December Forecast Discussion

[Bevo]

^^ Good info, Robert. Great to see you posting and certainly appreciate the thoughts. As I have said, I'm certainly content to slowly work colder through the month and the signs are ther that this is indeed likely now. It's good to see it being corroborated by many different sources.

And on into the new year. The truth is - that's typically the way a *normal winter works in the SE.

[Brick Tamland]

Good post. I agree. By the way, it's a little early for a New Year's resolution on posting reform isn't it?

It just all depends on the trough. It seems a lot of mets feel the pattern will change later on this month. It is hard to be patient and not to be pessimistic, though. And if it never happens, a lot of folks will be hard to convince it will ever change and say folks have been crying wolf. Some mets seem to be more postive than others, too. The tone of Allan Huffman's blog today doesn't sound as positive compared to others.

[burgertime]

12z GFS keeps things pretty seasonable for the SE throughout it's run. Of course it brings in the shot of really cold air at the end of it.

[FallsLake]

12z GFS keeps things pretty seasonable for the SE throughout it's run. Of course it brings in the shot of really cold air at the end of it.

I do like the overall look. As you stated very typical pattern early on (up to day 13 or so). Big question is what happen after that???

[NC_hailstorm]

Temp surging again up on the pole at 30hPa today,going a good bit above normal.10Hpa level also starting to move upwards close to normal.Watching for the HLB possibility.

Like to see the zonal winds decrease now.

[FoothillsNC]

And on into the new year. The truth is - that's typically the way a *normal winter works in the SE.

Yes, looks pretty average, and I wasn't on the really cold look for the Southeast Third of the US anytime too soon, but gradually stepping down. Next week, a powerful storm could form in the southern Rockies and then track toward the Ohio Valley, that would warm us up greatly (like now, or warmer) then that front eases through. By the way that storm could have severe here , or atleast strong storms, as it's looking very powerful, and not to mention a big time snowstorm on its north and west track, and if it travels far enough south, I think Ark and western , northern TN could get in on some backside snow, but that's over a week out so don't hold me to it. The pattern looks like it is going to stall some fronts, and I've been saying this for a week, with roughly a large Positive Tilt longwave look, so that argues against turning cold in the Southeast third (but some damming could occur). This next front actually looks to stall too, just 2 days from now, so the Carolinas will have a weak damming event late Wednesday into Thursday. Southern stream systems have been sneaky sometimes this year, and I'd keep my eyes on the Southern stream during weeks 2 and week 3 .

[Bevo]

Yes, looks pretty average, and I wasn't on the really cold look for the Southeast Third of the US anytime too soon, but gradually stepping down. Next week, a powerful storm could form in the southern Rockies and then track toward the Ohio Valley, that would warm us up greatly (like now, or warmer) then that front eases through. By the way that storm could have severe here , or atleast strong storms, as it's looking very powerful, and not to mention a big time snowstorm on its north and west track, and if it travels far enough south, I think Ark and western , northern TN could get in on some backside snow, but that's over a week out so don't hold me to it. The pattern looks like it is going to stall some fronts, and I've been saying this for a week, with roughly a large Positive Tilt longwave look, so that argues against turning cold in the Southeast third (but some damming could occur). This next front actually looks to stall too, just 2 days from now, so the Carolinas will have a weak damming event late Wednesday into Thursday. Southern stream systems have been sneaky sometimes this year, and I'd keep my eyes on the Southern stream during weeks 2 and week 3 .

Right. I've yet to see or experience anything that tells me this will be an above normal temp winter. It's almost always a step down process that doesn't even become consistently cold until January through March. I never understood why people expected December to be wintry in the first place. That would be *abnormal. Where is the worry coming from? The Pacific? It's been covered already that the Pacific isn't positioned to be the monster it was last year. The AO/NAO? It looks likely that it will at least show us more support than it did last winter. The ENSO state? We know it won't be a strong Nina, probably not even a weak one. We are already off to a much improved team of players being fielded. And if anyone hasn't learned by now that living and dying by each model run is bad for your health and your forecasts, then I don't know what to say...

Great input as usual Robert.

