Wow Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Definite CAD signal to start but by 240 the high has retreated north and the 50/50 low is gone. Looks like ice to rain to me for favored CAD areas NC northward. By the time the CAD is gone, so is the precip (i've seen the maps). It's a pretty wild scenario here with the strong cut off ULL, unlikely to happen verbatim with but the threat of wintry precip is certainly still there for some. I think the 0z was a little more realistic with the progression of the ULL as far as keeping it + tilted up to the MS river due to the proximity of the 50/50 low/blocking regime, then turns negatively tilted as the 50/50 low moves north... a more Miller A or A/B hybrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Definite CAD signal to start but by 240 the high has retreated north and the 50/50 low is gone. Looks like ice to rain to me for favored CAD areas NC northward. I would agree....It looks like an ice to rain situation for WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Have you cleared your cache? We must be looking at two different maps. I think he is (and rightfully so) making fun of the 240hr from last week with the Polar Piggie headed south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Not for the CAD areas: Good point, mine was relevant to the central NC not the foothills/mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I'm hearing the mid atlantic threat that the CAD isn't enough to keep ice around throughout the 2nd half of the storm that is being modeled. How far east does sub freezing CAD make it through the precip? I guess DC is too far east to hold on to it too long? It's a 240 hr forecast....details are very important.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Not for the CAD areas: And a strong enough high will push the cad cold all the way into Ala. I've seen that over and over...and bust the lows a good bit lower. Long, long way off though T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 By the time the CAD is gone, so is the precip (i've seen the maps). It's a pretty wild scenario here with the strong cut off ULL, unlikely to happen verbatim with but the threat of wintry precip is certainly still there for some. I think the 0z was a little more realistic with the progression of the ULL as far as keeping it + tilted up to the MS river due to the proximity of the 50/50 low/blocking regime, then turns negatively tilted as the 50/50 low moves north... a more Miller A or A/B hybrid. It is a wild scenario....I would be worried that the MCS along the gulf choking off the moisture becoming a very light event for WNC (which would still be better than anything so far)....At any rate....details on a closed low at that time frame are way too early, but there would definitely be some entertaining results somewhere. Will be fun to watch if the Euro actually has locked on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 So we're looking at cold rain. Well verbatim to start its a cool rain, once the low forms off the coast the heights would crash and we may get some backside snow. Long way to go.., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 So we're looking at cold rain. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Looks like it's going to be a classic Miller B on the 12z Euro. CAD signature very well pronounced. I don't see this run as being a whole lot different (colder or warmer) at first glance than the 0z run....certainly within the "noise" range for day 8-10. At 850 mb, the 12Z Euro is clearly warmer for the 6-10 day period vs the 0Z Euro: ~4C/7F. Now, it is warmer than it was for days 6-9 and looks to delay the real cold til day 11. Partial Charie Brown/moving the goalposts/mirage effect..whatever one wants to call it. Fool me once, shame on the models. Maybe even fool me 10 times, shame on the models. Fool me dozens of times....., shame on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 It is a wild scenario....I would be worried that the MCS along the gulf choking off the moisture becoming a very light event for WNC (which would still be better than anything so far)....At any rate....details on a closed low at that time frame are way too early, but there would definitely be some entertaining results somewhere. Will be fun to watch if the Euro actually has locked on to something. Seriously? At 240 hours you are worried about mcs along the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Seriously? At 240 hours you are worried about mcs along the gulf. At 240 hours, you're taking anything on the Euro map seriously? I sure hope not as it is no better than pure entertainment value....i.e., is there even going to be a storm anywhere nearby/near that timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Seriously? At 240 hours you are worried about mcs along the gulf. What do you think....I think my opinion of deterministic guidance beyond day 6 or 7 is well known around here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 At 240 hours, you're taking anything on the Euro map seriously? I sure hope not as it is no better than pure entertainment value....i.e., is there even going to be a storm anywhere nearby/near that timeframe? Did you miss my 240 hour map lol post? Are you taking the temps in that time frame seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 At 240 hours, you're taking anything on the Euro map seriously? I sure hope not as it is no better than pure entertainment value....i.e., is there even going to be a storm anywhere nearby/near that timeframe? At the very least, it's an amplified pattern. The active STJ bringing in some sizable storm systems is one aspect I have to strongly agree with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Did you miss my 240 hour map lol post? Are you taking the temps in that time frame seriously? No, I'm not. The model can't be trusted for anything: temps' consistency have been atrocious with one exception! Now it is warmer in days 6-9 and looks to be colder near days 11-12+..omg it never ends! Storms? Forgettaboutit, there's absolutely no telling what will happen even a few days before day 10. The one exception to inconsistency: delay in the cold, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 No, I'm not. The model can't be trusted for anything: temps' consistency have been atrocious! Now it is warmer in days 6-9 and looks to be colder near days 11-12+..omg it never ends! Storms? Forgettaboutit, there's absolutely no telling what will happen even a few days before day 10. .......sorry I didnt see the one for model hugging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Euro run definitely full of personality, but honestly, Miller B's never seem to pan out for us -- if the ULL passes to our west/north, it's usually curtains. We now have model agreement on the Dec. 27/28 system being somewhere between a Lakes cutter and Apps runner with yet another advertisement of 8-12 day cold afterward. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Euro run definitely full of personality, but honestly, Miller B's never seem to pan out for us -- if the ULL passes to our west/north, it's usually curtains. We now have model agreement on the Dec. 27/28 system being somewhere between a Lakes cutter and Apps runner with yet another advertisement of 8-12 day cold afterward. Sigh. model agreenment for a 216-240 hour set of op runs. Are you trolling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 model agreenment for a 216-240 hour set of op runs. Are you trolling? Why is that trolling? What beanskip said is true. Any system that moves north or west of use usually doesn't pan out. It puts us in too much of a warm flow. Now that is not always the case, as the 12z euro was showing an ice to rain situation for WNC. Also beanskip has been around too long to be trolling over a 240 hour forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Euro ENS lines up fairly well with OP, has LP a little farther north over the MA. We obviously more suppression in central NC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Thanks, but I fear that anything other than latching on to the best case scenario is now considered trolling on this board. It used to be that if the GFS showed a system passing through Michigan and the Euro through Kentucky and you honked, you would get made fun of for overhyping. Now if you call it something other than a good looking run you are Widre. Sad. Thanks again though for keeping it real. Why is that trolling? What beanskip said is true. Any system that moves north or west of use usually doesn't pan out. It puts us in too much of a warm flow. Now that is not always the case, as the 12z euro was showing an ice to rain situation for WNC. Also beanskip has been around too long to be trolling over a 240 hour forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Well one thing that is apparent from the model runs over the past month is the SE needs a widespread winter storm!......A lot of hyped up, sensitive, itchy fingered posters in this forum. I think we can agree everyone wants a winter storm. I am all for posting interpretation of the models runs but, no need to get bent out of shape if someone disagrees in proper fashion. Let's take a deep breath and uphold the reputation of the SE sub forum. In light of what happened last Friday....remember it's just weather. Sorry for the rant guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Long range cold on the GFS...by the last panel: 0-10 degrees western NC, north-western NC 10-20 Charlotte to Raleigh 20-30 north Florida -40 Minnesota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Why is that trolling? What beanskip said is true. Any system that moves north or west of use usually doesn't pan out. It puts us in too much of a warm flow. Now that is not always the case, as the 12z euro was showing an ice to rain situation for WNC. Also beanskip has been around too long to be trolling over a 240 hour forecast. Im not referring to the track or any of that. Just that its 200+ hours out so there is never any model agreement at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Long range cold on the GFS...by the last panel: 0-10 degrees western NC, north-western NC 10-20 Charlotte to Raleigh 20-30 north Florida -40 Minnesota lol Too many hours to count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buncombe Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html Hi, I don't post often but read often. I hope I am not breaking any rules in this post. I think today's NCEP 6-10 and 8-14 day discussion (link above) summarizes the past week of discussions on this board pretty well. Keep summary points that we have all gathered from models recently: 1. A HIGH-CONFIDENCE OUTLOOK IS NOT POSSIBLE TODAY GIVEN SEVERAL KEY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. 2. SO TODAY WE ARE LEFT WITH A SCENARIO FACED OFTEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, NAMELY, GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON HOW THE LONGWAVE PATTERN EVOLVES COMBINED WITH A PERSISTENT TENDENCY TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS AND HIGHER-THAN-EXPECTED 500-MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. DESPITE A PERSISTENTLY NEGATIVE AO AND PNA, COLD AIR HAS BEEN LIMITED, EVEN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. We have all seen this happen and it has been discussed often. In the longer range forecast, NCEP hits on the big issue but unfortunately favors the ECMWF at this point: AN IMPORTANT FORECAST DEVELOPMENT TO MONITOR IS WHETHER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES BUILD OVER ALASKA DURING THE PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS, WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE NOT BEEN ON BOARD. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, SUPPORT THE GFS ON THIS POINT. SHOULD HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY OVER ALASKA, THAT COULD POINT TOWARD A DISCHARGE OF ARCTIC AIR TOWARD THE CONUS, FIRST IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THIS TIME, TROPICAL CONVECTIVE FORCING FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION, SO A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF TRUE ARCTIC AIR LATE IN THE PERIOD SEEMS UNLIKELY. Bottom line - lots of uncertainty and the future temperature forecasts depend upon the uncertain storm tracks over the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 lol Too many hours to count? 384* of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Thanks, but I fear that anything other than latching on to the best case scenario is now considered trolling on this board. It used to be that if the GFS showed a system passing through Michigan and the Euro through Kentucky and you honked, you would get made fun of for overhyping. Now if you call it something other than a good looking run you are Widre. Sad. Thanks again though for keeping it real. where did i say it was a good run, or say anything about the track. You are the one claiming "model agreement" for a storm 200 plus hours out. If there even is a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 You guys keep pushing the dates back for storms lol. What happened to the Christmas storm? Now its become the 27/28 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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