December Forecast Discussion

[Poimen]

Folks,

Though I hope I'm wrong, my idea of punting all of December to no really cold pattern is looking better and better based on the 0Z suite of the warmer 11-15 GFS and now the Euro 6-10, which is sig. warmer than the prior two runs. The 0Z suite of these two op. models certainly wasn't kind to cold wx lovers.

In summary, the mirage effect of largely fake modeled solid cold continues with the 0Z.

I agree for the most part...but the 0Z EURO does offer some solace on day 10 with some hint of west coast ridging and a nice 1040 arctic HP spilling into the northern plains. Those two items can signal SE snow...but of course it needs to verify, which as you have pointed out is easier said than done, especially this year.

[msuwx]

Folks,

Though I hope I'm wrong, my idea of punting all of December to no really cold pattern is looking better and better based on the 0Z suite of the warmer 11-15 GFS and now the Euro 6-10, which is sig. warmer than the prior two runs. The 0Z suite of these two op. models certainly wasn't kind to cold wx lovers.

In summary, the mirage effect of largely fake modeled solid cold continues with the 0Z.

GFS and Euro are in agreement on a big-time cold shot coming down the chute into the Midwest and Plains late next week and into the weekend. Now it might not have a ton of staying power, but that's a good shot of cold headed down nonetheless.

When I look at what's ahead, I just don't see a lot that screams 'warm' pattern..... up and down, yes....but no sustained torching or anything like that.

[Cold Rain]

New poster here and longtime lurker/model watcher. Thx everyone here for their expertise, insight and humor. Have loved following NC weather for over 40 years, living in Raleigh now but grew up in Gastonia where I noticed a lot of posters here reside. Look forward to this winter and here's hoping for a Feb. 79, Jan 88 or Jan 2000 redux out of this upcoming pattern! (or just a few flakes would be nice)

Welcome aboard to the...board. We've got a fourth and goal from the 15, and we're trying to decide whether to go for it or punt December. There's confusion on the sidelines with the GFS, Euro, and CFS cold, warm, cold, warm. We've already started falsely twice and the play clock is running down. So if you could help us out here, that would be awesome.

[franklin NCwx]

Euro ensembles are very cold days 9&10.

[GaWx]

GFS and Euro are in agreement on a big-time cold shot coming down the chute into the Midwest and Plains late next week and into the weekend. Now it might not have a ton of staying power, but that's a good shot of cold headed down nonetheless.

When I look at what's ahead, I just don't see a lot that screams 'warm' pattern..... up and down, yes....but no sustained torching or anything like that.

I'm skeptical of even that because of what's been verifying vs. models. The GFS has clearly been exhibiting a significant cold bias whereas the Euro teased us with two very cold 6-10 day runs yesterday and now delays the cold to day 10. I just can't get excited about that for obvious reasons. Lucy pulling the football twice and then putting it back down for the period starting several days later is not a good sign. It may turn out to finally get cold day 10 or soon after for a few days, but the fact is that both the 0Z GFS and the 0Z Euro were quite a bit warmer than their respective predecessors. That in itself needed to be pointed out. The doodooey Pacific pattern has been winning out over -AO blocking to this point overall for the SE and the models have been trying to use the upcoming projected strong -NAO to get it really cold here. Now, they're pulling back. Bad sign IMO. We'll see what verifies after 12/20.

**Edited**

[msuwx]

Below is the 850mb temps from the end of the last 2 Euro runs.....0z today and 12z yesterday.

Yes, the shot of cold air is not as sharp with the 0z run, it is more of a widespread, longer-lasting look, including a fresh surge in the Midwest moving south.

12z yesterday...

0z today...

[FallsLake]

I'm skeptical of even that because of what's been verifying vs. models. The GFS has clearly been exhibiting a significant cold bias whereas the Euro teased us with two very cold 6-10 day runs yesterday and now delays the cold to day 10. I just can't get excited about that for obvious reasons. Lucy pulling the football twice and then putting it back down several days later is not a good sign. It may turn out to finally get cold day 10 or soon after for a few days, but the fact is that both the 0Z GFS and the 0Z Euro were quite a bit warner than their respective predecessors. That in itself needed to be pointed out.

I agree, we need to get this pattern change within the day 7 range to have more confidence. I don't like the direction (..up to positive) the NAO is heading. This would indicate only a brief cold snap; as shown on the 6z GFS this moring.

