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December Forecast Discussion

Wow

By Wow,
in Southeastern States

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tonysc

tonysc

Posted
Posted

Well lets hope we get a shot at some frozen stuff over the holidays. But if we can't get any of the white stuff maybe we can take a shot at going for the Coldest Christmas on record. Tough task since in 1983 Raleigh had a high of 19 and low of 0. This was with full sun. I remember this bone chilling vodka cold outbreak. Ponds, rivers, sounds everything was frozen. Here is a list of all the weather stations in NC and their Christmas records warmest,coldest, precip e.t.c. Just scroll down to find after opening link. How bout Lake Toxaway with close to 5 inches (rain i'm guessing) on 12/25/09.

http://www.nc-climat...r=coldest_value

MIA/amber alert: Where is weathernc and snowjoe. Gonna miss weathernc input and joe's ob's if/when we actually get some winter weather to chase.

Yeah seems more and more mets are coming into agreement that the cold will be coming by Christmas, just maybe we can get into a stormy pattern around the same time. Yeah I do remember Christmas of '83. Went outside to shoot off our traditional fireworks around 10pm on Christmas Eve and it was already in the single digits here in the Upstate of SC......we lasted about 10 minutes and that was it.

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jburns

jburns

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Posted

Yeah seems more and more mets are coming into agreement that the cold will be coming by Christmas, just maybe we can get into a stormy pattern around the same time. Yeah I do remember Christmas of '83. Went outside to shoot off our traditional fireworks around 10pm on Christmas Eve and it was already in the single digits here in the Upstate of SC......we lasted about 10 minutes and that was it.

Nothing says manger quite like explosives! :guitar:

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Where is everyone this morning? Sleeping it off? The Euro looks cold in the medium and long range. Nice little bit of PNA ridging finally.

Sleeping in... But I like the the look of the 6z GFS. Shows a possible x-mas CAD event. Still too far out for details but we do know that there would have been an inital hit of cold air (low dewpts in place) and now if we can get a system to build to the south and get a high set to the north....who knows...

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Sleeping in... But I like the the look of the 6z GFS. Shows a possible x-mas CAD event. Still too far out for details but we do know that there would have been an inital hit of cold air (low dewpts in place) and now if we can get a system to build to the south and get a high set to the north....who knows...

Yep, I'm glad we're finally getting some consistency with respect to the cold air coming. I want to see a nice, strong HP build in across the Lakes, rather than come straight out of Canada and slam down to the Gulf like an anvil. We get that look, and we're in business!

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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Posted

Calm before the storm(HA). Yea I was gonna be lazy and just knew I would get on here and see some 12z or 6z fantasy storm maps. Now I'm gonna have to go dig em up myself.

Haha! Yeah..I got on this morning and saw that it was still on the same page number as when I went to bed. AND the last post was by jburns. When I see the last post by jburns, I just assume a funny comment is going to be there when I click on it. So I was thinking it must have been a not-so-good model night. But I was wrong. It was a decent model night and there was a funny comment by jburns. :)

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FallsLake

FallsLake

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Yep, I'm glad we're finally getting some consistency with respect to the cold air coming. I want to see a nice, strong HP build in across the Lakes, rather than come straight out of Canada and slam down to the Gulf like an anvil. We get that look, and we're in business!

The nice thing about the models (lately) is that they do change solutions from run to run (which is normal in long range), but they are showing cold solutions. Yesterday it was very cold and dry for x-mas and today (6z) it's showing a possible CAD. At lunch today it might be snow.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

Cant get surface temps, specefics at hour 262ish on gfs ensembles/op. But in thumbing through everything 6z and 0z related IT goes hand in hand with what Brandon stated last night. With GFS OP it would be overruning ice, no doubt in CAD areas around 26th-27th. One thing that does stick out is the big front comes through Friday12/21 and behind this is a nice upslope followed a few days latter by another. So ski areas will be set for Christmas Hollidays. Pretty much a gurantee now. East of the mtns the time Brandon harped on 26th-27th has strong signals from all modelling. Here is a ensemble favorite.

06zensp002snow300.gif

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

On Christmas Day, with cold air entrenched, the Euro looks to pop a low right on the Carolinas. I know it's at the 240 range, but it does look like the Euro is pretty consistent in thinking we will have the cold available.

