December Forecast Discussion

[burgertime]

Well the Euro keeps the SE cold for Christmas...also has some energy making it's way east though it's hard to tell if the cold will stay entrenched. Not too bad from the Euro, the ENS should be telling for the 26th time frame.

[metalicwx366]

I only see cold for the SE at 144 hours on the Euro. Then it looks like it warms up for the SE. The sustained cold is up in the NE and Midwest.

[burgertime]

I only see cold for the SE at 144 hours on the Euro. Then it looks like it warms up for the SE. The sustained cold is up in the NE and Midwest.

From 144 on 2m temps only get into the 50's once at least for NC anyways and much of the SE stays in the 40's. No "vodka cold" but indeed the Euro is at least winter time cold for much of the SE.

[GaWx]

So far the Euro has held serve with the cold weather Days 6-8...

Be wary. Even though the run is still overall quite cold in the 6-10, it is a quite a bit warmer on 12/22, which was the coldest day on the 0Z Euro. Now the coldest at RDU has been delayed til 12/23-4. Be wary of Lucy and take with a huge grain and hope for the best. It helps that it is the Euro and not the gfs. But still, be wary of the mirage effect.

[Marion_NC_WX]

For the Interior Southeast (I-20 and North)...that's a decent run of average winter-time cold with the coldest being in the usual spots (SoApps/I-40 Cooridor)

[tarheelwx]

Be wary. Even though the run is still overall quite cold in the 6-10, it is a quite a bit warmer on 12/22, which was the coldest day on the 0Z Euro. Now the coldest at RDU has been delayed til 12/23-4. Be wary of Lucy and take with a huge grain and hope for the best. It helps that it is the Euro and not the gfs. But still, be wary of the mirage effect.

Perfect timing as the moisture will have fresh cold air to work with!

[GaWx]

I'll never forget that spot of cold. Epic around here. Had to leave Columbia where we were on a Xmas visit to get home to save the pipes..oops, to late But we did save the new born kittens, so it was the right decision...as the depth of the cold had been underestimated..

I'm worried about Joe. I don't know if there are any volcanos on Tahiti, but something is keeping him there

I still like the look after Xmas for some ice shennigans, or at least some nice cold rain.

Larry..have you ever done research on actual rain day averages, during the rainy season, around here? You say normal cold is dry, but surely in the rainy months we get a number of wet days? I'd hate to think a few good gom lows fills the quota, and the rest is 23 to 43 and dry. And danged if I don't remember lots of 33 and rain disappointments. In fact, I sort of accepted that was the norm T

I haven't done very detailed research. Yes, the winter is a pretty wet season in atl. However, what I mean is that the median amount of precip. with the temp. 32 or less plus S/IP at above 32 is only about 2% of the total liquid (~0.40" out of ~18" for DJFM). For RDU, it is more like 5%, a much more respectable %. I have not analyzed the % of hours with precip. at 32 or less vs. that for 33+. However, I would educ. guess it would be quite a but lower. Wouldn't you?

[griteater]

Euro looks good for Christmas week across the upper south. It's not perfect, but not a mirage either.

[Wow]

Be wary. Even though the run is still overall quite cold in the 6-10, it is a quite a bit warmer on 12/22, which was the coldest day on the 0Z Euro. Now the coldest at RDU has been delayed til 12/23-4. Be wary of Lucy and take with a huge grain and hope for the best. It helps that it is the Euro and not the gfs. But still, be wary of the mirage effect.

The next time you mention Lucy i'm giving you a gigantic eyeroll.

[GaWx]

The next time you mention Lucy i'm giving you a gigantic eyeroll.

Why? It is the perfect analogy of what has been occuring. Don't shoot the messenger. The GFS has had a strong cold bias. I could give an eyeroll to your posts going back several weeks about the coming cold after Tgiving when we had a torch. You even started an entire thread about it. You don't think the models have been fooling people?

From Wow 11/18:

"The models have been hinting at an emerging pattern change for the end of November and into December for the past few days."

Yes, we had a pattern change.....to a torch! You were implying colder, not warmer.

[tarheelwx]

Why? It is the perfect analogy of what has been occuring. Don't shoot the messenger. The GFS has had a strong cold bias. I could give an eyeroll to your posts going back several weeks about the coming cold after Tgiving when we had a torch.

I think the flaw in your analogy is that in fact, the pattern is changing. Not everyone was expecting vodka cold - just seasonal cold with some opportunity for winter weather. Now if we were still in the 60's and 70's each day with no change in sight, I'd say the analogy was perfect. Maybe a better analogy has to do with moving the goal posts - though we are getting ever closer.

TW

[GaWx]

I think the flaw in your analogy is that in fact, the pattern is changing. Not everyone was expecting vodka cold - just seasonal cold with some opportunity for winter weather. Now if we were still in the 60's and 70's each day with no change in sight, I'd say the analogy was perfect. Maybe a better analogy has to do with moving the goal posts - though we are getting ever closer.

TW

From Wow 11/18, which was the start of a new thread:

"The models have been hinting at an emerging pattern change for the end of November and into December for the past few days."

We had an outright torch during the period he was addressing...just about the opposite of what he was implying was about to occur. The model consensus has been really bad in the cold direction.

[tarheelwx]

From Wow 11/18, which was the start of a new thread:

"The models have been hinting at an emerging pattern change for the end of November and into December for the past few days."

We had an outright torch during the period he was addressing...just about the opposite of what he was implying was about to occur.

