franklin NCwx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 12z Euro brings back the cold shot next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 12z is back to a +pna solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Pretty amazing GFS and Euro agree on basic set up today, although I'm sure they will both be different tonight. Best takeaway though from runs today is both models are showing west coast ridging now before 168 hours, not after truncation. What follows for Christmas week is still quite up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Pretty amazing GFS and Euro agree on basic set up today, although I'm sure they will both be different tonight. Best takeaway though from runs today is both models are showing west coast ridging now before 168 hours, not after truncation. What follows for Christmas week is still quite up in the air. The CMC is onboard as well. Pretty good agreement between those three models. Not quite in the Ukie's range yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 12z is back to a +pna solution. That there is a beautiful map...it has nor'easter for Christmas written all over it. Now if this could actually evolve... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Good news for cold lovers, the big detached lobe in the Pacific is back on both GFS and ECMWF today, after losing it last night. This will allow a major cold outbreak starting next Friday as part 1, then a bigger arrival around day 10 most likely. The Euro is bigger with the cold blast because it makes a bomb around the Lakes that slowly works into eastern Canada and allows more cold to come in from Cross Polar flow behind it. This could turn out to be a big severe outbreak beyond day 10 if the Pacific doesn't get pushed inland too quickly. You want to see it detach completely like ECMWF is showing. The best news I suppose is that it's within 7 days of really getting underway, so it's probably legit this time. I'd like to see it back up just a little more to allow digging of any s/w coming down across the Rex Block type of Alaska ridge, or there could be some ejections from the Pacific flow at some point. Either way now this flow looks more supportive of turning cold, finally and within a predictable time range so long as they are handling that detachment in the Pacific properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Bring on the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Good news for cold lovers, the big detached lobe in the Pacific is back on both GFS and ECMWF today, after losing it last night. This will allow a major cold outbreak starting next Friday as part 1, then a bigger arrival around day 10 most likely. The Euro is bigger with the cold blast because it makes a bomb around the Lakes that slowly works into eastern Canada and allows more cold to come in from Cross Polar flow behind it. This could turn out to be a big severe outbreak beyond day 10 if the Pacific doesn't get pushed inland too quickly. You want to see it detach completely like ECMWF is showing. The best news I suppose is that it's within 7 days of really getting underway, so it's probably legit this time. I'd like to see it back up just a little more to allow digging of any s/w coming down across the Rex Block type of Alaska ridge, or there could be some ejections from the Pacific flow at some point. Either way now this flow looks more supportive of turning cold, finally and within a predictable time range so long as they are handling that detachment in the Pacific properly. And this is why living and dying by model runs is a hard way to live. I really want to see that cross polar flow connect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Thanks Tony and NCSnow! Gotta come back to track the snow! Hopefully I'll have a few more resources to share when the weather starts getting bad! Well, I hope one of the new toys is a "preferred precip. type changer", because my feelers have been all a tingle telling me the first thing up is likely ice city, and I hate zrain with a passion. But gulf involved rains, and slow to grow cold, and highs skipping across the top instead of heading for Texas..... one of these days might get a slooow ooze down the side of the mtns. with some gulf coming up. Seems more likely than a full tilt split flow snow doozy this early. Hope I'm very, very wrong. But even 73, after scaring the wits out of me, and destroying Atlanta, smiled real big on Macon a few weeks later. This year I'd like the sleet, and some snow, Macon can have the city crusher zrain, and you guys can get the big snow..seems only fair, after making me go through the horrors, and the crushing disappointments of being in Atl in 73. But it probably won't work out that way. Maybe it'll just be some nuisance ice over near Athens and into SC. Maybe...let's hope...I'm delusional...and the tingle is just day to day, unrealistic, weather induced, paranoia. I need some of Larry's Own brand, Zen ice cream. