Jonesing for a chase Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 not a bad look on Euro at 216 by my untrained eye.. continent wide trough setting a little further west than 0Z, higher heights in Alaska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 12Z EURO continues the earlier trend of developing arctic HP in Canada toward the end of the run. +1050 HP at 192 poised to break south under a developing block and possible PNA ridge, which should send cold southward and toward the east, if it verifies. Having this show up inside of 10 days on consecutive runs is highly encouraging to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 12Z EURO continues the earlier trend of developing arctic HP in Canada toward the end of the run. +1050 HP at 192 poised to break south under a developing block and possible PNA ridge, which should send cold southward and toward the east, if it verifies. Having this show up inside of 10 days on consecutive runs is highly encouraging to me. Wouldn't a block that strong inhibit any shortwaves from amping up the coast? I'm afraid of the warm/wet and cold/dry problem in the next 15 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Day 10 is a classic look for southern snows with arctic HP in northern plains and PNA ridging. Of course, it also tends to leave us just cold and dry, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Euro dropping the E Pac UL and cutting it off.. that forces a western ridge (+PNA) which heights. While the -NAO signal is weak by the end of the run, N Atlantic heights are still quite low. Big HP coming down from the arctic.. going to be a cold Christmas. Polar s/w also swinging down from the N Plains which could make things interesting. The general layout the 12z Euro puts out is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 ^If that look verifies, I believe that we will be dealing with a couple bouts of wintry weather. It's *almost* thread-start worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 ^If that look verifies, I believe that we will be dealing with a couple bouts of wintry weather. It's *almost* thread-start worthy. Wish the euro showed a low pressure in the area by D10. Anything on the horizon in that sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 ^If that look verifies, I believe that we will be dealing with a couple bouts of wintry weather. It's *almost* thread-start worthy. You're the man with the mojo! Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 12z European model hints at the potential coming of a severe cold air outbreak and possible major winter storm pattern for the eastern US near Christmas. The huge caveat being that this is a 240 hr forecast, but folks if this is showing up in 5 days I'll be sounding the alarms and shining up the ol' snow shoes! Potential for major phasing down the road looks significant between energy diving down the western ridge and whenever that energy in the Pacific starts to move eastward. It's highly possible the ECMWF is holding back that energy too much already, which if true, could make things *very* interesting for the 12/23 - 25 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Wish the euro showed a low pressure in the area by D10. Anything on the horizon in that sense? I'm not too worried about whether a storm is depicted or not at this point. With a look like that, there will be energy in the STJ. The thing I would be most concerned about is any such system getting squashed. But if that sort of look remains in the modeling over the next couple of days, I'll guarantee you there will be a lot more posting going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I'm not too worried about whether a storm is depicted or not at this point. With a look like that, there will be energy in the STJ. The thing I would be most concerned about is any such system getting squashed. But if that sort of look remains in the modeling over the next couple of days, I'll guarantee you there will be a lot more posting going on. Suppression is a concern with that look, but we've seen many times suppressed storms amp in modeling 5 days before the event. The pattern is great in D9+. Hopefully the models will pick up on some type of short wave in the next few days just to track, if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 You're the man with the mojo! Bring it! Let's see if it still looks like that 7 days out. Man, I hope so because that setup is screaming, just screaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I'm not too worried about whether a storm is depicted or not at this point. With a look like that, there will be energy in the STJ. The thing I would be most concerned about is any such system getting squashed. But if that sort of look remains in the modeling over the next couple of days, I'll guarantee you there will be a lot more posting going on. One good thing is the insistence of the GFS bringing a system and squashing it right now. We know that more than likely the looks of cold are probably a little overdone, give me what the GFS is showing and I think we can take our chances on suppression especially since storms have a tendency to shift NW as you get closer to them. It also looked to me like the Euro was trying to hint at something but it never quite materialized around the 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 One of the most encouraging things to me is the consistency at which the models are all developing increasing amounts of high latitude blocking. I am definitely becoming more confident that the first true cold air mass of the season is coming around Christmas, and of course the details of the shortwaves will have to be worked out in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The Euro "went all 12z 12/12 GFS on us" with the ridging in the EPO/PNA regions, and dropping the cold down into the CONUS - last night's CMC had a simlar look. So where do we find a storm given the Euro look? I'd say it's unlikely that we'll see shortwaves ejecting off the big upper low off the Pac coast, and into the desert southwest...if that big upper low does get kicked east, we may very well be out of cold air (speculation of course). What we would want to see is a shortwave dropping down the spine of the Rockies into the Southern Plains before tracking east. With regard to cold/dry/suppression (Mr Bob's favorite term), that's an issue that is not limited to the SE. Think about it, if you are in Madison, WI, and you get that Euro look at hr240, you have big suppression concerns. The big thing for the SE is cold air, obviously...then worry about the shortwaves later. The overall look is not a moisture-laden El Nino split flow with -NAO block (a la 2009-2010), but at least it's a cold look...my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The Euro "went all 12z 12/12 GFS on us" with the ridging in the EPO/PNA regions, and dropping the cold down into the CONUS - last night's CMC had a simlar look. So where do we find a storm given the Euro look? I'd say it's unlikely that we'll see shortwaves ejecting off the big upper low off the Pac coast, and into the desert southwest...if that big upper low does get kicked east, we may very well be out of cold air (speculation of course). What we would want to see is a shortwave dropping down the spine of the Rockies into the Southern Plains before tracking east. With regard to cold/dry/suppression (Mr Bob's favorite term), that's an issue that is not limited to the SE. Think about it, if you are