franklin NCwx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 not a bad look on Euro at 216 by my untrained eye.. continent wide trough setting a little further west than 0Z, higher heights in Alaska from one gastonia native to another, welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 yes please That map is certainly better than what we have been seeing lately. Notice the heights building south of Alaska. Also, notice the higher heights in NW Canada. Not going into weenie mode just yet, but if this set-up verifies, we could see some very cold air in our neck of the woods. I agree with the previous posters. Let's get the cold air in here first and then see what happens after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Euro weeklies don't look too bad tonight. It does have the cold shot through 300 then it's seasonal...Then it goes cold and back to seasonal. At the very end it looks like a big cold shot is coming through. Someone better at reading maps can elaborate more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 According to Glenn Burns, the rest of the month will feature normal to above normal temps: "The new Arctic Oscillation Index (AO) today shows those red squiggly lines (computer models) turning upwards. This would mean temps are likely to be normal to above normal the rest of the month" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Burger, are you paying the Euro site for those weeklies or a different site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 According to Glenn Burns, the rest of the month will feature normal to above normal temps: "The new Arctic Oscillation Index (AO) today shows those red squiggly lines (computer models) turning upwards. This would mean temps are likely to be normal to above normal the rest of the month" Besides the fact he's wrong on that interpretation of the AO, the GFS and EURO both have the AO in negative territory through day 10, despite a turn towards positive which was inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Burger, are you paying the Euro site for those weeklies or a different site? I'm using Accu Pro maps which now have Euro Weeklies. I'm probably going to pay for it for the rest of winter. I also have SV which I prefer...but accu pro has better snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Some reason for concern if you take today's Euro Weeklies verbatim. After some brief cold shots around Christmas, in early January the lower third of the country including our area is again flushed with the Pacific and 850s as high as 15deg C with the 0c line up into New York. If taken literally it shows a demarcation line thru the plains and midwest into the upper Mid Atlantic states. This is what was shown earlier several weeks back in discussion for a longer range outlook. Another cold opportunity then shows up right at the very end of the run. Who knows how it will exactly play out for sure at this juncture as there is a lot on the table but sustained cold can still be unfortunately questioned if inidications from this evening's weeklies are taken verabatim. I hate to mention it as Euro Weeklies should not necessarily be used for Snow Accumulation, but I will (since that is what everyone wants to hear). If taken verbatim, they do not show anything in North Carolina except a minor event or 2 in the mountains. Summary: Best near term opportunity for true winter cold around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 According to Glenn Burns, the rest of the month will feature normal to above normal temps: "The new Arctic Oscillation Index (AO) today shows those red squiggly lines (computer models) turning upwards. This would mean temps are likely to be normal to above normal the rest of the month" Thats no fun. Oh well bring on January. It was only 50 here today. Massive difference from the record high of 82 on Monday. Cloudy, cold, and drizzle today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I'm confused, don't these two issues contradict themselves? Does the EURO create a ridge on the west coast like the GFS or not? I want to prepare for glory dang it! Euro ensembles say prepare for glory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Euro ensembles say prepare for glory! Wow, that is a near perfect setup. Now if only 00z can stay consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 from one gastonia native to another, welcome! Thx for the welcome, weather forums cannot have too many Gastonians, right? Hearing other good news from around the site today such as related to the Stratosphere and the QBO. Hopefully the runs tonight will continue their hot streak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Looks like something brewing in texas this run at 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 00z is a little slower with the cold air and it's not quite as deep into the SE..it looses the 23rd storm and leaves some energy spinning int TX for a few days with it finally moving after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Looks like something brewing in texas this run at 240. It finally makes it to NC around hour 312 with some light snow in NC. That thing just spins and spins in TX. On a fun note it phases the storm behind it at 336 with a blizzard in CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I'm starting to get pretty excited about the timeframe around christmas, give or take a few days. That's a great look at 276(i know, i know). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I know this should probably go in the banter thread...but come on it's been so long since we've even seen this on the GFS...don't hold your breath on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 I'm starting to get pretty excited about the timeframe around christmas, give or take a few days. That's a great look at 276(i know, i know). Just just about to go full throttle weenie about that.. Who wouldn't love this map within 72 hrs? A classic split flow... PREPARE FOR GLORY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I'm starting to get pretty excited about the timeframe around christmas, give or take a few days. That's a great look at 276(i know, i know). I agree...It is by far the best look we've seen since probably 2010. I will feel a lot better if it continues to show up with in 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I agree...It is by far the best look we've seen since probably 2010. I will feel a lot better if it continues to show up with in 5 days. that high in ontario means business, too. that's a perfect setup. We'll see, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 that high in ontario means business, too. that's a perfect setup. We'll see, I guess. Taken literally, I'd guess that is producing sig. ZR in the Atlanta-Athens areas fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I'd like to see the west based -NAO hold stronger past day 10...sometimes the models can break down blocking patterns too quickly, so we'll have to see how that plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Taken literally, I'd guess that is producing sig. ZR in the Atlanta-Athens areas fwiw. I was thinking the samething, it seemed more like it would be a nasty ice storm around here. I'm more in awe and amazement by the strength of that HP sliding out of Canada though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The Euro last night, not so good. Not nearly as cold as 12z yesterday...though it does have a system on the 24th not sure there would be enough cold air to get us what we need. The Euro ENS gives a little swath of snow across WNC on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The Euro last night, not so good. Not nearly as cold as 12z yesterday...though it does have a system on the 24th not sure there would be enough cold air to get us what we need. The Euro ENS gives a little swath of snow across WNC on Christmas. Yeah, kinda disappointed to see a rather drastic change on the EURO from its previous run, but I suppose that is to be expected for 9-10 day forecasts. Hoping it brings back a colder look for Christmas in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Yeah, kinda disappointed to see a rather drastic change on the EURO from its previous run, but I suppose that is to be expected for 9-10 day forecasts. Hoping it brings back a colder look for Christmas in future runs. The classic AmericanWx way to be excited is if you wake up and there are about 15 - 20 new posts in the morning when you went to bed right after the GFS run. Euro just looked...blah, but I didn't look at any 500 charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidyr2k Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Matt's video today explains what the GFS is showing in the long range. Brick, this is a must see, bro! http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I like what the 6z GFS is showing for the 24th. It doesn't actually show a big system but there is system moving through. At this time range that is a good setup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The mirage effect for upcoming cold air continues. As we get closer, the models keep making warmer adjustments. The GFS continues to exhibit a cold bias. Even the Euro has been doing that with the two (Wednesday?) 6-10 day cold runs followed by the delay in cold to day 10. Now the Euro has warmed days 9-10! Fool me once, shame on the models. Fool me umpteen times, shame on me. Well, I'm not falling for the cold biases. I had said that that I was taking yesterday's cold day 10 on the Euro with a huge grain thinking it quite possibly was another cold mirage. So, I'm not really disappointed as it is no surprise at all. The GFS cold bias has been atrocious since well back in early autumn. My assumption of no steady cold through all of December continues to look better and better. Maybe January will be different? We'll see, but I'm not counting on it for sure as the Pacific continues to say "No steady cold pattern for you!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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