Hopefully, that'll pop right off the GA/FL coast and strengthen rapidly as it crawls slowly up the coast. :):snowman:

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jmundie

jmundie

Posted
Posted

Burger - it is doing what it always does, which is move the flow along too fast, and break down blocks too quickly. The storm for Tuesday is now a full 12 hours faster on the gfs.

For whatever reason though, the gfs seems to do ok past truncation with major players - it was the first to advertise the pna change, but from 72 hours on its generally garbage because the quickness of the flow causes strange things beyond that.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

The +PNA on the euro is probably too far east to be anything but transient, right?

The 216 panel has got the ridge in a good location, depending on how strong and diggy the S/W energy is. It looks like there is some northern stream energy and some southern stream energy. How they interact (if they're even real features) could make things quite interesting. The ridge does get a little far east by 240. Still quite chilly in the SE, but things look progressive at that time. That's just verbatim.

The 12Z GFS actually doesn't look quite as cold as the 0Z and the overall pattern looks different at times, but it still offers some possibilities. There's so much energy in the flow that you get virtually a different look each time the model runs. But generally, both the Euro and the GFS are more consistently looking quite a bit better than they did a week or two ago. At least there are some possibilities, though they might end up requiring more very, very good timing than we'd like to have to rely on.

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted

There is definitely some quirkiness in the last couple of days worth of runs. Yesterday the GFS had us in a relative deep freeze way down here around Christmas. Today's runs are much warmer for the same time period. Are the models having a hard time latching on to something?

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NC_hailstorm

NC_hailstorm

Posted
Posted

Getting mixed results on the strat runs.

12z run almost splits the PV at 30hPa and puts a very weak piece in Greenland which quickly gets pushed out.Stronger piece looks to go to Siberia though.Blocking still showing up in west central Canada.

No trend yet just have to keep watching but the last three runs haven't put a strong piece in Greenland,18z yesterday did.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Well lets hope we get a shot at some frozen stuff over the holidays. But if we can't get any of the white stuff maybe we can take a shot at going for the Coldest Christmas on record. Tough task since in 1983 Raleigh had a high of 19 and low of 0. This was with full sun. I remember this bone chilling vodka cold outbreak. Ponds, rivers, sounds everything was frozen. Here is a list of all the weather stations in NC and their Christmas records warmest,coldest, precip e.t.c. Just scroll down to find after opening link. How bout Lake Toxaway with close to 5 inches (rain i'm guessing) on 12/25/09.

http://www.nc-climat...r=coldest_value

MIA/amber alert: Where is weathernc and snowjoe. Gonna miss weathernc input and joe's ob's if/when we actually get some winter weather to chase.

I'll never forget that spot of cold. Epic around here. Had to leave Columbia where we were on a Xmas visit to get home to save the pipes..oops, to late :) But we did save the new born kittens, so it was the right decision...as the depth of the cold had been underestimated..

I'm worried about Joe. I don't know if there are any volcanos on Tahiti, but something is keeping him there :)

I still like the look after Xmas for some ice shennigans, or at least some nice cold rain.

Larry..have you ever done research on actual rain day averages, during the rainy season, around here? You say normal cold is dry, but surely in the rainy months we get a number of wet days? I'd hate to think a few good gom lows fills the quota, and the rest is 23 to 43 and dry. And danged if I don't remember lots of 33 and rain disappointments. In fact, I sort of accepted that was the norm :) T

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Getting mixed results on the strat runs.

12z run almost splits the PV at 30hPa and puts a very weak piece in Greenland which quickly gets pushed out.Stronger piece looks to go to Siberia though.Blocking still showing up in west central Canada.

No trend yet just have to keep watching but the last three runs haven't put a strong piece in Greenland,18z yesterday did.

Hey NC,

Not up enough on the strato stuff. Do we want a piece to go to Greenland, or would that make the warmth get out of hand?

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AUProud

AUProud

Posted
Posted

Hello folks, major weather weenie here. I wanted to tell all of you how much I enjoy this board. I am a pastor who has been sidelined for about two years due to cancer issues and treatment. I can't do a lot right now due to chronic pain so I have kept up with all your updates on a daily basis. I have learned a lot about weather and wanted to tell you thanks for keeping us informed. Like most of you I love the cold and snow. I live just south of Peachtree City Ga in Senoia, famous right now for the filming of The Walking Dead. So guys in major weather weenie style I have to ask...is it going to snow in my backyard this year? lol... God bless you all and I pray you have a happy, cold, snow filled Christmas!