in Madison, WI, and you get that Euro look at hr240, you have big suppression concerns. The big thing for the SE is cold air, obviously...then worry about the shortwaves later. The overall look is not a moisture-laden El Nino split flow with -NAO block (a la 2009-2010), but at least it's a cold look...my 2 cents. Check out what appears to be a s/w over North Dakota on the 240 EURO. Going to need to keep our eye on that feature in future runs...assuming the general set-up stays the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Check out what appears to be a s/w over North Dakota on the 240 EURO. Going to need to keep our eye on that feature in future runs...assuming the general set-up stays the same. There is also some energy in TX that just kind of flattens out on the Euro just ahead of the s/w you're talking about. I'll be interested to see what the ENS has to say. Now that I have access to those if anyone needs an update I'll be able to give it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Day 10 is a classic look for southern snows with arctic HP in northern plains and PNA ridging. Of course, it also tends to leave us just cold and dry, too. Change that dry WNW 500 mb flow from WNW to WSW, which is usually moist, and we'd have major winter storm potential outside of the mountains in much of the SE US since the airmass is so large and cold. So, I'd want that trough axis roughly 10 degrees further west (~600 miles), which would make it much more moist via WSW flow and quite possibly still allow 850's for much of the well inland SE to be colder than 0C (to allow for snow) though it would have to be warmer. I know, much easier said than done! That's why cold like that is usually pretty dry in the SE. Look back at old 500 mb maps in the SE US during MAJOR winter storms and you'll virtually every time see WSW (to sometimes SW) 500 mb flow over the SE US while the wintry precip. is falling. Regardless, I'm taking the 10 day Euro with a huge grain for obvious reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 And where's all my danged rain?? The closer they get the quicker they disappear! I still see some change, but it better not leave off the rains. The beauty of Goofy is if you don't like this run there's always another coming that may have what you want. And the trend has been for gulf moisture, so the 12z can get side tracked but the rains need to get back to stay. A two inch drencher, that verifies as a quarter inch yawner, is not a pattern change to believe in. I've been getting those for years now. Big whoop. Cold air into a continuing drought only gives you cold air. Feb. two years back is a prime example. I loved it, but two weeks of belowing freezing sunny days leaves you wanting something extra. Give me lots of rain and borderline temps anyday. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 12z European model hints at the potential coming of a severe cold air outbreak and possible major winter storm pattern for the eastern US near Christmas. The huge caveat being that this is a 240 hr forecast, but folks if this is showing up in 5 days I'll be sounding the alarms and shining up the ol' snow shoes! Potential for major phasing down the road looks significant between energy diving down the western ridge and whenever that energy in the Pacific starts to move eastward. It's highly possible the ECMWF is holding back that energy too much already, which if true, could make things *very* interesting for the 12/23 - 25 period. Thank you for pointing out the possibility of the Euro holding back energy. That may be more important than what's being talked about at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Post when ready burger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The 12z Euro ensemble mean is not so gung ho on severe cold as the operation is but it is def cold than the 00z....not saying that it is not possible but it is a trend in the right direction...the weeklies will be interesting tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Looks good long term. My 12z ensembles haven't updated on the euro yet, when they do i'll post a summary. I want to post a blog post too sometime today. I'm also a little miffed at the huge differences b/n the euro and gfs on the midweek storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Change that dry WNW 500 mb flow from WNW to WSW, which is usually moist, and we'd have major winter storm potential outside of the mountains in much of the SE US since the airmass is so large and cold. So, I'd want that trough axis roughly 10 degrees further west (~600 miles), which would make it much more moist via WSW flow and quite possibly still allow 850's for much of the well inland SE to be colder than 0C (to allow for snow) though it would have to be warmer. I know, much easier said than done! That's why cold like that is usually pretty dry in the SE. Look back at old 500 mb maps in the SE US during MAJOR winter storms and you'll virtually every time see WSW (to sometimes SW) 500 mb flow over the SE US while the wintry precip. is falling. Regardless, I'm taking the 10 day Euro with a huge grain for obvious reasons. If that lobe of energy stays separate and digs south, we'd be there. Yes, better if the trough axis were a wee bit further west. Also, the presence of the E Pac UL will be of great importance to our precip chances if it continues to trend south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Looks good long term. My 12z ensembles haven't updated on the euro yet, when they do i'll post a summary. I want to post a blog post too sometime today. I'm also a little miffed at the huge differences b/n the euro and gfs on the midweek storm . You're welcome to blog here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 New poster here and longtime lurker/model watcher. Thx everyone here for their expertise, insight and humor. Have loved following NC weather for over 40 years, living in Raleigh now but grew up in Gastonia where I noticed a lot of posters here reside. Look forward to this winter and here's hoping for a Feb. 79, Jan 88 or Jan 2000 redux out of this upcoming pattern! (or just a few flakes would be nice) Ahh..... Feb. '79, Jan.'88, and Jan. 2000. Remember all those very well here in the Upstate of SC. They were big winners. One could only hope to see one this winter like any one of those. In fact not any of the numerous snowstorms that happened in 2009/10, or 2010/11 could compare to any one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 18z continues the good look for around the 23rd...it's not quite cold enough but it's starting to look like this might be our best chance for right now at a winter storm. Hopefully it still has it five days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Hour 126 and the flakes are flying in the high country... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 18z continues the good look for around the 23rd...it's not quite cold enough but it's starting to look like this might be our best chance for right now at a winter storm. Hopefully it still has it five days from now. And it held the PNA ridge longer this run too, the SW entering CA on the 25th would be perfect if we could get the ridge and blocking to hold, it eventually cuts inland some hopefully we can time up one of these SW's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 looks similar to the euro op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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