I agree, but the weather has been quite different the past few days vs. the first 10 days of december. In fact, the last few mornings have been in the 20's here in Colfax. Yesterday morning it was 21. Quite a change from upper 30's/low 40's. I guess maybe Charlie Brown got a piece of the ball before Lucy could get it out of the way completely.

TW

[franklin NCwx]

From Wow 11/18, which was the start of a new thread:

"The models have been hinting at an emerging pattern change for the end of November and into December for the past few days."

We had an outright torch during the period he was addressing...just about the opposite of what he was implying was about to occur. The model consensus has been really bad in the cold direction.

Correct, it did change. We went from a below normal month to a warm beginning in Dec.

[AUProud]

Hey, neighbor! I'm over in Spalding. And Psalm is in Meriwether Co. Hope you heal up quick, so you can go sledding if we get lucky. Watch what Larry says. If he gets excited we might have a chance down here. And CandyMan is a fun met south of you in Columbus, and Delta down in Macon. We've got some good mets in Ga. that keep us covered. Dawson, north of Atl... and if Cheeze says no, then probably not Lookout, over near Athens can tell us what the column is doing, and it is so helpful in seeing the possibilities when the storm nears. I think he actually lives in the column since he knows so much about it. Keep reading..if something is coming you'll know way before the rest of the world. And post your observations. That's always helpful. T

Great info! Thanks so much!

[GaWx]

I agree, but the weather has been quite different the past few days vs. the first 10 days of december. In fact, the last few mornings have been in the 20's here in Colfax. Yesterday morning it was 21. Quite a change from upper 30's/low 40's. I guess maybe Charlie Brown got a piece of the ball before Lucy could get it out of the way completely.

TW

Ok, maybe I'd be better calling it a partial Lucy or moving the goalposts. Yes, we're clearly stepping down to a colder pattern. Furthermore, a quite cold period may be approaching. As a matter of fact, ensemble runs are even hinting at a nice +PNA dominated pattern as we approach Jan. So, I'm quite hopeful. However, I'm still taking the actual model runs with a huge grain as the real cold keeps getting delayed. At some point, it will very likely finally get here and fun/games could then start. I continue to be hopeful that Jan. turns out to be a fun month. With luck, the last week of Dec. could be fun, too.

[NCSNOW]

Cold Christmas Eve/Day shaping up. Looks like -14/850's in NC. Brr!

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS216.gif

[Carvers Gap]

KTRI is at +7.5. If the rest of the month doesn't eat into that quite a bit, this winter is going to be on the plus side. I am not sure of this, but I would think that the start to December would have to be a top 10 warm one. We were at +10 a few days ago. I still think that true arctic air stays West for a while. The models continue to hint at cold coming east in the long range. Do we finally get a cold outbreak that is unseasonably cold, I don't know? The ensemble teleconnectors from CPC look to trend to neutral. As some have opined, I would think that may signal a storm during the next ten days. Might be what we need to shake this pattern. If the NAO goes positive to end December, that is obviously not good for January.

[BristowWx]

Cold Christmas Eve/Day shaping up. Looks like -14/850's in NC. Brr!

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS216.gif

Doesn't that look like a good setup for a MA/upper SE winter event maybe day after Xmas? I am not a great model reader but if that LP in Canada stays put it might keep the cold and supress the PAC energy....but that is just a wild notion.

[DCMetroWinston]

Cold Christmas Eve/Day shaping up. Looks like -14/850's in NC. Brr!

http://raleighwx.ame...mbTSLPUS216.gif

Looks like a classic configuration wherein Northeast NC and the Triangle are in the sweet spot of the cold plunge more than the Triad and NW NC.

[tarheelwx]

DT still on the bandwagon for something just after Christmas.

TW

[calculus1]

Cold Christmas Eve/Day shaping up. Looks like -14/850's in NC. Brr!

http://raleighwx.ame...mbTSLPUS216.gif

That map you linked to only has 0 and -2 850s in NC. Maybe down to -6 in the extreme NW corner. I think you meant this map, but it's for Sunday, 12/23, rather than Christmas Eve:

[Southern Track]

Finally getting some agreement here.

[tarheelwx]

DT says Euro @ 288 slams KY, VA, MD and DE with a major snowstorm. NC is snow to ice. ULL goes over Charlotte. Best snows WV, VA, MD, and N NC. He isn't predicting this per se, but states it is what this model states at this time.

TW

[packbacker]

18z GFS is Boxing Day part duex...,severe weenie run.

[BristowWx]

18z GFS is Boxing Day part duex...,severe weenie run.

Caution...264hr is not for those with a weak heart.

[jmundie]

Somehow nashville gets shafted qpf wise on that run. Must be right in the process of phasing as it passes to our south.

If we can get that elongated vortex and the nao ridge holds, then many of us are gonna see some chances. The pattern looks similar to jan 88

Edited - because I typed 85 and totally meant 88.

[LithiaWx]

18z GFS is Boxing Day part duex...,severe weenie run.

Verbatim WNC would get hit hard with snow. I would love to see the frames between 252 and 264

[DopplerWx]

Wow, an apps runner on the 23rd, then a big daddy on the 26th and runs inland, western nc looks like the sweet spot. Just need that low to trend further south t get central sc/nc in on the action.

EDIT: Wowza, an absolute bomb, goes from 993mb at 264hrs over eastern nc to 968mb at 276hrs off the NE coast.

[WilkesboroDude]

boom