[Jon]

Right. I've yet to see or experience anything that tells me this will be an above normal temp winter. It's almost always a step down process that doesn't even become consistently cold until January through March. I never understood why people expected December to be wintry in the first place. That would be *abnormal. Where is the worry coming from? The Pacific? It's been covered already that the Pacific isn't positioned to be the monster it was last year. The AO/NAO? It looks likely that it will at least show us more support than it did last winter. The ENSO state? We know it won't be a strong Nina, probably not even a weak one. We are already off to a much improved team of players being fielded. And if anyone hasn't learned by now that living and dying by each model run is bad for your health and your forecasts, then I don't know what to say...

Great input as usual Robert.

I think people are just scared it might be a repeat of the last winter so they are fixating on anything bad that appears in the LR on the model runs. I try not to do that and focus instead of what I think are trends that are putting in place and looking at climatology...it's great to read Robert's site because he does just that, so that's why I gave in and subscribed. One thing people seem to forget is the pattern has to change...they see the words "pattern change" and think about how we were saying those two words last year and get all crazy. The difference was we were still saying "pattern change" in February...haha if we're well into the latter half of January and still uttering those words then we have a problem.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Right. I've yet to see or experience anything that tells me this will be an above normal temp winter. It's almost always a step down process that doesn't even become consistently cold until January through March. I never understood why people expected December to be wintry in the first place. That would be *abnormal. Where is the worry coming from? The Pacific? It's been covered already that the Pacific isn't positioned to be the monster it was last year. The AO/NAO? It looks likely that it will at least show us more support than it did last winter. The ENSO state? We know it won't be a strong Nina, probably not even a weak one. We are already off to a much improved team of players being fielded. And if anyone hasn't learned by now that living and dying by each model run is bad for your health and your forecasts, then I don't know what to say...

Great input as usual Robert.

Maybe some people expect Dec to be wintry because its the 2nd coldest month of the year in many areas ? You would certainly expect a better chance of snow in Dec than March, since Dec is much colder than March. Heck, it's not even unheard of for Dec to be the coldest winter month in some winters.

[Cold Rain]

I think people are just scared it might be a repeat of the last winter so they are fixating on anything bad that appears in the LR on the model runs. I try not to do that and focus instead of what I think are trends that are putting in place and looking at climatology...it's great to read Robert's site because he does just that, so that's why I gave in and subscribed. One thing people seem to forget is the pattern has to change...they see the words "pattern change" and think about how we were saying those two words last year and get all crazy. The difference was we were still saying "pattern change" in February...haha if we're well into the latter half of January and still uttering those words then we have a problem.

Good posts by you and Bevo. There is no realistic reason to be worried about this winter at all. Even if it's just a "normal" winter, that can be good for many and it will be miles better than last year.

On another note, Jon, take a look at the banter thread.

[Bevo]

I think people are just scared it might be a repeat of the last winter so they are fixating on anything bad that appears in the LR on the model runs. I try not to do that and focus instead of what I think are trends that are putting in place and looking at climatology...it's great to read Robert's site because he does just that, so that's why I gave in and subscribed. One thing people seem to forget is the pattern has to change...they see the words "pattern change" and think about how we were saying those two words last year and get all crazy. The difference was we were still saying "pattern change" in February...haha if we're well into the latter half of January and still uttering those words then we have a problem.

Therein lies the problem. It's time to leave last winter in the history books. This is a new season with a new team. Model runs are not meant to be the end all to what will happen. It's the trends and patterns that reside within a collection of runs that give us a general direction to follow. And I agree with you - that is also why I subscribe.

If - and it's a BIG "If" - we are still waiting on something to change at the end of January and first of February, then yes - we will have a problem. But let's all look first at the present situation:

The players responsible for the disappointing season last year are not on the field in the same way. Some are missing all together, and some have either decided to come out of retirement or are back from injury. It's too early to know if they'll have a better record, but we know it's already an improved squad.

[Cold Rain]

Maybe some people expect Dec to be wintry because its the 2nd coldest month of the year in many areas ? You would certainly expect a better chance of snow in Dec than March, since Dec is much colder than March. Heck, it's not even unheard of for Dec to be the coldest winter month in some winters.

Hard to bet against snowfall stats though.

[Bevo]

Maybe some people expect Dec to be wintry because its the 2nd coldest month of the year in many areas ? You would certainly expect a better chance of snow in Dec than March, since Dec is much colder than March. Heck, it's not even unheard of for Dec to be the coldest winter month in some winters.

