NCSNOW Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Great job with disco everyone,espeacilly Red taggers. This will be interesting to watch unfold. It's another case of Euro v/s GFS and a heavy side of pattern recognition v/s modeling. 6z GFS pretty much keeps the tune it was playing at 0z. We'll see what happens at lunch. Really has alot to do with the aftermath/positioning of the inland runner from the end of this week as to sensible weather imo. GREAT TO SEE THE RAIN AGAIN! Looking forward to more as the week wears on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Euro ENS had mostly all of NC covered (but noy MBY *cough cough*) at hour 240 in snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Euro ENS had mostly all of NC covered (but noy MBY *cough cough*) at hour 240 in snow. What is the total qpf/liquid equivalant on the Operational and the ensemble? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Jmo but the cmc looks nothing close to a winter storm threat around here. Looks like a lakes cutter or an apps runner. What the heck are you guys seeing? Re: 0Z CMC: 1) They're talking about it more from a NC perspective, not ATL area. They're, of course, not nearly one and the same in many of these situations. WNC and CNC get sig. more wintry precip. than ATL on avg. Then again, I assume you already realize that. 2) You're correct. With 850's reaching +10+ C during the rain and with no strong wedging, this is not close to a ZR storm down here. However, I could see a day with highs only in the 40's with the rain..a chilly rain. I'll leave it up to the NC posters to assess their area for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 GSP starting to ramp up the wording in the long term afd about the Thur night NWFS event. Could be some action for Met1985, CAD Addict, & such. STRONG CAA REGIME IS STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH 85H TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL TO -10 DEG C ACRS NW NC. MODEL CROSSSECTIONS STILL ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF SHALLOW BUT BRIEFLY STOUT NW FLOW...STILL GIVING RISE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWER THREAT FOR THE FAVORED LOCALES INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 What is the total qpf/liquid equivalant on the Operational and the ensemble? TIA Hard to tell. OP has nothing yet for NC. ENS is around an inch of liquid which would be front end snow probably turning to IP then to rain verbatim on the Euro ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Hard to tell. OP has nothing yet for NC. ENS is around an inch of liquid which would be front end snow probably turning to IP then to rain verbatim on the Euro ENS. The Euro ensembles are much faster with the wave coming across the country. the quicker the better as that keeps more confluence over eastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Euro is probably too slow on the shortwave ejection. if you factor that in, it's a major winterstorm, probably the biggest threat since the christmas system. like we were discussing for a few days, the key is that huge 500mb low sitting over new england, as long as that is there and as long as that forms, this system cannot go into the great lakes and the CAD will be locked in. whether it's a snow or ice scenario is a completely different story. my first inclination is ICE, but that could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 GSP starting to ramp up the wording in the long term afd about the Thur night NWFS event. Could be some action for Met1985, CAD Addict, & such. STRONG CAA REGIME IS STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH 85H TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL TO -10 DEG C ACRS NW NC. MODEL CROSSSECTIONS STILL ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF SHALLOW BUT BRIEFLY STOUT NW FLOW...STILL GIVING RISE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWER THREAT FOR THE FAVORED LOCALES INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. Ya Don this is one thing that Both models are showing. I feel real good about a decent NWFS at the end of the week with some surging cold air across the mountains. Should be festive getting some snow before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Allan sums it up. http://www.examiner.com/article/colder-snowier-pattern-ahead-for-us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Sounds like there's at least enough potential in northern and CAD areas to continue following the late 25-27 storm. DT still seems pretty optimistics, but states that it all hinges on the block. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The 00z GFS is terrible for snow and cold lovers down here. Pattern change may have happened but it doesn't matter as the Pacific is still dominating. If the pacific doesn't change it's look you can kiss winter goodbye -NAO or not. This is so frustrating. Yes, the pattern is changing. And yes it would seem to be more favorable for winter weather around here. But like you said, even if the players on the field are better than the ones last winter, if the Pacific is still too strrong it doesn't matter. Everything keeps getting pushed back each week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The model with a cold bias is now showing a late December semi-torch. Nothing but lake cutters, followed by meaningless dry cold snaps. Our Dec. 18 winter pattern, which then got moved to Dec. 23, which then got moved to Dec. 28, is now being moved to 2013. The Pacific is winning, the models only see it in the 5-7 day range and that doesn't appear to be changing. Yeah, so far looks a lot like last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 12z GFS --- Lakes cutter with Dec. 27/28 storm -- only need an 800 miles shift southeast ....... which would be against the direction of that model's bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 On the positive side, the drought areas are really picking up some much needed rain with these. Very encouraging to see storm after storm beginning to get within 3 to 4 days apart. Rain is good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Not sure what the negativity is about the GFS. So long as it holds to wanting a big LC with the system at Christmas it's still a good thing as it can create the pattern change needed. At best it's wrong and the Euro will start sniffing it out and get a better handle on it as we get closer. At worst it's totally out to lunch and none of that happens and it stays warm...which if you believe that there probably is little reason to look at the GFS from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 One thing I did notice was that there was still a lot of strong hp (1028) east of the mountains as precip moves in. Now if you take another gfs bias into account, you'll see that hp get stronger and hold in longer as we get closer. So gfs isn't showing a miller A bomb, but there's still enough opportunity and pieces of the puzzle available to make some really good things happen. Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I know this is the snow only thread, but I have to agree with Kyle that the big change...BIG change...is rain. It is raining in the south again. What that means to this snow thread should be obvious. Without rain, no snow. If we continue to pull in the rains thru Dec. then Jan. looks pretty good, as it is the rainy month, and apt to be far colder. This is nothing like last year....it's raining. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I know this is the snow only thread, but I have to agree with Kyle that the big change...BIG change...is rain. It is raining in the south again. What that means to this snow thread should be obvious. Without rain, no snow. If we continue to pull in the rains thru Dec. then Jan. looks pretty good, as it is the rainy month, and apt to be far colder. This is nothing like last year....it's raining. T True true, either way GFS is not backing down on getting big rains to areas badly hit by the drought in the SE. I mean this is a great look for those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The GFS and Euro are so different at day 5/6 in handling the pacific...we will have to wait and see who is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 True true, either way GFS is not backing down on getting big rains to areas badly hit by the drought in the SE. I mean this is a great look for those areas. And, Burger, when the cold wants to stay up north is when we look for cads to lock in. The big blasts into Galvaston, are sliding across the top instead, so it won't take much to lock in a reinforcing cad, and if we get rains a couple of times a week, we can find some timing! It may mean ice for us, but you guys could see snow if the column is cold enough. If...there's blocking...and ..if it keeps raining, lol. But, hey, that's winter in the south..if's and but's, keeping us nuts T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 And, Burger, when the cold wants to stay up north is when we look for cads to lock in. The big blasts into Galvaston, are sliding across the top instead, so it won't take much to lock in a reinforcing cad, and if we get rains a couple of times a week, we can find some timing! It may mean ice for us, but you guys could see snow if the column is cold enough. If...there's blocking...and ..if it keeps raining, lol. But, hey, that's winter in the south..if's and but's, keeping us nuts T Whoops updated with the map using imgur. Truer words were never said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 12z GFS --- Lakes cutter with Dec. 27/28 storm -- only need an 800 miles shift southeast ....... which would be against the direction of that model's bias. A 50/50 low in place and the GFS rams in a lake cutter. GFS dissolves the SE Canadian block formed by the severely tilted 50/50 low which the Euro retrogrades into south-central Canada which forces the storm to take a southern track. So, no block, the UL doesn't cut off and already does neg and phases before it even reaches the MS River (though despite a clear 50/50 low in place). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Not sure what the negativity is about the GFS. So long as it holds to wanting a big LC with the system at Christmas it's still a good thing as it can create the pattern change needed. At best it's wrong and the Euro will start sniffing it out and get a better handle on it as we get closer. At worst it's totally out to lunch and none of that happens and it stays warm...which if you believe that there probably is little reason to look at the GFS from run to run. All of the models have a sizable system in our region shortly after Christmas.. The pacific pattern is near opposite of what we've had by that time frame as well (mean trough over the Bering Sea/Aleutians) which will turn the EPO negative. There are wintry threats on the radar for next week with this system, still 200+ hours out. I do believe the Euro still has better stats on the 8-10 day range compared to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stumpy Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Good morning, I am a long time fan and stalker of this site. I recently signed up for a membership and will become a contributor shortly and I just wanted to say Thank You to everyone for the information that is shared here. I used to think that I was a fairly knowledgable amateur "weatherman" but I have come to realize how litte I understand the weather and that's it's just not as simple as looking out the window. The information and opionions that are displayed on this site are fantastic and I have a much better appreciation / understanding of our weather and have learned to enjoy the intricacy of weather because of ya'lls insights. It's always an enjoyable read on whatever forum that I happen to visit but I think the Southeast is my favorite even though it's actually not my region. Thanks Again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 A 50/50 low in place and the GFS rams in a lake cutter. GFS dissolves the SE Canadian block formed by the severely tilted 50/50 low which the Euro retrogrades into south-central Canada which forces the storm to take a southern track. So, no block, the UL doesn't cut off and already does neg and phases before it even reaches the MS River (though despite a clear 50/50 low in place). No cutter with this setup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Welcome aboard. This place is like a rollercoaster. Please feel free to add anything to the discussion!! Also, update your info so we can see where you are posting from. !! Good morning, I am a long time fan and stalker of this site. I recently signed up for a membership and will become a contributor shortly and I just wanted to say Thank You to everyone for the information that is shared here. I used to think that I was a fairly knowledgable amateur "weatherman" but I have come to realize how litte I understand the weather and that's it's just not as simple as looking out the window. The information and opionions that are displayed on this site are fantastic and I have a much better appreciation / understanding of our weather and have learned to enjoy the intricacy of weather because of ya'lls insights. It's always an enjoyable read on whatever forum that I happen to visit but I think the Southeast is my favorite even though it's actually not my region. Thanks Again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 No cutter with this setup! Not often do you see the 540 line below the 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Looks like the Euro and the GFS are completely different with the system around Christmas. I wonder if the energy we have now and how unstable the atmosphere is currently is playing havoc on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Looks like the Euro and the GFS are completely different with the system around Christmas. I wonder if the energy we have now and how unstable the atmosphere is currently is playing havoc on the models. Can you please explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.