bombing this one out in the Plains... CAD in place so it's a snow to ice deal in NC/VA Piedmont. Does this include charlotte? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Another wild run from the Euro bombing this one out in the Plains... CAD in place so it's a snow to ice deal in NC/VA Piedmont. Bout 2 days late for me to enjoy it I think another thing people need to realize with the setup we're seeing on the euro, there is certainly room for this to trend a little southward and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Another wild run from the Euro bombing this one out in the Plains... CAD in place so it's a snow to ice deal in NC/VA Piedmont. High looks like its trying to build SE out of Canada in advance of the low at 168. That's key for the CAD. Regardless of where the low tracks you want as much high pressure in the northeast as possible to have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 That is one of the strangest maps I've ever seen at 216 on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Bout 2 days late for me to enjoy it I think another thing people need to realize with the setup we're seeing on the euro, there is certainly room for this to trend a little southward and colder. I still thinks it's more likely to end up that way. I'll bet 10 to 1 the HP over the Lakes will trend stronger as the 50/50 config is more coalesced as we approach this event. Obviously, this ULL is not going to occlude in the middle of the country like that and sit there spinning for a couple of days. Both the Euro and GFS still having issues with the blocks flying around the higher latitudes. I need to look up the best analog to this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 High positioning is very good by 192. Defininite CAD signature and with the sfc low heading so far west it actually would not matter that much that it bombs out. Snow might not be on the table for this one but I don't think anyone outside the mountains should really be expecting that. With a high to the north feeding in cold low level air, ice would be the main concern but only if it builds in the way the euro shows. The GFS would not quite do although its trending better. The cmc doesn't even have a high anywhere close and would be all rain for sure in that scenario. Still a ton of time so the pieces can still move in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Well, the 6z GFS has the same lakes cutter/miller B mess. The biggest thing I see is a constant parade of storms across the country. Looks like the negative SOI is producing. Lots of chances for rain at least. If we get a well placed high and a perfect track, it will be show time. If not, hopefully we can measure our rain in inches instead of having to count the number of raindrops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Euro Ensembles go from NW/Mississippi to Tidewater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Great trend last night with the GFS....Not sure why people are still hung up on the low trekking to the lakes as has been discussed ad nauseam with blocking in place that more than likely won't happen. Also as has been noted the GFS in the LR looks downright juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Euro ensemble has a pretty intense looking CAD signal for this far out. If this really does stay a bowling ball type of situation into the midwest, this could be a severe icestorm for someone in VA/NC. That HP is in close to being in ideal position. This could finally be one of those situation where the models trend much colder at the surface as we get close to the event. (ala jan 2004/Dec 2005). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 GEFS says the OP run is smoking something. Has the mean SLP position well east (i.e. it's not cutting up into the lakes) and the 6z GEFS says the OP is not smoking anything and is pretty sober with a perfect, beautiful lake cutter. 06z EC ENS trying to show the uncertainty with 3 lows from the lakes to the coast of NC at 216. 12z EC ENS had the low over TN. Great trend last night with the GFS....Not sure why people are still hung up on the low trekking to the lakes as has been discussed ad nauseam with blocking in place that more than likely won't happen. Also as has been noted the GFS in the LR looks downright juicy. Because that's what the models are showing, haha. If there's absolutely no way that will happen, then great! But I've heard Robert say that it isn't as impossible as some think and I agree. I don't think we should be as optimistic as we are until either the Euro OR GFS show at least one solution that makes "sense" with this storm. They have to pick it up somewhere right? The only model I've seen close is the canadian. Also, I'm no tone to rely on any CAD for obvious reasons, so that means nothing to me but I hope if that's best case with this system someone can profit. With the ENS and OP runs I do see a trend east, so lets hope that continues as we'll be under 200hrs -- it's game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Scratch that, the operational euro has an even more impressive CAD signature. Let me tell you, if these models are right w/ this HP scenario this is a big time sleet/ice situation for central and western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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