[Mr Bob]

I'm skeptical of even that because of what's been verifying vs. models. The GFS has clearly been exhibiting a significant cold bias whereas the Euro teased us with two very cold 6-10 day runs yesterday and now delays the cold to day 10. I just can't get excited about that for obvious reasons. Lucy pulling the football twice and then putting it back down several days later is not a good sign. It may turn out to finally get cold day 10 or soon after for a few days, but the fact is that both the 0Z GFS and the 0Z Euro were quite a bit warner than their respective predecessors. That in itself needed to be pointed out.

It is funny how we don't see the 384HR GFS panel when it shows warm air flooding the plains and SE....The 00Z Euro ens are not supremely different from the previous 0Z run....over all seasonal trending to slightly above by the end of the period. Eager to see the Euro weeklies tonight....

[msuwx]

I'm skeptical of even that because of what's been verifying vs. models. The GFS has clearly been exhibiting a significant cold bias whereas the Euro teased us with two very cold 6-10 day runs yesterday and now delays the cold to day 10. I just can't get excited about that for obvious reasons. Lucy pulling the football twice and then putting it back down for the period starting several days later is not a good sign. It may turn out to finally get cold day 10 or soon after for a few days, but the fact is that both the 0Z GFS and the 0Z Euro were quite a bit warmer than their respective predecessors. That in itself needed to be pointed out. The doodooey Pacific pattern has been winning out over -AO blocking to this point overall for the SE and the models have been trying to use the upcoming projected strong -NAO to get it really cold here. Now, they're pulling back. Bad sign IMO. We'll see what verifies after 12/20.

**Edited**

I am not really disagreeing with you, but I just don't see any signs of a warm pattern at the end of the operational Euro.

With it being such a chaotic upper level pattern ahead with disturbances flying around everywhere, each operational model run, you wind up with amplification of different disturbances and different shapes and orientations of troughs and cold shots.

We may wind up torching between Christmas and New Year, but I don't have a great feeling one way or another as of yet. To me, that period remains a mystery.

[mackerel_sky]

As the NAO goes torwards positive,isn't that usually when we get a big storm in the East?

[SnowNiner]

Canadian - looks like it takes a more northerly route with the shortwaves. Sfc low consolidates off mid-atlantic coast (hr108), then moves slowly up NE coast. Another wave drops in from the northwest, and looks like a close call in W NC/VA with storm re-forming in NC - that one again goes up NE coast and is stronger than the 1st storm...so, it has 2 noreaster's going up the coast underneath the west based block. Toward days 9-10, there is ridging building through Alaska, with colder air trying to work south.

That's what I like to hear. Any sign of a transition to an -EPO signature? Overall though it seems like we've taken a bit of a step back from yesterday morning. However it may be as Matt said, there's just too much energy floating around for the models to get a clear picture. Are we still on track to get a 50/50 low with one of the Noreasters next week? If we are, I'm hoping for a clearer pattern change.

[Southern Track]

I am not really disagreeing with you, but I just don't see any signs of a warm pattern at the end of the operational Euro.

With it being such a chaotic upper level pattern ahead with disturbances flying around everywhere, each operational model run, you wind up with amplification of different disturbances and different shapes and orientations of troughs and cold shots.

We may wind up torching between Christmas and New Year, but I don't have a great feeling one way or another as of yet. To me, that period remains a mystery.

You mentioned it on your blog today, but it seems there is some agreement between the GFS and Euro on the cold shot right around Christmas and a system riding that boundary. Both show it getting squashed right now, but it's something to watch.

[Mr Bob]

DT says important update coming soon on FB regarding systems in the next two weeks, esp. Xmas system.

Pins and needles.....

[Brick Tamland]

You mentioned it on your blog today, but it seems there is some agreement between the GFS and Euro on the cold shot right around Christmas and a system riding that boundary. Both show it getting squashed right now, but it's something to watch.

I agree. I think that the system in the middle of next week is setting the stage and is the beginning of the real pattern change. It is what will set off things and bring a really active pattern with a lot of energy. There is so much going on after that it is making it hard for the models to get a real grasp of everything. I think that low in the Gulf right before Christmas needs to be watched and could end up bringing us some fun.

[franklin NCwx]

It is funny how we don't see the 384HR GFS panel when it shows warm air flooding the plains and SE....The 00Z Euro ens are not supremely different from the previous 0Z run....over all seasonal trending to slightly above by the end of the period. Eager to see the Euro weeklies tonight....

What does it do with the epo in the 11-15 day timeframe?

[buckeyefan1]

Pins and needles.....

Indeed.....ugh....posts like these belong in the banter/tidbits thread

Keep on topic and I won't have to give out warnings today

[NCSNOW]

I agree, we need to get this pattern change within the day 7 range to have more confidence. I don't like the direction (..up to positive) the NAO is heading. This would indicate only a brief cold snap; as shown on the 6z GFS this moring.