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Not that it matters, but the euro ensemble mean has shown a large CAD setup the 26-28th for the last few days. 1040-1045 high sitting up near the great lakes and large inland runner system into the midwest. The gfs had a similiar setup yesterday. Could be a good timeframe to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The op. GFS and Euro are mighty cold in the 6-10. However, I see absolutely no reason to buy them. Been there done that a number of times. No reason to trust them. We may luck out and it still happen only because the cold can't stay away forever, but why should they be trusted this time? Lucy and the football again! Keep in mind that the Euro, itself, had two very cold 6-10's in Wednesday's runs and then abandoned them yesterday. Now it is suddenly back? You get the picture. Don't get so optimistic about the cold is my recommendation. If it should just happen to occur this time, great for the cold lovers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The op. GFS and Euro are mighty cold int he 6-10. However, I see absolutely no reason to buy them. Been there done that a number of times. No reason to trust them. We may luck out and it still happen only because the cold can't stay away forever, but why should they be trusted this time? Lucy and the football again! I feel your pain, but the meteorology will win out if it is there. There is strong agreement amongst most of the operational models, and the ensembles are in pretty strong agreement as well. If we can get this H5 pattern to stay similar inside of the 7 day window, I think it is safe to say that much colder conditions are on the way. And if the pattern currently depicted on the 12z runs of todays (and yesterdays) models comes to fruition, winter storm chances are significantly elevated across the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Good news fwiw: 18Z GFS actually looking colder than the 12Z GFS as of next Thursday night! Maybe , just maybe....no, I'm not going to fall for Lucy again....but maybe??? Edit: IF the 18Z GFS were to somehow verify, (a huge if), KATL and much of the inland SE would have a hard freeze and north FL a freeze a week from tomorrow and Sun. mornings!!! Can this be real? This would be an amazing turnaround if it were to verify. But remember, Lucy's football. Edit #2: The run (fwiw, which is less than just about anything one could think of) has absolutely frigid air that moves over NW Canada days 12-13 and then makes it down to the N. Rockies, N Plains and upper Midwest days 14-16 though it never barrels down anywhere near the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 To me, it seems like the EURO has been playing catchup with the GFS; incredibly. The GFS was first to indicate the west based -NAO, and the GFS was the first to indicate the ridging in the pacific (and still shows it this morning I believe). The EURO showed the same thing yesterday but then lost it this morning. Believe it or not, I think the GFS is doing a good job of sniffing out these medium range pattern changes. The EURO is just getting late to the party. Maybe it's the weenieism in me, but I'll bet the EURO goes back to showing the improved pacific that it did yesterday in future runs. I reserve my right to change my opinion at anytime however. But I also reserve my right to prepare for glory at anytime as well. Bump to pat myself on the back for just KNOWING the EURO was going to get back on board. No, but seriously GFS is doing a good job it seems and most models are in agreement. The cold is coming it looks like, but will we have moisture to work with? We've seen this before, nice and cold...but dry. If we can get moisture, we can then.....prepare for glory. I like that phrase by the way. That's going to be my catch phrase, I call dibs. Did WOW copyright it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Not that it matters, but the euro ensemble mean has shown a large CAD setup the 26-28th for the last few days. 1040-1045 high sitting up near the great lakes and large inland runner system into the midwest. The gfs had a similiar setup yesterday. Could be a good timeframe to watch. That's what spurred me to post, and it's not the first time something like it has show up in GoofyLand. Just seems more likely to verify than a perfect late Jan. or Feb set up, in Dec., from a climo standpoint. But like you say it's too far out to matter. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Bump to pat myself on the back for just KNOWING the EURO was going to get back on board. No, but seriously GFS is doing a good job it seems and most models are in agreement. The cold is coming it looks like, but will we have moisture to work with? We've seen this before, nice and cold...but dry. If we can get moisture, we can then.....prepare for glory. I like that phrase by the way. That's going to be my catch phrase, I call dibs. Did WOW copyright it? Imo, winter lovers should be happy IF it actually does get cold and not worry about wintry precip. all of the time. The SE usually is more often cold and dry than cold and wet. We're struggling just to get it cold, and cold and dry would still be a good thing..well..except for Brick lol. I would hope many would be pleased if it were to get cold and dry and not complain, especially with it being December, not a good wintry precip. producing month. Odds heavily support next weekend's cold, if it occurs, being dry based on combo of models and climo. Remember that this cold is far from in the bag (Lucy!!