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December Forecast Discussion

Wow

By Wow,
in Southeastern States

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beanskip

beanskip

Posted
Posted

You are right, of course. We are only in the first week of the 2-3 week process of models showing a cold outbreak. Long way to go before something actually makes it into the short-term. The 6z GFS is a good example of your mirage -- it's only when the model truncates that the cold air starts to press southward. Not buying it.

The mirage effect for upcoming cold air continues. As we get closer, the models keep making warmer adjustments. The GFS continues to exhibit a cold bias. Even the Euro has been doing that with the two (Wednesday?) 6-10 day cold runs followed by the delay in cold to day 10. Now the Euro has warmed days 9-10! Fool me once, shame on the models. Fool me umpteen times, shame on me. Well, I'm not falling for the cold biases. I had said that that I was taking yesterday's cold day 10 on the Euro with a huge grain thinking it quite possibly was another cold mirage. So, I'm not really disappointed as it is no surprise at all. The GFS cold bias has been atrocious since well back in early autumn. My assumption of no steady cold through all of December continues to look better and better. Maybe January will be different? We'll see, but I'm not counting on it for sure as the Pacific continues to say "No steady cold pattern for you!"

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

The mirage effect for upcoming cold air continues. As we get closer, the models keep making warmer adjustments. The GFS continues to exhibit a cold bias. Even the Euro has been doing that with the two (Wednesday?) 6-10 day cold runs followed by the delay in cold to day 10. Now the Euro has warmed days 9-10! Fool me once, shame on the models. Fool me umpteen times, shame on me. Well, I'm not falling for the cold biases. I had said that that I was taking yesterday's cold day 10 on the Euro with a huge grain thinking it quite possibly was another cold mirage. So, I'm not really disappointed as it is no surprise at all. The GFS cold bias has been atrocious since well back in early autumn. My assumption of no steady cold through all of December continues to look better and better. Maybe January will be different? We'll see, but I'm not counting on it for sure as the Pacific continues to say "No steady cold pattern for you!"

Well you know I haven't been to positive about this winter but this was the first time the models were showing a ridge in the west, I still think it has shot to come back in future runs, but if it doesn't and we stay with an awful pacific, I think Jan maybe a lost cause.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

Pacific continues to fool the models. I was leary yesterday of the big cold outbreak on Euro and all because of the doubts I had of it detaching the trough in the Pacific, far enough offshore to allow a northwest flow into the lower 48. This latest run no longer has that big detached look in the Pacific. Cooler for the northern half of the country, yes, but not anything out of the ordinary. Basically it has zonal flow coming in from the Pacific now, and this will limit cold drainage this far south. Who knows the models may flip back , but I wouldn't count on it yet. The cold we do get will be quick shots behind any strong storms in the Northeast over the next week to 10 days, and those don't last long. Atleast there is still some rain on the way this weekend. Now there could be just enough cold air eventually pressing south beyond 10 days, maybe around Christmas that could be a good opportunity especially the further north in the Southern states you are, if a High is placed right and the lows don't pull too far north. In this pattern coming up I'm more concerned about it being cold enough more than I am about moisture at that range, even though the moisture too has been much less in NC and VA a lot lately. What we should root for (if you want a winter storm) is one big chunk of cold that doesn't blast through, but presses far enough south like yesterdays ECM run and leaves room in the far south for some undercutting systems. Similar to split flow.

post-38-0-32353500-1355487951_thumb.gif

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jmundie

jmundie

Posted
Posted

A friend of mine over at another forum wen through and researche the longest -pna episodes in the last 50 years (since it appears good data doesn't exist prior)

12/5/51-1/26/52(52 days)

2/5/55- 3/25/55 (44 days)

12/13/55-1/29/56 (45 days)

1/5/57-2/12/57 (37 days)

11/17/61-12/26/61 (38 days)

12/16/70-1/31/70 (46 days)

10/30/73-12/5/73 (35 days)

2/9/76-3/25/76 (45 days)

1/22/79-2/25/79 (33 days)

10/2/85-12/1/85(60 days)

11/27/96-1/5/97 (39 days)

11/14/10- 12/31/10 (47 days)

11/5/12- present and counting(37 days)

Based on that data set, the longest -pna episode that began in Nov was 47 days, which means if it stays negative past the 23rd, this year will be the longest lasting -pna that began in November.

Don't know how much that is worth, but it's something to keep an eye on given the models wanting to break this thing down, flip floppy as they may be.

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

I think Robert has a handle on some of the things we need to be concerned about. Based on the way the the ensembles were looking 2 days ago, I had concerns we may simply go into a pattern where the main storm track ends up along the demarcation zone from the Plains through the Mid Ohio Valley up into the upper Northeast.

It's tough to get a handle on even 10 days out.

Hoping for the best that things swing in our favor so we get some solid winter weather and at least some High Country upslope. Ground is completely bare up in the mountains and the ski slopes are having a hard time consistently blowing any snow. Christmas to New Year week had best produce for skiers. We'll see.

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Southern Track

Southern Track

Posted
Posted

A friend of mine over at another forum wen through and researche the longest -pna episodes in the last 50 years (since it appears good data doesn't exist prior)

12/5/51-1/26/52(52 days)

2/5/55- 3/25/55 (44 days)

12/13/55-1/29/56 (45 days)

1/5/57-2/12/57 (37 days)

11/17/61-12/26/61 (38 days)

12/16/70-1/31/70 (46 days)

10/30/73-12/5/73 (35 days)

2/9/76-3/25/76 (45 days)

1/22/79-2/25/79 (33 days)

10/2/85-12/1/85(60 days)

11/27/96-1/5/97 (39 days)

11/14/10- 12/31/10 (47 days)

11/5/12- present and counting(37 days)

Based on that data set, the longest -pna episode that began in Nov was 47 days, which means if it stays negative past the 23rd, this year will be the longest lasting -pna that began in November.

