NC_hailstorm Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 This 18z run splits the PV in the 30hPa on about day 13 briefly but neither piece goes into Greenland.One piece goes into northern Norway,other into Asia.They redevelop and the whole thing goes to Siberia. Enormous strat ridge coming across Canada,moving slowly east with warming/blocking headed toward Greenland. Just one possible solution so I'll keep watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The ULL between Maine and the GL's is key, if that's in that position it holds the west coast ridge in a favorable spot and suppresses the storm path. And of course helps deliver the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I haven't done very detailed research. Yes, the winter is a pretty wet season in atl. However, what I mean is that the median amount of precip. with the temp. 32 or less plus S/IP at above 32 is only about 2% of the total liquid (~0.40" out of ~18" for DJFM). For RDU, it is more like 5%, a much more respectable %. I have not analyzed the % of hours with precip. at 32 or less vs. that for 33+. However, I would educ. guess it would be quite a but lower. Wouldn't you? Lol. My what a wry sense of humor, you have there I know for a fact you get lots more liquid falling at 33 than anything lower, lol. I've only see the one time where prodigious amounts, over 2 to 3 inches was frozen. I was wondering about the average rain days in Jan. over the span of 50 or 100 years. Long enough sample to take in drought and plenty. Seems like Jan. since it gets more rain, but maybe over the long average, shallower sustained cold, while the snow pack builds, gets more zrain, because marginal cold and longer rainy periods have a chance for timing. Feb....the snow pack is built, winter is in full sway, less rain, but more snow because of deeper cold, for timing with the moisture.... which isn't that far off the Jan. totals. If you average 12 rain days, and the temps are in the upper 30's to around 30, for 20 days average, you are going to get a lot more zrain...if you get something at all... if the temps drop from e cooling, re enforced cad, or whatever. If you get a @alls to the walls, super high, you just get the cold dry. Except, of course, for the SnoJam where the temps were down in the 10's and a low still came up. Don't see that very often. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 My take on things is that there's growing consensus that something big may happen at or after the 25th. I haven't seen the GFS ensemble members for 18z yet but someone else mentioned there was support from the 12z Euro on something happening at that time frame? Anyway, like I said before, the long range is going to be hazy until the next two fronts move through (late this weekend and next Thursday/Friday), but front 2 of the list will be much colder than front 1, and will likely for me be the coldest airmass of the season. MRX is forecasting low 40s but we hit a high in the low 40s with a much warmer profile a short while ago - and verbatim it looks like mid 30s for highs ending with snow showers (nothing sticking in the valley). There could be a good measurable snow in the mountains and in the NE part of TN and the NC mountains with the system on Friday though. There has been consistently some sort of storm in most of the runs lately for the 25th through 28th - so the GFS is basically telling us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 It would be nice if that wasn't shown 8+ days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 From Wow 11/18, which was the start of a new thread: "The models have been hinting at an emerging pattern change for the end of November and into December for the past few days." We had an outright torch during the period he was addressing...just about the opposite of what he was implying was about to occur. The model consensus has been really bad in the cold direction. I wasn't implying it, the models were at the time in the long range. Obviously, the models in the 11-15 day range failed for those few runs. They aren't people trying to fool you. Not sure what your point is playing the wise cynic all of a sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I wasn't implying it, the models were at the time in the long range. Obviously, the models in the 11-15 day range failed for those few runs. They aren't people trying to fool you. Not sure what your point is playing the wise cynic all of a sudden. I do get GAWX's point. However, there is light at the end of the tunnel. Many are still suffering from the effects of last year's winter, but I think there is already more to follow now that what we had all of last winter. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I wasn't implying it, the models were at the time in the long range. Obviously, the models in the 11-15 day range failed for those few runs. They aren't people trying to fool you. Not sure what your point is playing the wise cynic all of a sudden. I think the heat must have gotten to him. That's not like him at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 That map you linked to only has 0 and -2 850s in NC. Maybe down to -6 in the extreme NW corner. I think you meant this map, but it's for Sunday, 12/23, rather than Christmas Eve: Go back and check. The link is correct and shows -12, -14 850's on Christmas EVE in northern NC. Use the legend out to the side. This map you posted is 12/23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Go back and check. The link is correct and shows -12, -14 850's on Christmas EVE in northern NC. Use the legend out to the