tonysc Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Well lets hope we get a shot at some frozen stuff over the holidays. But if we can't get any of the white stuff maybe we can take a shot at going for the Coldest Christmas on record. Tough task since in 1983 Raleigh had a high of 19 and low of 0. This was with full sun. I remember this bone chilling vodka cold outbreak. Ponds, rivers, sounds everything was frozen. Here is a list of all the weather stations in NC and their Christmas records warmest,coldest, precip e.t.c. Just scroll down to find after opening link. How bout Lake Toxaway with close to 5 inches (rain i'm guessing) on 12/25/09. http://www.nc-climat...r=coldest_value MIA/amber alert: Where is weathernc and snowjoe. Gonna miss weathernc input and joe's ob's if/when we actually get some winter weather to chase. Yeah seems more and more mets are coming into agreement that the cold will be coming by Christmas, just maybe we can get into a stormy pattern around the same time. Yeah I do remember Christmas of '83. Went outside to shoot off our traditional fireworks around 10pm on Christmas Eve and it was already in the single digits here in the Upstate of SC......we lasted about 10 minutes and that was it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Yeah seems more and more mets are coming into agreement that the cold will be coming by Christmas, just maybe we can get into a stormy pattern around the same time. Yeah I do remember Christmas of '83. Went outside to shoot off our traditional fireworks around 10pm on Christmas Eve and it was already in the single digits here in the Upstate of SC......we lasted about 10 minutes and that was it. Nothing says manger quite like explosives! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Where is everyone this morning? Sleeping it off? The Euro looks cold in the medium and long range. Nice little bit of PNA ridging finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Where is everyone this morning? Sleeping it off? The Euro looks cold in the medium and long range. Nice little bit of PNA ridging finally. Sleeping in... But I like the the look of the 6z GFS. Shows a possible x-mas CAD event. Still too far out for details but we do know that there would have been an inital hit of cold air (low dewpts in place) and now if we can get a system to build to the south and get a high set to the north....who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Where is everyone this morning? Sleeping it off? The Euro looks cold in the medium and long range. Nice little bit of PNA ridging finally. Calm before the storm(HA). Yea I was gonna be lazy and just knew I would get on here and see some 12z or 6z fantasy storm maps. Now I'm gonna have to go dig em up myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Sleeping in... But I like the the look of the 6z GFS. Shows a possible x-mas CAD event. Still too far out for details but we do know that there would have been an inital hit of cold air (low dewpts in place) and now if we can get a system to build to the south and get a high set to the north....who knows... Yep, I'm glad we're finally getting some consistency with respect to the cold air coming. I want to see a nice, strong HP build in across the Lakes, rather than come straight out of Canada and slam down to the Gulf like an anvil. We get that look, and we're in business! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Calm before the storm(HA). Yea I was gonna be lazy and just knew I would get on here and see some 12z or 6z fantasy storm maps. Now I'm gonna have to go dig em up myself. Haha! Yeah..I got on this morning and saw that it was still on the same page number as when I went to bed. AND the last post was by jburns. When I see the last post by jburns, I just assume a funny comment is going to be there when I click on it. So I was thinking it must have been a not-so-good model night. But I was wrong. It was a decent model night and there was a funny comment by jburns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Yep, I'm glad we're finally getting some consistency with respect to the cold air coming. I want to see a nice, strong HP build in across the Lakes, rather than come straight out of Canada and slam down to the Gulf like an anvil. We get that look, and we're in business! The nice thing about the models (lately) is that they do change solutions from run to run (which is normal in long range), but they are showing cold solutions. Yesterday it was very cold and dry for x-mas and today (6z) it's showing a possible CAD. At lunch today it might be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Euro Ensemble looks pretty good at hr240...players are there, just have to see how cold it gets and how long it holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Yes, looking good on the 500mb anomalies from the Euro... nice! http://www.daculaweather.com/4_euro_00_500_anom_nh.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Cant get surface temps, specefics at hour 262ish on gfs ensembles/op. But in thumbing through everything 6z and 0z related IT goes hand in hand with what Brandon stated last night. With GFS OP it would be overruning ice, no doubt in CAD areas around 26th-27th. One thing that does stick out is the big front comes through Friday12/21 and behind this is a nice upslope followed a few days latter by another. So ski areas will be set for Christmas Hollidays. Pretty much a gurantee now. East of the mtns the time Brandon harped on 26th-27th has strong signals from all modelling. Here is a ensemble favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 On Christmas Day, with cold air entrenched, the Euro looks to pop a low right on the Carolinas. I know it's at the 240 range, but it does look like the Euro is pretty consistent in thinking we will have the cold