bhamwx205 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Euro ENS looks like cold chasing rain to me for Christmas week then it turns warm again. And at 00z they will be different lol.... im assuming they look better than the gfs which is not saying much. Is there a storm in the 26-29th time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 THIS MAY CREATE A MORE SPRING-LIKE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT mmm First mention of spring. Birds chirping, flowers and warm breezes. mmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 And at 00z they will be different lol.... im assuming they look better than the gfs which is not saying much. Is there a storm in the 26-29th time? It is showing a storm but looked like all rain...granted I might be missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 18z GFS looks great in the LR....split flow with snow at the very end of the run...of course it's at hour 372. As for the storm for Christmas week nothing but rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 18z GFS looks great in the LR....split flow with snow at the very end of the run...of course it's at hour 372. As for the storm for Christmas week nothing but rain. How cold of a rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 It is showing a storm but looked like all rain...granted I might be missing something. Your are right, for now it's heading to the lakes. It's 240 hours out so it will change a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 How cold of a rain? 50's and 60's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 18z GFS looks great in the LR....split flow with snow at the very end of the run...of course it's at hour 372. As for the storm for Christmas week nothing but rain. same old same old everytime the maps show snow then its rain but the maps the next week show snow again. we get our hopes up just to be shattered again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 50's and 60's we need the storm supressed more to the south and east so we're on the cold side of the storm, maybe in due time the models will flip again, at least thats in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 18z GFS isn't bad at all. The 27th/28th system is there and takes a track just too far inland for snow. If it treks 200miles further south it would be a big storm, nice precip totals for SC/NC/GA. All signs point to there being a system in that time frame, I'll take our chances with the exact track and cold especially seeing as we are still 272hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 ^ You really want to see the GFS suppress the heck of of that system at that range as opposed to having it too far inland already...just taking into account the model bias. We need to see cold squashing everything on the GFS. That's what we want to see out in la la land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 we need the storm supressed more to the south and east so we're on the cold side of the storm, maybe in due time the models will flip again, at least thats in our favor. I think the GFS is having a hard time with the current pattern. Not saying we're going to get a huge winter storm but I do think there will be more of a high pressure to the north with a decent CAD setup. We need to see how the next couple of model runs proceed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 GFS continues its run to run inconsistency...so I guess this is not really surprising tbh. Maybe if it continues to show 50+ degree rain consistently, we can consider it more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The 500mb pattern is not looking good for a Christmas storm. the low is over MI which means the only hope would be for a Ana Frontal system to happen so a transition to snow could be observed on the back edge of the front. From the QPF chart it suggests a Kata Frontal system. This would mean the precip would be ahead of the cold front. The flow looks to be pretty zonal after the passage too. But it's only one model run, nothing to panic over yet. Edit: just looked at the 18z ensembles and pattern looks disturbingly zonal toward the end of the run. crossing fingers future runs trend towards more digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 None of the details for the week of Christmas can be trusted until the system this week comes through and sets up the 50/50 low (or not). Until then, I will take each model run with a grain of salt and trust those on here who know more than I do. Ultimately, the pattern is projected to be wetter than the past month (can't be any drier) and we will see if the cold air comes. A well placed high would be an icy mess, the perfect track could be a great snowstorm, or we could get a cold rain. I have a hard time believing that a system would cut to the lakes with the blocking getting established so I'm ruling out severe weather and warm rain for my backyard. Here's to another wild week of weather modeling! Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 GFS height patterns over NA keep undergoing changes once you get out about a week in time. One of those changes has now brought a very cold look to the area from about Fri through Christmas. As for the Christmas storm, it's about half and half cutter vs sliding under us on the ens. Good to see the Euro move back away from the massive warm cutter it had on its prior run. I think we are about as good as we can get this far out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Not with the path of that low and the crappy pattern and high heights. We aren't that close, perhaps only if by virtue of the fact that it's getting close to mid-winter. We'll see how it unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Brier Creek Wx That was good reading. Thank you for taking the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 This was written by Phil Badgett whom I consider the best winter wx forecaster at the NWS-RAH based on my year spent working there as a SCEP. He is recognizing the same pattern features as some of the mets on here are, and this isn't to say it is going to happen but there are favorable players on the field. that was written before the 18z gfs came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 that was written before the 18z gfs came out. I don't think it matters. I think most are looking at the euro at this time. The GFS has been showing big differences from run to run. I bet tonight (0z) will be no different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I don't think it matters. I think most are looking at the euro at this time. The GFS has been showing big differences from run to run. I bet tonight (0z) will be no different. yea, we can pick and choose which model to follow to suit our fantasies. but in reality, the GFS and CFS are on the same boat. and we have to include those solutions into our forecast to get a good idea of what will happen. choosing one model and worshiping it will ultimately lead to failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 A good forecaster isn't going to change his/her opinion for better or worse based on one model run -- especially not the 06z or 18z GFS! Folks it's called pattern recognition, the models don't dictate where an upper low will track, or how much confluence is going to be present over the northeast, the patterns do! That point is very hard to sell in here. Mood SWINGS every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 A good forecaster isn't going to change his/her opinion for better or worse based on one model run -- especially not the 06z or 18z GFS! Folks it's called pattern recognition, the models don't dictate where an upper low will track, or how much confluence is going to be present over the northeast, the patterns do! I agree. Also, how often do winter storms in the South-East get modeled perfectly 10+ days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I don't think it matters. I think most are looking at the euro at this time. The GFS has been showing big differences from run to run. I bet tonight (0z) will be no different. **Edited for clarification** I would hope meteorologists are not running there forecast one run at a time. This was in response to the comment you were replying to Falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 yea, we can pick and choose which model to follow to suit our fantasies. but in reality, the GFS and CFS are on the same boat. and we have to include those solutions into our forecast to get a good idea of what will happen. choosing one model and worshiping it will ultimately lead to failure. Come on man, it's 10 days out. Nobody uses an op run of any model to forecast 10 days out. Who cares what the 18z op run shows for this storm but a few weenies. It will change over the next 40 runs before the storm, If there even is a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 A good forecaster isn't going to change his/her opinion for better or worse based on one model run -- especially not the 06z or 18z GFS! Folks it's called pattern recognition, the models don't dictate where an upper low will track, or how much confluence is going to be present over the northeast, the patterns do! Really? Who said i was negating patterns? did you read my post on banter? sound like we are latching on to models to suit our thoughts. tell me how a stacked low over michigan will provide snow to the southeast. i would really like to know. and also explain how strong upperlevel divergence can result out of a zonal flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 **Edited for clarification** I would hope meteorologists are not running there forecast one run at a time. This was in response to the comment you were replying to Falls. I agree, as BrierCreek just stated it's understanding the pattern. One model may be catching the "real" solution better than another. Not saying that model will be right, but at this time may have more weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Really? Who said i was negating patterns? did you read my post on banter? sound like we are latching on to models to suit our thoughts. tell me how a stacked low over michigan will provide snow to the southeast. i would really like to know. and also explain how strong upperlevel divergence can result out of a zonal flow. Just stop the nonsense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Just stop the nonsense! I'm just asking a question. asking a question is part of the scientific process, it's not nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Really? Who said i was negating patterns? did you read my post on banter? sound like we are latching on to models to suit our thoughts. tell me how a stacked low over michigan will provide snow to the southeast. i would really like to know. and also explain how strong upperlevel divergence can result out of a zonal flow. I may be missing something, but who is forecasting snow for the southeast, especially this far out? I'm not a met, but I understand what BrierCreek is talking about with a pattern recognition as opposed to latching on to intimate details a model run is showing outside of 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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