franklin NCwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I'm just asking a question. asking a question is part of the scientific process, it's not nonsense. It's an op run at 264 hours, there is nothing "scientific" about it. It's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I really wasn't trying to upset you, I apologize if I did some how. You are still looking at what the outcome of the model run was - a stacked low over Michigan. I'm looking at the upper level blocking and saying that is not likely to happen. In fact, I do not believe if the blocking and 50/50 low set up like most runs are showing that it is even physically possible to happen. Thus, the flow is more amplified and the entire solution is much more wintry if the low tracks further south. I think that's what most mets who are forecasting along my lines are basically thinking. Good post, I'm sure I speak for most on this board when I say you should post more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Good post, I'm sure I speak for most on this board when I say you should post more. +1 I really appreciate his insight... He always has a good read! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I really wasn't trying to upset you, I apologize if I did some how. You are still looking at what the outcome of the model run was - a stacked low over Michigan. I'm looking at the upper level blocking and saying that is not likely to happen. In fact, I do not believe if the blocking and 50/50 low set up like most runs are showing that it is even physically possible to happen. Thus, the flow is more amplified and the entire solution is much more wintry if the low tracks further south. I think that's what most mets who are forecasting along my lines are basically thinking. you were not. Sorry if I came up condescending. I was just noticing on the ensembles stepping through the past few runs of the GFS, that the area of max vort was diminishing over northern CA over each run and the flow becoming more zonal. that's all i was saying. i want snow just as much as yall. i was just pointing out a possibility other than the euro. hopefully the euro will play out like it has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 2010 really did a great job of messing some mindsets up. you all know climo loves late Jan/Feb-March for a good winter storm around these parts in the SE. I'm not really impressed with any model be it the Euro, GGEM, GFS, NAM, any. This current front seems to already be over-performing and causing chaos in the forecast currently with precipitation. Calm down guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Looks like days 4 & 5 could offer another severe threat, although as usual this time of year in the SE instability will probably be the limiting factor. Something to watch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The 23rd storm trended a little further south trekking through mid nc off the va coast, but no cold. The 27th storm takes a somewhat better path, maybe a smidge more south than previous runs but absolutely no cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The 23rd storm trended a little further south trekking through mid nc off the va coast, but no cold. The 27th storm takes a somewhat better path, maybe a smidge more south than previous runs but absolutely no cold air to work with. A smidge south is an understatement. 18z had the low in Houston, 00z has it off the LA coast . If you ask me this is exactly what we need to happen. We'll see where it goes though, but @216 looks like the cold air is getting pulled down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Well of course the 00z spins off more energy heading straight to lakes..with the low in the Gulf just spinning the big pattern change might happen before it heads for us at this rate At 276 mild rain with the cold heading down on it's heels. I would be elated with this run if we got the look that it has at 300. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 This was a funky run... it had a huge storm going to the lakes which setup a great look only to just dissipate it and then kind of bring it back at the end. Either way in the LR the GFS wants it wet here. It'll be interesting to see what the Euro has to say. Goodnight folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 This was a funky run... it had a huge storm going to the lakes which setup a great look only to just dissipate it and then kind of bring it back at the end. Either way in the LR the GFS wants it wet here. It'll be interesting to see what the Euro has to say. Goodnight folks. Yea really weird how it broke off that energy and sent it up to the lakes only for it to bomb out. I was looking at an old run and you were right, the SLP was much farther south, a near perfect track until the gfs went crazy with the energy. Seems like all the pieces are in place, we just need them to all fit together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I don't really know what GFS run yall are looking at. The blocking is not very strong this run, and the western energy is way to slow to eject so when it finally does the block erodes and the entire SE is flooded with warm southwesterly flow. Then with the block gone the next storm bombs out in the plains, too far west to push the mean trough position east. A new trough digs along the west coast as a massive +EPO ridge sets up and the PV parks over eastern Canada into Greenland. This is NOT a good look at almost any point. Hopefully this was just another inconsistent run of the GFS and it will continue to change. Edit to add: All of this occurs post truncation which means 1) it doesn't really matter 2) Once again we are looking to days 10+ for storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The model with a cold bias is now showing a late December semi-torch. Nothing but lake cutters, followed by meaningless dry cold snaps. Our Dec. 18 winter pattern, which then got moved to Dec. 23, which then got moved to Dec. 28, is now being moved to 2013. The Pacific is winning, the models only see it in the 5-7 day range and that doesn't appear to be changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I don't really know what GFS run yall are looking at. The blocking is not very strong this run, and the western energy is way to slow to eject so when it finally does the block erodes and the entire SE is flooded with warm southwesterly flow. Was just comparing this GFS run with the morning Euro, and there are big differences