side. This map you posted is 12/23. My apologies. I just realized what was wrong. My browser was storing an older run of the ECMWF. I clicked on the link again, got the same old picture, and was convinced you had it all messed up. Then, I remembered that I didn't attempt to refresh the image once I clicked on the link. I went back to the link and then refreshed the page: Voila! Now, I can see the correct image. Again, my fault. User error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 My apologies. I just realized what was wrong. My browser was storing an older run of the ECMWF. I clicked on the link again, got the same old picture, and was convinced you had it all messed up. Then, I remembered that I didn't attempt to refresh the image once I clicked on the link. I went back to the link and then refreshed the page: Voila! Now, I can see the correct image. Again, my fault. User error. No big deal. Just savor it, because knowing our luck it will change in 2 hours when 0z comes out. I'm feeling confident in getting some below normal temps in our neck of the woods over the Christmas holllidays. Not sure if it will hold out to and past New years yet, that will be another week or so before I would go out on a limb and make that call. We need to cash in and get some winter precip. This will be the fist window of oppurtunity this season for those of us east of the apps. Not sure how many window of oppurtunities will present theirself the next 80 days, Hopefully several, but you never know. Best News now is we are under the 10 day stigma on all models for Cold. It's getting closer and not forever out in lalala land getting pushed back futher and futher in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I wasn't implying it, the models were at the time in the long range. Obviously, the models in the 11-15 day range failed for those few runs. They aren't people trying to fool you. Not sure what your point is playing the wise cynic all of a sudden. 1) Of course, they're not. However, there is such a thing as a model bias that tends to cause a repeating pattern of errors in the same direction. Do you think that a model bias will suddenly disappear easily? The GFS has been god awful for many runs that covered the first half of Dec. (partially exhibited by your own thread ironically enough), and I know it was bad back in Oct. on a good number of runs that gave KATL a first freeze in Oct.. Two runs actually gave KATL 28, which would have tied the alltime record Oct. low! The coldest KATL got in Oct. was only 40. The first freeze wasn't until 11/25. KATL still hasn't been lower than 30. There have numerous runs that have been too cold and fewer runs that have been too warm based both on my recollection as well as based on actual bias measurements. 2) I'm reminding folks to be wary about the colder runs because they haven't been verifying at least back to Oct. in the SE US. What is the problem with that? I'm not just pulling this out of thin air. I'm basing it on careful observation. I don't just make stuff up for the heck of it. There'd be no point and I'd also lose credibility as an objective poster. Be that as it may, I'm hoping that the cold bias has been reduced so that we finally get sustained cold. However, if it has not, there will be more disappointments. 3) I'm hopeful we will finally get into a cold pattern for the last week in Dec. If not, I'm definitely hopeful about January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Not surprising the 0z GFS was different, the ULL was farther north allowing the systems to cut inland more. If we get blocking the SE/MA has a great chance because system after system is rolling in from the pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The 00z is taking each storm and shoving it out to sea. This is a possibility, but expect the models to waffle until the front on Friday blows through. The good news is the GFS is seeing cold in the north and a lot of energy and moisture going across the southern US. It also looks like snow in East TN and western NC is a good possibility after this front on Friday. No accumulations in the valleys, I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 If that upper low doesn't drop off the Cali coast and pump the western NAmer ridging, you don't get the downstream trough you need in the east. Models have been on and off with this over the past few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 00z was a dud, the 12/28 system took almost the same track, cutting inland from the FL panhandle to eastern NC. Temps are way too warm for anything, we need this thing to trek south. As packbacker said, the pattern (shortwave wise) is good, with system after system rolling through. We just need blocking and we would be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 If that upper low doesn't drop off the Cali coast and pump the western NAmer ridging, you don't get the downstream trough you need in the east. Models have been on and off with this over the past few days Yeah, the signal for a sizeable event is good, whether that's rain or snow is tbd, But the biggest difference that run was no ridging in the west. The block was slightly different, main thing is how many chances we will have all the way into the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Okay, so basically what I'm hearing is that even if it snows, if you're not far inland or in the hills, you have no chance at snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Okay, so basically what I'm hearing is that even if it snows, if you're not far inland or in the hills, you have no chance at