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Indeed, that was a good call Niner. I don't see anything far fetched about this. The big upper low drops down off the Cali coast, heights rise in the west and fall in the east. Some runs didn't want to build the ridging into Alaska and drop that low south off the Cali coast...we could see that type of idea return, but that wasn't the trend today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 18z really brings the cold the weekend before x-mas. Not sure what to think with the flipping from run to run. Yesterday it was showing a week system moving through the SE with 850 0 degree line running through upper Tenn to upper NC. This is what it shows now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The 18z run is the first run I've seen the strong Asian warming split the PV in the lower strat in la la land. Unfortunately one piece is forecast to go straight into Greenland which will cut off the blocking eventually.Other piece goes deep into Asia.Need a strong warming to shred this feature up or weaken it severely..Better warming/blocking is still showing up in NW Canada though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Not that it matters, but the euro ensemble mean has shown a large CAD setup the 26-28th for the last few days. 1040-1045 high sitting up near the great lakes and large inland runner system into the midwest. The gfs had a similiar setup yesterday. Could be a good timeframe to watch. The Euro Ens looks better than the GFS Ens at day 10 in that it has a bit stronger -NAO look. Assuming we do get a decent cold shot or 2 via AK/NW CAN ridging, I think keeping the -NAO longer will be a key in any wintry mischief during Christmas week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Bring on the rain +1 Well, I hope one of the new toys is a "preferred precip. type changer", because my feelers have been all a tingle telling me the first thing up is likely ice city, and I hate zrain with a passion. But gulf involved rains, and slow to grow cold, and highs skipping across the top instead of heading for Texas..... one of these days might get a slooow ooze down the side of the mtns. with some gulf coming up. Seems more likely than a full tilt split flow snow doozy this early. Hope I'm very, very wrong. But even 73, after scaring the wits out of me, and destroying Atlanta, smiled real big on Macon a few weeks later. This year I'd like the sleet, and some snow, Macon can have the city crusher zrain, and you guys can get the big snow..seems only fair, after making me go through the horrors, and the crushing disappointments of being in Atl in 73. But it probably won't work out that way. Maybe it'll just be some nuisance ice over near Athens and into SC. Maybe...let's hope...I'm delusional...and the tingle is just day to day, unrealistic, weather induced, paranoia. I need some of Larry's Own brand, Zen ice cream. T Your feelers might be on to something. With all of the cad's we've had here recently, this is a definite possibility this year as opposed to the past few. Not that it matters, but the euro ensemble mean has shown a large CAD setup the 26-28th for the last few days. 1040-1045 high sitting up near the great lakes and large inland runner system into the midwest. The gfs had a similiar setup yesterday. Could be a good timeframe to watch. It got my attention the other day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Well lets hope we get a shot at some frozen stuff over the holidays. But if we can't get any of the white stuff maybe we can take a shot at going for the Coldest Christmas on record. Tough task since in 1983 Raleigh had a high of 19 and low of 0. This was with full sun. I remember this bone chilling vodka cold outbreak. Ponds, rivers, sounds everything was frozen. Here is a list of all the weather stations in NC and their Christmas records warmest,coldest, precip e.t.c. Just scroll down to find after opening link. How bout Lake Toxaway with close to 5 inches (rain i'm guessing) on 12/25/09. http://www.nc-climat...r=coldest_value MIA/amber alert: Where is weathernc and snowjoe. Gonna miss weathernc input and joe's ob's if/when we actually get some winter weather to chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 00z GFS tonight might be interesting down stream, midweek next week it has a storm really cranking up around the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 At about 162 hrs almost all of nc and upper sc is below freezing thru about 174, pretty nice cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Major shot of cold air in the NE on this run. Nothing snow wise, but that would be close to record breaking temps for parts of NY -20 surface temps for a large part of NY and points north. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Models are really screaming big dog around the 26 to 27th. Wouldn't pay much attention to surface, upper levels are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Major shot of cold air in the NE on this run. Nothing snow wise, but that would be close to record breaking temps for parts of NY -20 surface temps for a large part of NY and points north. Wow! Maybe even -30 in Upstate. That would be crazy. -30 in NY, +30 in Washington State! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Models are really screaming big dog around the 26 to 27th. Wouldn't pay much attention to surface, upper levels are there. Yep, was just about to say the same thing. They are fairly consistent too, will be something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Yep, was just about to say the same thing. They are fairly consistent too, will be something to watch. I think the AO trends on the GFS support this time frame as being a good one for a storm. The MJO now in phase 1 along with a dip/rise in the AO. All this coalescing to support something. Given the STJ/CAD look, I would favor some type of overrunning mixed event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 It's out there, but yes, nice look on the GFS. Thumb ridge in W Can aids development of 50/50 type low with ridging to it's north. Split flow in W NAmer with wave rolling into the desert SW. It doesn't work out verbatim, but the pieces are there. It's almost like you need to take every piece of the puzzle and shift it south a few degress of latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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