kvegas-wx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Looks like my point and click Accuwx forecast is trying to sniff out the 12/26 timeframe for .4 snow. Regardless, the temp trends are certainly on the negative slope through post Christmas week at least for NC northward. Love to see the models popping out the short waves regardless of the temps. I need rain/snow or some form of liquid to get rid of this mini drought! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 What would that big basketball Low in the Pacific do next in that kind of setup? I'm guessing the pacific pattern isn't as Doo-doey as it has been? Hopefully stay right there, since it's blocked in from the east/north. It's responsible for the much welcomed split flow. Hopefully a red-tagger corrects me if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Hopefully stay right there, since it's blocked in from the east/north. It's responsible for the much welcomed split flow. Hopefully a red-tagger corrects me if I am wrong. Agree. What you would like to see is for the flow to undercut the W U.S. ridging...i.e. shortwaves to eject off of that E Pacific low and track into S California, then advance east underneath the carved out trough in the E U.S. A healthy subtropical jet would help with that. 12z GFS Ensemble generally agrees with the pattern evolution of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Hopefully stay right there, since it's blocked in from the east/north. It's responsible for the much welcomed split flow. Hopefully a red-tagger corrects me if I am wrong. Agree. What you would like to see is for the flow to undercut the W U.S. ridging...i.e. shortwaves to eject off of that E Pacific low and track into S California, then advance east underneath the carved out trough in the E U.S. A healthy subtropical jet would help with that. 12z GFS Ensemble generally agrees with the pattern evolution of the GFS. Thanks. It was what I was thinking as well. I think the post of the week so far may have been by WOW when he showed the SOI tanking. He said that would force the Pacific to change and should start the subtropical jet. It appears that is what the modeling is starting to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Ummmm....this surely wouldn't suck.... Ensemble support! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I am also interested to see what the -SOI might have on the pattern in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Agree. What you would like to see is for the flow to undercut the W U.S. ridging...i.e. shortwaves to eject off of that E Pacific low and track into S California, then advance east underneath the carved out trough in the E U.S. A healthy subtropical jet would help with that. 12z GFS Ensemble generally agrees with the pattern evolution of the GFS. Thanks! It seems there isn't any shortage of SW's so if, and a big IF, that pattern were to develop than I would like our chances down the road. Why aren't you a red-tagger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Too bad it's just a hair too warm in the mtns. The Euro is winding up a bomb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro has 980mb sfc low in NE NC at hr168, with strong upper low in SE NC....850mb 0 deg Birmingham to Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro goes bonkers with the storm up north and is a bit slower than the 00z was last night. It looks as of 192 that more cold air will be coming down once the storm fully gets out and sets up. Too early to say for sure but it doesn't look bad that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I just saw this on the WxSouth facebook page. I hope it is okay to put here since it is talking about the forecast for next week. New European run is doing what the GFS did a couple days ago, creating a Very strong Southeast Storm that looks to head up the East Coast. Rain and thunderstorms Southeast, turning to snow Tennessee Valley and Appalachians, perhaps Damming in the lee side of the Apps , with pressures dropping to 984 mb in eastern NC. Looks like an impressive storm, but not cold initially, so primarily rain storm that could end as snow. **edit...By Wednesday midday (1 week from now) the pressure has dropped to 976 in eastern VA and southern Maryland..Big time blizzard in the Apps with that track and strength if this run is accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Stout noreaster with 'dynamic' cooling in the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro is bringing in some major cold at 210...-8 850's in TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Stout noreaster with 'dynamic' cooling in the interior Would it be worthy of a name? Also, isn't a known bias of the Euro for it to be too warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro finally pops a +PNA western ridge as the 12/19 storm phases and moves up the coast. UL over E Pac dropping south, prepped to cut off as we move into Christmas week. Split flow pattern similar to GFS. By 222 hrs, UL in pos tilt.. it's staying there... Prepare for Glory!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 One good thing about this run is that the 850's in northeastern Canada are much colder as opposed to the 00z which had those cold temps in northwestern Canada....it's not much but it is nosing down on our side of the US. @240 by 12z on Saturday the temp is around 30 degrees...this is the cold air we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro does have one heck of a storm for NE. Snowing for a solid 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 any engery in the sw for christmas week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Key difference at hr240 is that the Euro maintains troughing in Alaska/NW Canada, while GFS has ridging in that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Key difference at hr240 is that the Euro maintains troughing in Alaska/NW Canada, while GFS has ridging in that region. Yeah, looks like its fixing to get pretty warm at 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 With most signals pointing to cold,I wouldn't be so sure! Yeah, looks like its fixing to get pretty warm at 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro finally pops a +PNA western ridge as the 12/19 storm phases and moves up the coast. UL over E Pac dropping south, prepped to cut off as we move into Christmas week. Split flow pattern similar to GFS. By 222 hrs, UL in pos tilt.. it's staying there... Prepare for Glory!! Key difference at hr240 is that the Euro maintains troughing in Alaska/NW Canada, while GFS has ridging in that region. I'm confused, don't these two issues contradict themselves? Does the EURO create a ridge on the west coast like the GFS or not? I want to prepare for glory dang it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'm confused, don't these two issues contradict themselves? Does the EURO create a ridge on the west coast like the GFS or not? I want to prepare for glory dang it! Just my opinion the Euro is actually coming around to the GFS, so I see what the Euro is showing as a good sign...it's showing the cold air starting to funnel in...Euro ENS should be more telling when someone can update us on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'm confused, don't these two issues contradict themselves? Does the EURO create a ridge on the west coast like the GFS or not? I want to prepare for glory dang it! As the run continues, Euro does continue to want to push the PV into AK which will put a kink in bringing arctic air down. I was focusing on the emergence of a stormy pattern looking more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 eastern/central NC looks to be the place to be during the holiday week. several chances for snow with the suppressed look of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro ensemble stayed cool and unsettled in the Southeast 11-15. AK still in the freezer but above normal heights over Hudson Bay and much of eastern Canada support the cool and stormy Southeast. No polar pig so arctic air is not likely with every wave, but below normal temps are forecast on average. Just my opinion the Euro is actually coming around to the GFS, so I see what the Euro is showing as a good sign...it's showing the cold air starting to funnel in...Euro ENS should be more telling when someone can update us on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 eastern/central NC looks to be the place to be during the holiday week. several chances for snow with the suppressed look of the GFS. Ill take my chances as much in central VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro ensemble stayed cool and unsettled in the Southeast 11-15. AK still in the freezer but above normal heights over Hudson Bay and much of eastern Canada support the cool and stormy Southeast. No polar pig so arctic air is not likely with every wave, but below normal temps are forecast on average. Appreciate the Info!!! Most of the time super cold air it's just dry around here. I'll take my chances with the pattern advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro ensemble stayed cool and unsettled in the Southeast 11-15. AK still in the freezer but above normal heights over Hudson Bay and much of eastern Canada support the cool and stormy Southeast. No polar pig so arctic air is not likely with every wave, but below normal temps are forecast on average. Thanks, right now just seasonable weather is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Ill take my chances as much in central VA generally when central NC sees snow, central VA does as well with a few exceptions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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