Which areas would that be? Here (from the GSP covered areas - excluding W.N.C. - to MS), December often battles March for the right to claim 3rd coldest month. Are you speaking of areas in elevation? And for most of us south and/or east of the Apps - i.e SC, GA, FL, AL, and MS - I would absolutely, without a doubt expect a better chance in March than December. I wouldn't even need all of one hand to count December snow events in my lifetime (concerning my location of course).

*edited for clarity*

If you live in an area of significant elevation, all bets are off. Your weather and my weather are 98% of the time not apples to apples.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Which areas would that be? Here (from the GSP covered areas - excluding W.N.C. - to MS), December often battles March for the right to claim 3rd coldest month. Are you speaking of areas in elevation? And for most of us south and/or east of the Apps - i.e SC, GA, FL, AL, and MS - I would absolutely, without a doubt expect a better chance in March than December. I wouldn't even need all of one hand to count December snow events in my lifetime (concerning my location of course).

*edited for clarity*

If you live in an area of significant elevation, all bets are off. Your weather and my weather are 98% of the time not apples to apples.

I'm speaking for Atlanta specifically. Dec is almost always colder than March, and usually Dec is colder than Feb in Atlanta. Dec is basically the equivalent of June, and we all know how hot it can be in June. Whereas March would be the equivalent of Sept, and I'm pretty sure June is almost always warmer than Sept. Really though, there is not a big difference in temps in Dec, Jan, Feb. Those 3 months have pretty similar average temps in Atlanta.

[Bevo]

I'm speaking for Atlanta specifically. Dec is almost always colder than March, and usually Dec is colder than Feb in Atlanta.

Where are those stats - particularly the ones demonstrating that on average, December is colder than February. Also, what is the snow event percentage for ATL for December v/s March. Can anyone provide this without having to dig it out of the internet mine filed? I'm seriously curious, because ATL weather is not that dissimilar from Lyman - and I am positive December is not a number 1 or 2 cold month in this region.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Where are those stats - particularly the ones demonstrating that on average, December is colder than February. Also, what is the snow event percentage for ATL for December v/s March. Can anyone provide this without having to dig it out of the internet mine filed? I'm seriously curious, because ATL weather is not that dissimilar from Lyman - and I am positive December is not a number 1 or 2 cold month in this region.

According to weather.com, avg high in atl in Dec is 54, 57 in Feb, and 65 in March. So March is definitely significantly warmer than Dec and march is even slightly warmer than November on average !

[Brick Tamland]

I know it is hard to do, especially today when we have weather forums dedicated to the such and everyone is watching the models, but the best thing to do is just to sit back and wait. I have been negative, but this is because of last winter and everyone said then the pattern change is coming, and it never came. Whenever it looked like it was going to happen, something went wrong and it never happened. But like others have said, the players on the field are not the same this winter, so it looks like we will have a better chance for that pattern change to happen and we could have a normal winter at least, which would be a lot better than last winter.

The funny thing is even if we don't have a good winter overall, all it takes is the right setup for a monster storm. I'd gladly take a big storm with a foot of snow over two or three storms with just 2 or 3 inches of snow each. Looking back, the winter of 1999-2000 was not great overall. In fact, the temps were in the 70s in the Triangle the first 3 out of 4 days in January 2000. But we all know what happened at the end of that month.

[Bevo]

According to weather.com, avg high in atl in Dec is 54, 57 in Feb, and 65 in March. So March is definitely significantly warmer than Dec and march is even slightly warmer than November on average !

Bollocks.

Never mind - I'll find it.

[Cold Rain]

I know it is hard to do, especially today when we have weather forums dedicated to the such and everyone is watching the models, but the best thing to do is just to sit back and wait. I have been negative, but this is because of last winter and everyone said then the pattern change is coming, and it never came. Whenever it looked like it was going to happen, something went wrong and it never happened. But like others have said, the players on the field are not the same this winter, so it looks like we will have a better chance for that pattern change to happen and we could have a normal winter at least, which would be a lot better than last winter.

