Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 After further analysis, I admittedly like what I see on the new Euro weeklies even a bit more. Here's why: 1) Both the NAO and AO are more negative (stronger blocking) than the Euro weekly run from four days ago, which covered the same exact four weeks. 2) After a slightly warmer week #1 in the E US (no surprise after the warm adjustments of the last few days), the 2 meter temp.'s for the subsequent three weeks in the E 1/2 of the US are overall significantly colder vs. the Euro weekly run from four days ago, which as I mentioned covers the same exact four weeks (through 1/13). Weeks 2 and 4 are much colder than that from the prior run whereas week 3 is a little colder. As a matter of fact, weeks 2-4 actually have colder than normal covering most of the country from coast to coast. I, of course, do take these with a big grain of salt. However, so that the reader doesn't just think that I'm a nonobjective cynic, I will point out two encouraging things about the weeklies that may mean there's some credibility: 1) This is the coldest week 2-4 run anomalywise at two meters for the US as a whole by a good margin since at least early Sep. (as far as I went back). That covers 31 Euro weekly runs. Actually, I saw no other run having all of weeks 2-4 with such widespread below normal U.S. temp.'s 2) The runs in late Nov. for Dec. were largely warm. The 11/29 run had a torch for four weeks. Thanks for the info on the Weeklies, Larry! Much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 THIS IS A MUST READ: Briarcreek is correct and this is exactly what he has been referncing along with Brandon. If you don't understand REX Blocks and pattern recoginition, you need to take 5 minutes and learn some crucial basic information explained in this post. Burger the Euro ensembles are very telling and carry alot of weight at the moment, more so than the euro operational. That's all great but DT is assuming the Rex block actually forms as being shown on the models, specifically the ECMWF. Yes the low shouldn't head straight into the block, but if the block fails to develop strong enough it can easily move out in time for a GFS type solution to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 After further analysis, I admittedly like what I see on the new Euro weeklies even a bit more. Here's why: 1) Both the NAO and AO are more negative (stronger blocking) than the Euro weekly run from four days ago, which covered the same exact four weeks. 2) After a slightly warmer week #1 in the E US (no surprise after the warm adjustments of the last few days), the 2 meter temp.'s for the subsequent three weeks in the E 1/2 of the US are overall significantly colder vs. the Euro weekly run from four days ago, which as I mentioned covers the same exact four weeks (through 1/13). Weeks 2 and 4 are much colder than that from the prior run whereas week 3 is a little colder. As a matter of fact, weeks 2-4 actually have colder than normal covering most of the country from coast to coast. I, of course, do take these with a big grain of salt. However, so that the reader doesn't just think that I'm a nonobjective cynic, I will point out two encouraging things about the weeklies that may mean there's some credibility: 1) This is the coldest week 2-4 run anomalywise at two meters for the US as a whole by a good margin since at least early Sep. (as far as I went back). That covers 31 Euro weekly runs. Actually, I saw no other run having all of weeks 2-4 with such widespread below normal U.S. temp.'s 2) The runs in late Nov. for Dec. were largely warm. The 11/29 run had a torch for four weeks. So glad it still shows the rains. I was never worried we'd see cold...two warm winters in a row seems far fetched, but I've seen drought drag on and on, and would love to believe I'm in a pendulum swing change. Sort of heistant to to believe after being disappointed so many times ...yet my totals so far have been good....though it is a fledgling season yet. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I would be overly cautious on the timing of this thing. The euro is really bad at holding these bowling ball type storms over the west and midwest too long. It also has the tendency to prevent them from shearing out. The GFS sometimes shears them out too quick. That's why the ensembles are generally a better guide this far out. There is only one key to this system, the 50/50 low. If that is there. trust me guys, this will be at worst an icestorm for a large section of NC. Not just the foothills. If it's not there, then this is likely too warm. So just chill and watch the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I would be overly cautious on the timing of this thing. The euro is really bad at holding these bowling ball type storms over the west and midwest too long. It also has the tendency to prevent them from shearing out. The GFS sometimes shears them out too quick. That's why the ensembles are generally a better guide this far out. There is only one key to this system, the 50/50 low. If that is there. trust me guys, this will be at worst an icestorm for a large section of NC. Not just the foothills. If it's not there, then this is likely too warm. So just chill and watch the trends. What do you mean by at worst? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The reason I say that, is the 500mb low istting up there over Maine would act as a barrier to the warm air advection ahead of the STJ shortwave. It locks in the HP, locks in the cold dome from 850mb down on the east side of the Apps, and ultimately forces a relocation of the SLP offshore. It is a miller B unless something changes w/ the s/w track. IE it trends much further south. I also believe the global indices are in our favor this time around. DT and Briarcreek have made some great posts on this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 What do you mean by at worst? Well... the best case scenario is always a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The NAO block on the 0Z GFS is further west/stronger, and, therefore, is causing a good bit colder air to come into the MW/NE early in the 6-10. This the coldest GFS run for this period in those areas in at least five runs. I don't know if this will translate down into the SE. However, perhaps this is a good sign?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Blocking quite a bit stronger compared to last run of the GFS by 150 hrs, both in S Canada and over N Canada/Arctic. i.e. the UL over California has to dig south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 By 156, it's already popping a low over N TX. Strong Canadian HP overhead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 By 156, it's already popping a low over N TX. Strong Canadian HP overhead... How can that possibly cut with that map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Digging south.. by 162 a secondary surface LP popping over Brownsville TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 How can that possibly cut with that map... Block is beginning to budge east. Though with it initially stronger the storm is south and east of previous runs. We'll see what that means down the road. By 174 that Canadian high still hasnt shifted into a favorable CAD position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 How can that possibly cut with that map... Wouldn't be surprised if the GFS finds a way to do it, but this is a big step toward the Euro.. no question there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Ohh lala at 180.... Is it trying to shift the primary to the gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 at 204 the low is on the coast of la.... EDIT: and of course it cuts to the great lakes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 0z GFS looks very much like today's 0z Euro.. holding a pos tilt on the southern ULL.. surface low will stay in the gulf. As our 50/50 low lifts, the big high will slide SE into CAD position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 ..but the GFS truncates beyond 180 and will probably wrap it up too quickly and send the low up the apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 850s are torching unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Yep, the GFS found a way to cut this inland...Has the UL cutting right across Memphis, Tn. on it's way to Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Decent size rain event no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Although it cuts inland after truncation, this was a very good run imo. The slp forms over the la coast, looks similar to the euro. trends are going in a positive direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Another due N almost NW turn by the GFS... Not sure I've ever seen that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 ..but the GFS truncates beyond 180 and will probably wrap it up too quickly and send the low up the apps ... guess I was too generous.. it completely cuts it off and doesn't budgedespite another big wave coming in. Folks, that ULL will be over the SE coast with that huge trough behind it kicking it along. Up until truncation, this was a huge step toward a major snow and/or ice storm for parts of the SE. HUGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 ... guess I was too generous.. it completely cuts it off and doesn't budgedespite another big wave coming in. Folks, that ULL will be over the SE coast with that huge trough behind it kicking it along. Up until truncation, this was a huge step toward a major snow and/or ice storm for parts of the SE. HUGE. I'd say a large portion of the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 ... guess I was too generous.. it completely cuts it off and doesn't budgedespite another big wave coming in. Folks, that ULL will be over the SE coast with that huge trough behind it kicking it along. Up until truncation, this was a huge step toward a major snow and/or ice storm for parts of the SE. HUGE. You think it's to early to worry about 850's being too warm for snow? CAD signal was definitely there. IF it doesn't cut then I think the icing potential is pretty big though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 GFS looks much better this run. The slp track is silly. after 180 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Never seen a low go from Brownsville straight to NY. But big step toward euro until trunc. Time for z's hopefully euro will be good when I rise in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Never seen a low go from Brownsville straight to NY. But big step toward euro until trunc. Time for z's hopefully euro will be good when I rise in a few hours. It moves from SE Louisiana nw to west of Mem.... Lulz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 GFS looks much better this run. The slp track is silly. after 180 hr It wants to go into an area of high pressure it looks like... Trend is good for 10 day storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.