From the 0z runs. Not sure why you think the NAO is heading positive. The AO has been in the tank, it can't stay at rock bottom forever, so even with it relaxing from time to time it only flucuates to normal slightlybelow normal readings. The trend for NAO/AO to average out negative is most likely here to stay, just like the negative pna is most likely to stay negative as well for the forseeable future.

[Mr Bob]

Indeed.....ugh....posts like these belong in the banter/tidbits thread

Keep on topic and I won't have to give out warnings today

And the post which prompted my response was also apropos of nothing....

[buckeyefan1]

And the post which prompted my response was also apropos of nothing....

I was agreeing with you sorry if you took my post the wrong way

[NC_hailstorm]

ECMWF now in agreement with the GFS in moving a strat block/ridge(10/30 hPa) over north central Canada from Alaska and keeping the PV in Siberia.

ECMWF guidance only goes out 10 days,GFS 16 days so it's best to wait and see if the feature in question is there in it's window.The difference I see is it is moving it in slower,GFS is faster.

Also like to comment on la la land.GFS is still showing a very strong warming coming up from Asia working back into Alaska.This is what I'm watching closely.

[burgertime]

Just in case anyone is wondering the 12z GFS has little in the way of even rain for us next week. The midweek system blows up off the coast of the NE (not effecting the NE at all) and looks like it's still going to help create the split flow we need we'll see where it goes in the LR.

[Bevo]

Just in case anyone is wondering the 12z GFS has little in the way of even rain for us next week. The midweek system blows up off the coast of the NE (not effecting the NE at all) and looks like it's still going to help create the split flow we need we'll see where it goes in the LR.

Agreed. That split flow (if it materializes) will personally lend more to my confidence in what the Euro progs. It is superior in split flow patterns in my opinion.

[burgertime]

GFS looks great at 240 and it's still showing potential for around the 23rd.

[burgertime]

Something else to note is the LR GFS continues the trend of going moderate to seasonal in the LR with the cold air bottled up north.

[Southern Track]

GFS looks great at 240 and it's still showing potential for around the 23rd.

With the variability of the models lately, it's pretty impressive the consistency of that cold front with the potential low pressure still showing up with each run at that time frame(GFS). Maybe the players on the table are a little more constant.

[Poimen]

the 12Z GFS was also very similar to last night's EURO by days 9-10, with +1040 arctic HP spilling into the northern half of the US during that time. I hope those two are sniffing out something in time frame that can maybe give us at least a taste of winter in the south around Christmas.

[packbacker]

the 12Z GFS was also very similar to last night's EURO by days 9-10, with +1040 arctic HP spilling into the northern half of the US during that time. I hope those two are sniffing out something in time frame that can maybe give us at least a taste of winter in the south around Christmas.

It sure looks like we will have a 3 day period where the pattern may be favorable for something wintery, small window but it's a shot. Hopefully the models are to quick to break it down.

[calculus1]

Just in case anyone is wondering the 12z GFS has little in the way of even rain for us next week. The midweek system blows up off the coast of the NE (not effecting the NE at all) and looks like it's still going to help create the split flow we need we'll see where it goes in the LR.

The minimal low pressure associated with this system (Mon/Tue/Wed) rides up west of (or over) the Apps before reforming off the NC coast. Thus, there is very little precip that makes it east of the mountains. GA and SC still seem to do quite well in the rain department though, with this system. If that low (even as weak as it is currently being modeled) were to take a more southern route, then perhaps we can get some rain thrown up into NC.

[Jon]

The minimal low pressure associated with this system (Mon/Tue/Wed) rides up west of (or over) the Apps before reforming off the NC coast. Thus, there is very little precip that makes it east of the mountains. GA and SC still seem to do quite well in the rain department though, with this system. If that low (even as weak as it is currently being modeled) were to take a more southern route, then perhaps we can get some rain thrown up into NC.

Unless it takes a more inland track, like just over the foothills of NC or even over the mountains without the low reforming off the coast, the moisture seems to be on the east side of the storm until it gets above VA. Looks like there's plenty of moisture if it takes that track.

[NCSNOW]

Unless it takes a more inland track, like just over the foothills of NC or even over the mountains without the low reforming off the coast, the moisture seems to be on the east side of the storm until it gets above VA. Looks like there's plenty of moisture if it takes that track.

Miller B: Gonna get a Carolina Split with this one and the qpf will be minimal east of apps in NC. I wouldn't get my hopes up for any drought releif in the area I just mentioned east of the apps from this one.