The funny thing is even if we don't have a good winter overall, all it takes is the right setup for a monster storm. I'd gladly take a big storm with a foot of snow over two or three storms with just 2 or 3 inches of snow each. Looking back, the winter of 1999-2000 was not great overall. In fact, the temps were in the 70s in the Triangle the first 3 out of 4 days in January 2000. But we all know what happened at the end of that month.

Ok, this is getting a little out of hand here. Someone has obviously hacked Brick's account and is tarnishing his image. Can we get some help in here??

[Brick Tamland]

Ok, this is getting a little out of hand here. Someone has obviously hacked Brick's account and is tarnishing his image. Can we get some help in here??

Well, I just decided with the back and forth, it's crazy to try to figure out what's going to happen in the longterm. The best thing is just to watch from week to week. And with the way our weather seems to be more and more of one extreme or another, I know it could be 70s here one week and snowing a foot the next.

[packbacker]

I know it is hard to do, especially today when we have weather forums dedicated to the such and everyone is watching the models, but the best thing to do is just to sit back and wait. I have been negative, but this is because of last winter and everyone said then the pattern change is coming, and it never came. Whenever it looked like it was going to happen, something went wrong and it never happened. But like others have said, the players on the field are not the same this winter, so it looks like we will have a better chance for that pattern change to happen and we could have a normal winter at least, which would be a lot better than last winter.

The funny thing is even if we don't have a good winter overall, all it takes is the right setup for a monster storm. I'd gladly take a big storm with a foot of snow over two or three storms with just 2 or 3 inches of snow each. Looking back, the winter of 1999-2000 was not great overall. In fact, the temps were in the 70s in the Triangle the first 3 out of 4 days in January 2000. But we all know what happened at the end of that month.

Maybe we can get a repeat of 2001/2002. If I remember correctly, we had a monster early Jan 2002 snow storm and than we torched the rest of the winter. 2001/2002 was a neutral/neg ENSO and the PDO was close to '0'. Not sure what the PDO is currently doing but if it could approach '0' that would be a nice for this winter.

[griteater]

Where are those stats - particularly the ones demonstrating that on average, December is colder than February. Also, what is the snow event percentage for ATL for December v/s March. Can anyone provide this without having to dig it out of the internet mine filed? I'm seriously curious, because ATL weather is not that dissimilar from Lyman - and I am positive December is not a number 1 or 2 cold month in this region.

Dec is #2 at GSP

Avg Temps Per Month at GSP:

Dec - 44

Jan - 42

Feb - 46

Mar - 53

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/climate/gspcli.htm

I know for Charlotte that Dec and March mimic each other with respect to snowfall. Early Dec is equivalent to late March, and late Dec is equivalent to early March.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Dec is #2 at GSP

Avg Temps Per Month at GSP:

Dec - 44

Jan - 42

Feb - 46

Mar - 53

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/climate/gspcli.htm

I know for Charlotte that Dec and March mimic each other with respect to snowfall. Early Dec is equivalent to late March, and late Dec is equivalent to early March.

The fact that Dec and March mimic each other in terms of snowfall is pretty remarkable don't you think ? Considering that March is so much warmer. I guess that means there is not a huge correlation between average temps and snowfall ?

[Bevo]

Dec is #2 at GSP

Avg Temps Per Month at GSP:

Dec - 44

Jan - 42

Feb - 46

Mar - 53

http://www.erh.noaa....mate/gspcli.htm

I know for Charlotte that Dec and March mimic each other with respect to snowfall. Early Dec is equivalent to late March, and late Dec is equivalent to early March.

I can dig that - what's the ratio in recent history though? The snowfall for March verses December would lean to March for the last decade (or maybe two) right? There's a reason that every one here says that "it doesn't get cold until January, February and March". I know what you posted. And I know what the numbers read. I guess that's the disadvantage of central reporting. I do not believe the numbers in this case (December being colder than February).

*edited for giggles*

I have been going back and looking at old photos of Christmases - all the way back to 1982. It's funny that I am outside in a tee shirt in most of them. I wish I had February photos, but really, who has a lot of February photos?

[Bevo]

The fact that Dec and March mimic each other in terms of snowfall is pretty remarkable don't you think ? Considering that March is so much warmer. I guess that means there is not a huge correlation between average temps and snowfall ?

I do agree with you 100% on this.