available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 On Christmas Day, with cold air entrenched, the Euro looks to pop a low right on the Carolinas. I know it's at the 240 range, but it does look like the Euro is pretty consistent in thinking we will have the cold available. Hopefully, that'll pop right off the GA/FL coast and strengthen rapidly as it crawls slowly up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 So - the GFS appears to be in crazy land again.... its all like, destroying the NAO block, and moving everything super fast. Can someone fix the computers and get rid of the progressive bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 It's doing what it always does, nothing seems to get started every run until around hour 192. We need to see the changes showing up at around 150 once we get past the weekend or we might be in trouble. Hopefully Euro sticks to it's gun and it's just the GFS being out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 GFS still hinting at something for Christmas week but on this run it's just not quite cold enough. Let's see if the Euro still has the good setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The +PNA on the euro is probably too far east to be anything but transient, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Burger - it is doing what it always does, which is move the flow along too fast, and break down blocks too quickly. The storm for Tuesday is now a full 12 hours faster on the gfs. For whatever reason though, the gfs seems to do ok past truncation with major players - it was the first to advertise the pna change, but from 72 hours on its generally garbage because the quickness of the flow causes strange things beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The +PNA on the euro is probably too far east to be anything but transient, right? The 216 panel has got the ridge in a good location, depending on how strong and diggy the S/W energy is. It looks like there is some northern stream energy and some southern stream energy. How they interact (if they're even real features) could make things quite interesting. The ridge does get a little far east by 240. Still quite chilly in the SE, but things look progressive at that time. That's just verbatim. The 12Z GFS actually doesn't look quite as cold as the 0Z and the overall pattern looks different at times, but it still offers some possibilities. There's so much energy in the flow that you get virtually a different look each time the model runs. But generally, both the Euro and the GFS are more consistently looking quite a bit better than they did a week or two ago. At least there are some possibilities, though they might end up requiring more very, very good timing than we'd like to have to rely on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Lets hope the Euro holds serve with the noon run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 There is definitely some quirkiness in the last couple of days worth of runs. Yesterday the GFS had us in a relative deep freeze way down here around Christmas. Today's runs are much warmer for the same time period. Are the models having a hard time latching on to something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Getting mixed results on the strat runs. 12z run almost splits the PV at 30hPa and puts a very weak piece in Greenland which quickly gets pushed out.Stronger piece looks to go to Siberia though.Blocking still showing up in west central Canada. No trend yet just have to keep watching but the last three runs haven't put a strong piece in Greenland,18z yesterday did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Well lets hope we get a shot at some frozen stuff over the holidays. But if we can't get any of the white stuff maybe we can take a shot at going for the Coldest Christmas on record. Tough task since in 1983 Raleigh had a high of 19 and low of 0. This was with full sun. I remember this bone chilling vodka cold outbreak. Ponds, rivers, sounds everything was frozen. Here is a list of all the weather stations in NC and their Christmas records warmest,coldest, precip e.t.c. Just scroll down to find after opening link. How bout Lake Toxaway with close to 5 inches (rain i'm guessing) on 12/25/09. http://www.nc-climat...r=coldest_value MIA/amber alert: Where is weathernc and snowjoe. Gonna miss weathernc input and joe's ob's if/when we actually get some winter weather to chase. I'll never forget that spot of cold. Epic around here. Had to leave Columbia where we were on a Xmas visit to get home to save the pipes..oops, to late But we did save the new born kittens, so it was the right decision...as the depth of the cold had been underestimated.. I'm worried about Joe. I don't know if there are any volcanos on Tahiti, but something is keeping him there I still like the look after Xmas for some ice shennigans, or at least some nice cold rain. Larry..have you ever done research on actual rain day averages, during the rainy season, around here? You say normal cold is dry, but surely in the rainy months we get a number of wet days? I'd hate to think a few good gom lows fills the quota, and the rest is 23 to 43 and dry. And danged if I don't remember lots of 33 and rain disappointments. In fact, I sort of accepted that was the norm T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Getting mixed results on the strat runs. 12z run almost splits the PV at 30hPa and puts a very weak piece in Greenland which quickly gets pushed out.Stronger piece looks to go to Siberia though.Blocking still showing up in west central Canada. No trend yet just have to keep watching but the last three runs haven't put a strong piece in Greenland,18z yesterday did. Hey NC, Not up enough on the strato stuff. Do we want a piece to go to Greenland, or would that make the warmth get out of