snow? If you take the models verbatim, yes. But it is very promising that the models are showing a system(s) thru Christmas week. We have a good pattern for precip, now we just need to get the timing of the cold to coincide with a system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The 0Z Euro is already coming in warmer early in the 6-10 vs. the 12Z Euro. Also, I can already tell from upstream (including Canada) that the rest of the 6-10 is going to come in MUCH warmer than the 12Z Euro. These are facts, not a figment of my imagination. Don't shoot the messenger. I'm already wounded from earlier today lol. So, there is STILL no clearcut model support for when an actual steady cold pattern will start as it keeps getting delayed. Edit: - coldest 850 for RDU on 12Z Sat. Euro: -13 C - coldest 850 for RDU on 0Z Sun. Euro: -6 C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The models are going all over the place for the last week of the month especially, changing from run to run.... it would be great to see some consistency, but i dont think thats going to happen in this topsy turvy pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Man! Dealing with a thunderstorm in Raleigh at 3:21am in the morning. I still hope we get the Winter Storm soon, we have had enough summer type weather this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 2) I'm reminding folks to be wary about the colder runs because they haven't been verifying at least back to Oct. in the SE US. What is the problem with that? I'm not just pulling this out of thin air. I'm basing it on careful observation. I don't just make stuff up for the heck of it. There'd be no point and I'd also lose credibility as an objective poster. Be that as it may, I'm hoping that the cold bias has been reduced so that we finally get sustained cold. However, if it has not, there will be more disappointments. 3) I'm hopeful we will finally get into a cold pattern for the last week in Dec. If not, I'm definitely hopeful about January. Gotta admit, I agree. The fact that nothing is showing up in say the 4 - 5 day period is discouraging, hopefully the Euro gets on board because right now it's flipping and flopping. GFS is stuck in the "You'll be happy @240 I swear" for every run it seems....and now the last couple of runs have been leading away from an awesome track to just blah. 6z has a disturbance at around the 26th but now it's too warm and isn't until hour 300 that the major pattern change has really occurred for us in the SE. Two things to take away from this are though that the Euro ENS continues to be somewhat cold and the GFS is a at least still saying there will be cold air for consistent runs. Oh and a third thing, it is still December at least for Charlotte we didn't have a white Christmas in 40 years until 2010 and here we are somewhat excited that there is a chance this Christmas. We were no where close last year. Perhaps today is the day it all turns around and the models all show major cold coming early in the run instead of out in La La Land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 6z GFS came in colder for the day 7 > period. The 0z had a low near the lakes allowing for more air flow from the SW. This run allows the high up in Canada to push towards the SE. Not a major push but it does come. Man, these models can drive you crazy. I know the details will depict differently from run to run; especially in later forcast times. But these are big pattern differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Just like the last few years no model can be trusted until within 5 days. No since in watching every run. You will be up and down every time until that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 We wait... I see way too much Pacific zonal that is keeping indications of primary tracks north of us. Hoping to get the cold to step down in January and something come our way. Last week of December cold is still unfortunately questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Just like the last few years no model can be trusted until within 5 days. No since in watching every run. You will be up and down every time until that range. If we don't watch every run we will never know when it's within five days! Come on man, we see you here after every model run... Lol the cold is just 10 days out!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Man! Dealing with a thunderstorm in Raleigh at 3:21am in the morning. I still hope we get the Winter Storm soon, we have had enough summer type weather this year! I heard it around 2:45. Really surprised me. It'll be interesting to see what happens 10 days later, and that is the timeframe that everyone is looking at right now for possible winter weather here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 You folks may want to keep an eye on the Wednesday into Thursday time frame. Looks like a Severe setup may develop across potions of the Deep South. With the Holidays approaching and folks busy with travel and festivities, some may not be following things as closely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 You folks may want to keep an eye on the Wednesday into Thursday time frame. Looks like a Severe setup may develop across potions of the Deep South. With the Holidays approaching and folks busy with travel and festivities, some may not be following things as closely... Thanks for the heads up. Certainly looks to be a lot of rain on tap and with the cold front coming through it could be trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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