Don't know how much that is worth, but it's something to keep an eye on given the models wanting to break this thing down, flip floppy as they may be.

Really good info, thanks. You would think that Pacific would have to come neutral to slightly positive soon. Just like the extreme AO and NAO are relaxing to more of a neutral to slightly negative signal. It would be nice to get the Pacific to shut off it's fan, and still have the cooperation with the Arctic and Atlantic.

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted

Euro ensemblestest8.gif say prepare for glory!

To me, it seems like the EURO has been playing catchup with the GFS; incredibly. The GFS was first to indicate the west based -NAO, and the GFS was the first to indicate the ridging in the pacific (and still shows it this morning I believe). The EURO showed the same thing yesterday but then lost it this morning. Believe it or not, I think the GFS is doing a good job of sniffing out these medium range pattern changes. The EURO is just getting late to the party. Maybe it's the weenieism in me, but I'll bet the EURO goes back to showing the improved pacific that it did yesterday in future runs.

I reserve my right to change my opinion at anytime however. But I also reserve my right to prepare for glory at anytime as well.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

A friend of mine over at another forum wen through and researche the longest -pna episodes in the last 50 years (since it appears good data doesn't exist prior)

12/5/51-1/26/52(52 days)

2/5/55- 3/25/55 (44 days)

12/13/55-1/29/56 (45 days)

1/5/57-2/12/57 (37 days)

11/17/61-12/26/61 (38 days)

12/16/70-1/31/70 (46 days)

10/30/73-12/5/73 (35 days)

2/9/76-3/25/76 (45 days)

1/22/79-2/25/79 (33 days)

10/2/85-12/1/85(60 days)

11/27/96-1/5/97 (39 days)

11/14/10- 12/31/10 (47 days)

11/5/12- present and counting(37 days)

Based on that data set, the longest -pna episode that began in Nov was 47 days, which means if it stays negative past the 23rd, this year will be the longest lasting -pna that began in November.

Don't know how much that is worth, but it's something to keep an eye on given the models wanting to break this thing down, flip floppy as they may be.

Very interesting info! What I'd like to know is how quickly the -PNA returned to dominance for each of the periods that end in Dec. I do know that it didn't return until Feb. or so in 2011 and that the preceding -PNA period was very cold, a most unusual situation! However, what about the other cases? Was there a fairly long period before the -PNA returned to dominate? Same Q about the case ending on 1/5/97.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

Matt's video today explains what the GFS is showing in the long range. Brick, this is a must see, bro!

http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/

:santa:

Looks awesome. The bad thing is it is so far away, so a lot can change. But I really like the pattern and trends we are seeing. There is a lot of energy and instability coming with these systems beginning next week. I really thing the system next week could set us up for something good. I don't even care if we don't have a long period of bitter cold. We just need it cold enough at the right time. It seems the pattern is very up and down, and that can cometimes give us some big snowstorms if everything works out at the right time.

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beanskip

beanskip

Posted
Posted

12z GFS gives Maine about four straight days of snow.

MUCH colder in the wake of that low which just parks off the NNE coast and funnels cold air our way.

No chance of a southern stream system though - would just get crushed by that big nothern low.

That's going to be a cold 1PM kickoff for the Raiders/Panthers on the 23rd. Might be one of the coldest panthers games ever, if that holds.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

There is a ridge over the Aleutians. That is the exact opposite of what is best for SE cold, a trough over the Aleutians. The Pacific is cr*ppola.

I already told you guys mid January at least. But speaking of Europe, it looks like that's the place to be if you want Winter anymore....or Alaska.

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted

There is a ridge over the Aleutians. That is the exact opposite of what is best for SE cold, a trough over the Aleutians. The Pacific is cr*ppola.

Larry, that is a -epo signal. That is what delivers the "vodka cold" to the lower 48. Bad news is the GFS goes positive with nao. Just to add, you are correct, we want a trough over the Aleutians.12zgfsepo.gif
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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Where the heck have you been, JeepBoy??

Yep, the best thing about the maps for weeks now has been the rain showing up, I won't worry about the cold until I see some drought busting going on. More and more the storms have been good to us down here, and that means more to me, right now, than all the cold in the world. The only snow and icicles you get in a drought with super cold around is from your breath and nose droppings! T

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

Where the heck have you been, JeepBoy??

Yep, the best thing about the maps for weeks now has been the rain showing up, I won't worry about the cold until I see some drought busting going on. More and more the storms have been good to us down here, and that means more to me, right now, than all the cold in the world. The only snow and icicles you get in a drought with super cold around is from your breath and nose droppings! T

Thanks Tony and NCSnow! Gotta come back to track the snow! Hopefully I'll have a few more resources to share when the weather starts getting bad!

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted

Larry, that is a -epo signal. That is what delivers the "vodka cold" to the lower 48. Bad news is the GFS goes positive with nao. Just to add, you are correct, we want a trough over the Aleutians.12zgfsepo.gif

Go figure, we get the pacific right....then we lose the blocking. Nice. Need both the peanut butter and the choclate to make reeses....

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