[griteater]

Large ridging off the west coast on the Euro isn't bad...but, but, but, you've got to have a solid west-based NAO block to send the cold air into the SE, and keep the storm track suppressed to the south. Without that kind of NAO setup, the trough axis will stay across the Rockies....but this is the kind of pattern that can work this -PDO winter if the west NAO is there.

A lot of the AO positive anomalies across the Arctic are currently located on the Asian side of the pole. We need those more on the N America side of the pole, extending down west of Greenland. Reading in the NE forum, it sounds like the stratosphere isn't conducive right now for that type of west based NAO...that's out in the future a bit though, so not set in stone obviously.

[calculus1]

I'm speaking for Atlanta specifically. Dec is almost always colder than March, and usually Dec is colder than Feb in Atlanta. Dec is basically the equivalent of June, and we all know how hot it can be in June. Whereas March would be the equivalent of Sept, and I'm pretty sure June is almost always warmer than Sept. Really though, there is not a big difference in temps in Dec, Jan, Feb. Those 3 months have pretty similar average temps in Atlanta.

What does that even mean? I'm trying to decipher this. December is as hot as June?

Here are the average temps for HKY over 1981-2010:

HICKORY FAA AP (314020)

Monthly Totals/Averages

Average Temperature (degrees F)

Years: 1981-2010

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual

Average 39.5 42.9 50.1 58.6 66.5 74.6 77.9 76.6 70.1 59.6 50.3 41.5 59.0

Here is the average snowfall for HKY over 1981-2011:

HICKORY FAA AP (314020)

Monthly Totals/Averages

Snowfall (inches)

Years: 1981-2011

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Season

Average 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.3

So, for Hickory, NC, it appears that while December does average much cooler than March; historically, it appears that March has twice as much snowfall on average than does December. In fact, April snowfall is almost the equivalent of December snowfall in Hickory, NC! Thus, all this to say, "I'm not throwing in winter's towel because I don't foresee any snowfall for Hickory in the current longrange forecasts (x<15 days) of the ECMWF or GFS."

The NOAA has a great site for finding historical data for different locations. Check it out here for GSP forecast locations:

http://www.nws.noaa....cis.php?wfo=gsp

[griteater]

I can dig that - what's the ratio in recent history though? The snowfall for March verses December would lean to March for the last decade (or maybe two) right?

This is for CLT...also have to throw in 12/4/02, probably a once in 50-100 year ice storm

Date/High/Low/Snowfall

3/13/1993 37 25 1.6

12/23/1993 42 33 2.6

12/29/1997 35 30 2.9

3/11/1998 45 26 0.5

3/9/1999 41 30 0.5

11/19/2000 40 33 2.5

12/19/2000 37 25 0.2

3/1/2009 37 32 4.0

3/2/2010 40 33 0.4

12/25/2010 42 33 0.4

12/26/2010 33 25 1.6

[Bevo]

This is for CLT...also have to throw in 12/4/02, probably a once in 50-100 year ice storm

Date/High/Low/Snowfall

3/13/1993 37 25 1.6

12/23/1993 42 33 2.6

12/29/1997 35 30 2.9

3/11/1998 45 26 0.5

3/9/1999 41 30 0.5

11/19/2000 40 33 2.5

12/19/2000 37 25 0.2

3/1/2009 37 32 4.0

3/2/2010 40 33 0.4

12/25/2010 42 33 0.4

12/26/2010 33 25 1.6

Nice - it is amazing how a few miles make a world of difference.

[SnowNiner]

Large ridging off the west coast on the Euro isn't bad...but, but, but, you've got to have a solid west-based NAO block to send the cold air into the SE, and keep the storm track suppressed to the south. Without that kind of NAO setup, the trough axis will stay across the Rockies....but this is the kind of pattern that can work this PDO winter if the west NAO is there.

A lot of the AO positive anomalies across the Arctic are currently located on the Asian side of the pole. We need those more on the N America side of the pole, extending down west of Greenland. Reading in the NE forum, it sounds like the stratosphere isn't conducive right now for that type of west based NAO...that's out in the future a bit though, so not set in stone obviously.

I'll give up the whole winter if we have to wait for the stratospheric warming unicorn. Last year was torture trying to pull that thing out of the hat. Just never happened.