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DixieBlizzard

DixieBlizzard

Posted
Posted

Hello folks, major weather weenie here. I wanted to tell all of you how much I enjoy this board. I am a pastor who has been sidelined for about two years due to cancer issues and treatment. I can't do a lot right now due to chronic pain so I have kept up with all your updates on a daily basis. I have learned a lot about weather and wanted to tell you thanks for keeping us informed. Like most of you I love the cold and snow. I live just south of Peachtree City Ga in Senoia, famous right now for the filming of The Walking Dead. So guys in major weather weenie style I have to ask...is it going to snow in my backyard this year? lol... God bless you all and I pray you have a happy, cold, snow filled Christmas!

My prayers to you AUProud. Best wishes to you this Christmas season and I am hopeful for continued success with your treatments.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

There is definitely some quirkiness in the last couple of days worth of runs. Yesterday the GFS had us in a relative deep freeze way down here around Christmas. Today's runs are much warmer for the same time period. Are the models having a hard time latching on to something?

Lucy has struck yet again. However, I'm not getting fooled as I keep mentioning taking the cold runs with a huge grain. In especially the GFS case, it has been due to a really bad cold bias. In this bad Pacific pattern, it keeps underestimating the warming influence of the Pacific and giving too much influence to the blocking on the cold runs. The cold runs have not been verifying. The warmer ones have. Really, the bias has been pretty bad since at least Oct. for the SE US. So, that's why I keep mentioning Lucy.

Let's compare today's 12Z at 168 hrs w/ yest.'s at 186 at RDU. OMG, the warmup is insanely huge!! The 18Z had a very cold -11C at 850. The 12Z now has a whopping +5, meaning the 168 map is warmer by 16C or 29F!!! The coldest at KATL in the 6-10 on the 18Z was -7C. The coldest on the 12Z in the 6-10 is a mere +1C!

This is reminding me a bit about the severe cold bias of 01-02, when I ws doing those cold bias tests at WWBB.

Edit: two gfs runs in mid Oct. got katl down to near the coldest on record in Oct. of ~28. Has katl even gotten that cold yet?

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
Posted

...GA THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS...

SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FROM GA THROUGH ERN

CAROLINAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDING THE PROGRESSIVE

SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSPORT MODIFIED CP AIR WITH

LOW 60S DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR CONTRIBUTING

TO DESTABILIZATION. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL /MLCAPE AOB 500

J/KG/ ESPECIALLY WITH NWD EXTENT INTO WARM SECTOR OWING TO

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE

DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG CONVEYOR BELT...AND MAY

UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS AND

DESTABILIZES. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG DEEP LAYER

WIND PROFILES...WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR

SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOWING STRUCTURES AND

SUPERCELLS. WILL INTRODUCE A 5% SEVERE COVERAGE AREA AT THIS TIME

DUE TO POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS IMPOSED BY THE EXPECTED MARGINAL

THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...AREA WILL BE RE-EVALUATED FOR A

POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK ON THE DAY 2 UPDATE.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Hello folks, major weather weenie here. I wanted to tell all of you how much I enjoy this board. I am a pastor who has been sidelined for about two years due to cancer issues and treatment. I can't do a lot right now due to chronic pain so I have kept up with all your updates on a daily basis. I have learned a lot about weather and wanted to tell you thanks for keeping us informed. Like most of you I love the cold and snow. I live just south of Peachtree City Ga in Senoia, famous right now for the filming of The Walking Dead. So guys in major weather weenie style I have to ask...is it going to snow in my backyard this year? lol... God bless you all and I pray you have a happy, cold, snow filled Christmas!

Hey, neighbor! I'm over in Spalding. And Psalm is in Meriwether Co. Hope you heal up quick, so you can go sledding if we get lucky. Watch what Larry says. If he gets excited we might have a chance down here. And CandyMan is a fun met south of you in Columbus, and Delta down in Macon. We've got some good mets in Ga. that keep us covered. Dawson, north of Atl... and if Cheeze says no, then probably not :) Lookout, over near Athens can tell us what the column is doing, and it is so helpful in seeing the possibilities when the storm nears. I think he actually lives in the column since he knows so much about it. Keep reading..if something is coming you'll know way before the rest of the world. And post your observations. That's always helpful. T

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