hand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUProud Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Hello folks, major weather weenie here. I wanted to tell all of you how much I enjoy this board. I am a pastor who has been sidelined for about two years due to cancer issues and treatment. I can't do a lot right now due to chronic pain so I have kept up with all your updates on a daily basis. I have learned a lot about weather and wanted to tell you thanks for keeping us informed. Like most of you I love the cold and snow. I live just south of Peachtree City Ga in Senoia, famous right now for the filming of The Walking Dead. So guys in major weather weenie style I have to ask...is it going to snow in my backyard this year? lol... God bless you all and I pray you have a happy, cold, snow filled Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Hello folks, major weather weenie here. I wanted to tell all of you how much I enjoy this board. I am a pastor who has been sidelined for about two years due to cancer issues and treatment. I can't do a lot right now due to chronic pain so I have kept up with all your updates on a daily basis. I have learned a lot about weather and wanted to tell you thanks for keeping us informed. Like most of you I love the cold and snow. I live just south of Peachtree City Ga in Senoia, famous right now for the filming of The Walking Dead. So guys in major weather weenie style I have to ask...is it going to snow in my backyard this year? lol... God bless you all and I pray you have a happy, cold, snow filled Christmas! My prayers to you AUProud. Best wishes to you this Christmas season and I am hopeful for continued success with your treatments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 There is definitely some quirkiness in the last couple of days worth of runs. Yesterday the GFS had us in a relative deep freeze way down here around Christmas. Today's runs are much warmer for the same time period. Are the models having a hard time latching on to something? Lucy has struck yet again. However, I'm not getting fooled as I keep mentioning taking the cold runs with a huge grain. In especially the GFS case, it has been due to a really bad cold bias. In this bad Pacific pattern, it keeps underestimating the warming influence of the Pacific and giving too much influence to the blocking on the cold runs. The cold runs have not been verifying. The warmer ones have. Really, the bias has been pretty bad since at least Oct. for the SE US. So, that's why I keep mentioning Lucy. Let's compare today's 12Z at 168 hrs w/ yest.'s at 186 at RDU. OMG, the warmup is insanely huge!! The 18Z had a very cold -11C at 850. The 12Z now has a whopping +5, meaning the 168 map is warmer by 16C or 29F!!! The coldest at KATL in the 6-10 on the 18Z was -7C. The coldest on the 12Z in the 6-10 is a mere +1C! This is reminding me a bit about the severe cold bias of 01-02, when I ws doing those cold bias tests at WWBB. Edit: two gfs runs in mid Oct. got katl down to near the coldest on record in Oct. of ~28. Has katl even gotten that cold yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 ...GA THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS... SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FROM GA THROUGH ERN CAROLINAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDING THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSPORT MODIFIED CP AIR WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL /MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG/ ESPECIALLY WITH NWD EXTENT INTO WARM SECTOR OWING TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG CONVEYOR BELT...AND MAY UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS AND DESTABILIZES. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES...WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOWING STRUCTURES AND SUPERCELLS. WILL INTRODUCE A 5% SEVERE COVERAGE AREA AT THIS TIME DUE TO POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS IMPOSED BY THE EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...AREA WILL BE RE-EVALUATED FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK ON THE DAY 2 UPDATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Hello folks, major weather weenie here. I wanted to tell all of you how much I enjoy this board. I am a pastor who has been sidelined for about two years due to cancer issues and treatment. I can't do a lot right now due to chronic pain so I have kept up with all your updates on a daily basis. I have learned a lot about weather and wanted to tell you thanks for keeping us informed. Like most of you I love the cold and snow. I live just south of Peachtree City Ga in Senoia, famous right now for the filming of The Walking Dead. So guys in major weather weenie style I have to ask...is it going to snow in my backyard this year? lol... God bless you all and I pray you have a happy, cold, snow filled Christmas! Hey, neighbor! I'm over in Spalding. And Psalm is in Meriwether Co. Hope you heal up quick, so you can go sledding if we get lucky. Watch what Larry says. If he gets excited we might have a chance down here. And CandyMan is a fun met south of you in Columbus, and Delta down in Macon. We've got some good mets in Ga. that keep us covered. Dawson, north of Atl... and if Cheeze says no, then probably not Lookout, over near Athens can tell us what the column is doing, and it is so helpful in seeing the possibilities when the storm nears. I think he actually lives in the column since he knows so much about it. Keep reading..if something is coming you'll know way before the rest of the world. And post your observations. That's always helpful. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 So far the Euro has held serve with the cold weather Days 6-8... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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