throughout. The Euro sends the trough/upper low much farther south off the U.S. west coast, and thus, there is more western NAmer ridging on the Euro. The 50/50 low and associated ridging to the north of it are also stronger on the Euro...and as you mention, the western low is slower to move into California on the GFS and you lose the connection between that low and the 50/50 low (i.e. you lose the ability to keep the wave from tracking to the Lakes). The one thing I would like to see in order for this to even have a chance is more ridging in western Canada...we need more southward movement of cold air out of north-central Canada, and have it locked in with the 50/50 west -NAO combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 wow... hopefully the GFS folds to THIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The 00z GFS is terrible for snow and cold lovers down here. Pattern change may have happened but it doesn't matter as the Pacific is still dominating. If the pacific doesn't change it's look you can kiss winter goodbye -NAO or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The 00z GFS is terrible for snow and cold lovers down here. Pattern change may have happened but it doesn't matter as the Pacific is still dominating. If the pacific doesn't change it's look you can kiss winter goodbye -NAO or not. Yes, the pattern will most likely remain zonal with the neutral enso conditions. still might get a few surprises though, but that's me wishcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 wow... hopefully the GFS folds to THIS. Looks like the same lakes cutter garbage to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Canadian looks like a winter storm for NC into VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Looks like the same lakes cutter garbage to me. read my reply to your last post haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Euro is def colder for christmas thru the 26th, 850 0c line right on the sc/nc border from about 168hr to 216hr. At 240 the cold is more pronounced than the 00z gfs over the midwest. OKC gets hammered this run with a very white xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Canadian looks like a winter storm for NC into VA. When? Everything looks like cold rain to me, not even close...Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Close, but no cigar for most of us per this run of the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 the euro is CRAZY. ULL forms near TX and a low forming over the gulf and a high pressure to the north at NY. CAD event with this system for NC even with temps being above 0c at 850. Euro is deff a weenie run, but still plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 00Z ECMWF has low in Gulf with a 1035 mb high building in east of the Apps...a classic winter storm setup. It looks to me like the 850 temps are too warm for the setup the model is showing. No reason for 850 temps to warm from -14C to 0C in the Ohio Valley with a Canadian high building in. So while this run isn't totally correct in my view, it continues to support the southern track due to more pronounced blocking to the north. If this blocking is absent per the GFS, then an inland track will happen. If we do get a west-based neg NAO, I firmly believe tonight's ECMWF run will be much closer to how this potential storm will end up tracking. Heck of a Euro run. It has that re-inforcing cold shot in the 144-192 timeframe that is a must. Big differences continue between it and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Close, but no cigar for most of us per this run of the CMC. the placement of the high look suspicious. looking at the upper level maps i would expect it to be more north. and if that's the case, there would be more cold air and the inversion would not erode as fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Jmo but the cmc looks nothing close to a winter storm threat around here. Looks like a lakes cutter or an apps runner. What the heck are you guys seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Looks like an IP/ZR storm on the cmc, but only in most favored CAD areas of the northern foothills, up into VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 00Z ECMWF has low in Gulf with a 1035 mb high building in east of the Apps...a classic winter storm setup. It looks to me like the 850 temps are too warm for the setup the model is showing. No reason for 850 temps to warm from -14C to 0C in the Ohio Valley with a Canadian high building in. So while this run isn't totally correct in my view, it continues to support the southern track due to more pronounced blocking to the north. If this blocking is absent per the GFS, then an inland track will happen. If we do get a west-based neg NAO, I firmly believe tonight's ECMWF run will be much closer to how this potential storm will end up tracking. Good post, I agree. ECMWF dropped the Rockies system substantiall south, in response to all that blocking Canada, which fits with what should happen meteorologically. The big question is that 50/50 vortex, and if its going to be there at that time. The Euro has had major problems with verifying on those lately, really big problems for it, so right now I'd be cautious of it really being there. But if it is, and there's a cutoff high to it's north, then west, then that really is an old fashioned winter storm look for western NC for sure, possibly upstate SC and ne GA regions with strong damming under a 1035 high in western New York, and another high on the west side of the Apps, so an inverted trough. The GFS doesn't fall for that vortex very long and sweeps it on out, and allows the low to pull north in the Plains. GGEM is a blend. So right now, I guess most folks would root for that vortex to be there and to be very strong, as it would allow snow to sleet and some ice from northern Ark, across northern TN to the damming regions in the East atleast. Either way, this could be the beginning of a much more Wintry pattern, but it's too early to say until we've really seen the vortex verify. Long range GFS has some split flow and PNA ridging and many events toward the end of the year into the early new year. And the CFSv2 looks very cold much of the Country in January, with a warm Alaska and warm eastern Canada, which would do the Southeast and TENN Valley well, but again, that's too far out until we see actual fruits from the initial pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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