WilkesboroDude Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 generally when your in the bulls-eye this far out, you are screwed by the time it gets here. ref. Dec.19th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro ensemble stayed cool and unsettled in the Southeast 11-15. AK still in the freezer but above normal heights over Hudson Bay and much of eastern Canada support the cool and stormy Southeast. No polar pig so arctic air is not likely with every wave, but below normal temps are forecast on average. Well then lets root for the GFS Ensembles. Boo EURO. It's encouraging though that the EURO seems to slowly be coming around to the blocking that the GFS forecasted a few days ago. I'm hoping it will continue to fall to the GFS for the pacific as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 generally when your in the bulls-eye this far out, you are screwed by the time it gets here. ref. Dec.19th Maybe if I were referring to a specific storm or solution. Instead, I was referring to a pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 eastern/central NC looks to be the place to be during the holiday week. several chances for snow with the suppressed look of the GFS. I believe I rather take my chances in the western part of nc. especially the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I believe I rather take my chances in the western part of nc. especially the mtns. Other than upslope reasons? That block isnt gonna allow much. I have no dog in this fight so I'm not being a weenie here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Just looking at the euroENS, I still think there's some interesting possibilities with the day 6 and 7 system. I'll make a blog post later tonight about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Too bad it's just a hair too warm in the mtns. The Euro is winding up a bomb! yes but these storms can be so dynamic they can create they're own cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Just looking at the euroENS, I still think there's some interesting possibilities with the day 6 and 7 system. I'll make a blog post later tonight about it. great man, sure enjoy reading your opinion, or I should say expertize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 18z GFS looked pretty cold in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 FYI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 FYI: I don't recall there being a very localized 4 to 8 inch snowstorm in Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I don't recall there being a very localized 4 to 8 inch snowstorm in Mississippi. That's where AntiWidre lives, so it's probably real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 yes but these storms can be so dynamic they can create they're own cold air No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 yes but these storms can be so dynamic they can create they're own cold air Post #9 in the weenie hand book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 New poster here and longtime lurker/model watcher. Thx everyone here for their expertise, insight and humor. Have loved following NC weather for over 40 years, living in Raleigh now but grew up in Gastonia where I noticed a lot of posters here reside. Look forward to this winter and here's hoping for a Feb. 79, Jan 88 or Jan 2000 redux out of this upcoming pattern! (or just a few flakes would be nice) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 New poster here and longtime lurker/model watcher. Thx everyone here for their expertise, insight and humor. Have loved following NC weather for over 40 years, living in Raleigh now but grew up in Gastonia where I noticed a lot of posters here reside. Look forward to this winter and here's hoping for a Feb. 79, Jan 88 or Jan 2000 redux out of this upcoming pattern! (or just a few flakes would be nice) Welcome, that's a powerhouse list of storms you got there. Not sure the SE board could handle one of those! Server meltdown, a la Chernobyl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 New poster here and longtime lurker/model watcher. Thx everyone here for their expertise, insight and humor. Have loved following NC weather for over 40 years, living in Raleigh now but grew up in Gastonia where I noticed a lot of posters here reside. Look forward to this winter and here's hoping for a Feb. 79, Jan 88 or Jan 2000 redux out of this upcoming pattern! (or just a few flakes would be nice) Welcome to Raleigh Hope you enjoy Americanwx as much as I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The block is really starting flex its muscle by hour 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GFS looks like its saying "NEXT" on this event....oh GFS...my guess is we are in the "terrible" window of the GFS right now. We shall see. I still think this storm is not as great (for the SE) as once advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 this run won't please our NE friends. let's just get our 50/50 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Well the storm for the SE still misses next week as Delta alluded to...however it still shows potential for around Christmas time. Out to 262 and looks similar to 12z...not as cold though for our area...but certainly not a bad look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Well the storm for the SE still misses next week as Delta alluded to...however it still shows potential for around Christmas time. Out to 262 and looks similar to 12z...not as cold though for our area...but certainly not a bad look. It's a pretty good look... still agreeing with a split flow pattern developing. That'll tap arctic air straight from Santa's workshop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 It's a pretty good look... still agreeing with a split flow pattern developing. That'll tap arctic air straight from Santa's workshop. Don't really like the very LR...but it looked like it might be relaxing just to reload which is probably more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Folks, The 0Z Goofy is definitely not good if you like it cold. It is the warmest run in at least five runs in the 2nd week. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Big Aleutian Low setting up toward the end of the run. First time in a while we've seen one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Don't really like the very LR...but it looked like it might be relaxing just to reload which is probably more realistic. GFS brings the building pieces together but with so much energy moving around each of the jet streams it never really phases much of anything.. thus the "loose" height field over Eastern NA, and some serious model confusion. A lot of model flip flopping will be occuring during this pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I think the GFS is off the rocker on the storm next week. It phases it into the storm before it, which is going to drop a lot of rain on the Carolinas/Georgia for the first time in months (sunday/monday). That will be first time a lot of people realize the pattern is changing. Without the big phase shown on the euro, we don't get the cold air dragged down and the GFS is consequently warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Canadian - looks like it takes a more northerly route with the shortwaves. Sfc low consolidates off mid-atlantic coast (hr108), then moves slowly up NE coast. Another wave drops in from the northwest, and looks like a close call in W NC/VA with storm re-forming in NC - that one again goes up NE coast and is stronger than the 1st storm...so, it has 2 noreaster's going up the coast underneath the west based block. Toward days 9-10, there is ridging building through Alaska, with colder air trying to work south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Verbatim, the Canadian definitely has some snow in the NC mountains with that 2nd storm (hr156-180). Bottom line, stay tuned with this kind of solid west NAO forming...at a minimum, mtns should get in on some upslope snow at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Folks, The 0Z Goofy is definitely not good if you like it cold. It is the warmest run in at least five runs in the 2nd week. Next! Folks, Though I hope I'm wrong, my idea of punting all of December to no really cold pattern is looking better and better based on the 0Z suite of the warmer 11-15 GFS and now the Euro 6-10, which is sig. warmer than the prior two runs. The 0Z suite of these two op. models certainly wasn't kind to cold wx lovers. In summary, the mirage effect of largely fake modeled solid cold continues with the 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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